FC Ingolstadt 04
vs
Rot-Weiß Essen
3. Liga prediction
Our model says: FC Ingolstadt 04 0–1 Rot-Weiß Essen
The model makes it 34% FC Ingolstadt 04, 29% draw, 37% Rot-Weiß Essen — fair odds of 2.94, 3.45 and 2.70. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1.
Expected goals: FC Ingolstadt 04 1.25, Rot-Weiß Essen 1.33.
Both teams to score: 53%. Over 2.5 goals: 48%, under 2.5: 52%.
Model confidence: Low.
A tight game: FC Ingolstadt 04 and Rot-Weiß Essen are within 3 points of each other, so the draw is a real outcome here.
Published · updated
Key facts
- FC Ingolstadt 04 are 13th on 11 points from 9 games; Rot-Weiß Essen are 3rd on 18 points from 9 games — 3. Liga.
- FC Ingolstadt 04 have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 3-0 win away to Waldhof Mannheim.
- Rot-Weiß Essen are unbeaten in their last 5 games (3 won), most recently a 2-0 win at home to Fortuna Köln.
- Last 6 meetings: Rot-Weiß Essen 4 wins to 1, 1 draw; the most recent, 11 April 2026, ended Rot-Weiß Essen 4–1 FC Ingolstadt 04.
More 3. Liga predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: FC Ingolstadt 04 vs Rot-Weiß Essen
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Rot-Weiß Essen at 37% here. Across 3,801 settled matches (as of 16 October 2026), 2,969 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.5% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.6%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into FC Ingolstadt 04 vs Rot-Weiß Essen
FC Ingolstadt 04
- W3-0away to Waldhof Mannheim14 October 2026
- L2-4SV Wehen11 October 2026
- L0-3away to FC Viktoria Köln19 September 2026
- L1-2Hoffenheim II16 September 2026
- W1-0away to FC Saarbrücken12 September 2026
Rot-Weiß Essen
- W2-0Fortuna Köln13 October 2026
- D3-3away to Preußen Münster9 October 2026
- D1-1Hansa Rostock20 September 2026
- W2-1away to Waldhof Mannheim16 September 2026
- W6-2Würzburger Kickers12 September 2026
What these results say
- FC Ingolstadt 04 scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for FC Ingolstadt 04 had three goals or more.
- Rot-Weiß Essen went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- Rot-Weiß Essen scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Rot-Weiß Essen conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
3. Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | FC Ingolstadt 04 | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 12 | 15 | -3 | 11 |
| 3 | Rot-Weiß Essen | 9 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 18 | 12 | +6 | 18 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
FC Ingolstadt 04
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 11% today
Rot-Weiß Essen
Chance to finish in the top four · 62% today
From our 3. Liga season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. Each figure is that side's chance once this match ends in a win, a draw or a defeat for it, with every other match still left to the model. Positions in the table, not competition rules: what a place is worth differs from league to league.
Head-to-head: FC Ingolstadt 04 vs Rot-Weiß Essen
- 11 April 2026Rot-Weiß Essen 4–1 FC Ingolstadt 043. Liga
- 8 November 2025FC Ingolstadt 04 1–2 Rot-Weiß Essen3. Liga
- 22 February 2025Rot-Weiß Essen 2–0 FC Ingolstadt 043. Liga
- 21 September 2024FC Ingolstadt 04 2–2 Rot-Weiß Essen3. Liga
- 28 April 2024Rot-Weiß Essen 4–0 FC Ingolstadt 043. Liga
- 25 November 2023FC Ingolstadt 04 2–1 Rot-Weiß Essen3. Liga
Leading scorers: FC Ingolstadt 04 and Rot-Weiß Essen
FC Ingolstadt 04
GoalsAssists
- L. Lokotsch10
Rot-Weiß Essen
GoalsAssists
- M. Janssen10
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
FC Ingolstadt 04 carry a model rating of 6.23 against 6.41 for Rot-Weiß Essen. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.25 goals for FC Ingolstadt 04 and 1.33 for Rot-Weiß Essen. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
FC Ingolstadt 04 rate 0.52 in attack and 1.81 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Rot-Weiß Essen rate 0.61 and 1.48.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives FC Ingolstadt 04 a 0.3% chance of the title and Rot-Weiß Essen 13.4%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,819 correct results out of 3,801 settled predictions (48%), with 383 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Rot-Weiß Essen the highest probability at 37%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.25 expected goals for FC Ingolstadt 04 against 1.33 for Rot-Weiß Essen. FC Ingolstadt 04's attack/defence rating is 0.52/1.81 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.61/1.48 for Rot-Weiß Essen.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
FC Ingolstadt 04 at home · Rot-Weiß Essen away
League matches only, 3. Liga, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All 3. Liga matches this season: FC Ingolstadt 04 9, Rot-Weiß Essen 9.
FC Ingolstadt 04 score most often in the 16–30 minute window (3 goals); Rot-Weiß Essen have let in 1 there.
Rot-Weiß Essen score most often in the 76–90 minute window (7 goals); FC Ingolstadt 04 have let in 5 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
FC Ingolstadt 04
- vs MSV Duisburg24 Oct · 3. Ligawin 33%
- at Havelse31 Oct · 3. Ligawin 41%
- vs Fortuna Düsseldorf7 Nov · 3. Ligawin 36%
- at Stuttgart II22 Nov · 3. Ligawin 32%
- vs SSV Jahn Regensburg29 Nov · 3. Ligawin 43%
Rot-Weiß Essen
- vs SSV Jahn Regensburg23 Oct · 3. Ligawin 53%
- vs RB Leipzig27 Oct · DFB Pokalwin 13%
- at SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach1 Nov · 3. Ligawin 47%
- vs Alemannia Aachen7 Nov · 3. Ligawin 50%
- at Verl21 Nov · 3. Ligawin 33%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.