Energie Cottbus
vs
1. FC Nürnberg
2. Bundesliga prediction
Our model says: Energie Cottbus 1–2 1. FC Nürnberg
The model makes it 34% Energie Cottbus, 23% draw, 43% 1. FC Nürnberg — fair odds of 2.94, 4.35 and 2.33. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2 (7%).
Expected goals: Energie Cottbus 1.95, 1. FC Nürnberg 2.22.
Both teams to score: 77%. Over 2.5 goals: 79%, under 2.5: 21%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Edge to 1. FC Nürnberg: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.
Published · updated
Key facts
- Energie Cottbus are 8th on 8 points from 7 games; 1. FC Nürnberg are 2nd on 17 points from 7 games — 2. Bundesliga.
- Energie Cottbus have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-3 defeat away to SV Darmstadt 98.
- 1. FC Nürnberg are unbeaten in their last 5 games (3 won), most recently a 4-4 draw at home to VfL Wolfsburg.
More 2. Bundesliga predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Energie Cottbus vs 1. FC Nürnberg
Has the model earned this number?
It puts 1. FC Nürnberg at 43% here. Across 3,740 settled matches (as of 15 October 2026), 1,748 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.7% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Energie Cottbus vs 1. FC Nürnberg
Energie Cottbus
- L1-3away to SV Darmstadt 9810 October 2026
- D1-1FC St. Pauli20 September 2026
- W3-0away to Karlsruher SC13 September 2026
- D4-4away to VfL Wolfsburg5 September 2026
- L3-4SpVgg Greuther Fürth29 August 2026
1. FC Nürnberg
- D4-4VfL Wolfsburg10 October 2026
- W1-0away to Karlsruher SC19 September 2026
- W2-1Hannover 9611 September 2026
- D2-2away to Holstein Kiel5 September 2026
- W4-1Arminia Bielefeld29 August 2026
What these results say
- Energie Cottbus scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Energie Cottbus failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Energie Cottbus conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 1. FC Nürnberg went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- 1. FC Nürnberg scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- 1. FC Nürnberg conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
2. Bundesliga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Energie Cottbus | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 15 | 16 | -1 | 8 |
| 2 | 1. FC Nürnberg | 7 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 20 | 10 | +10 | 17 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Energie Cottbus
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 13% today
1. FC Nürnberg
Chance to finish in the top four · 64% today
From our 2. Bundesliga season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. Each figure is that side's chance once this match ends in a win, a draw or a defeat for it, with every other match still left to the model. Positions in the table, not competition rules: what a place is worth differs from league to league.
Leading scorers: Energie Cottbus and 1. FC Nürnberg
Energie Cottbus
GoalsAssists
- J. Butler41
- T. Ciğerci41
1. FC Nürnberg
GoalsAssists
- M. Zoma70
- P. Scobel51
- A. Marhiev32
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Energie Cottbus carry a model rating of 6.5 against 6.65 for 1. FC Nürnberg. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 1.95 goals for Energie Cottbus and 2.22 for 1. FC Nürnberg. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Energie Cottbus rate 0.85 in attack and 1.77 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; 1. FC Nürnberg rate 0.88 and 1.33.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Energie Cottbus a 0.6% chance of the title and 1. FC Nürnberg 17.5%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,819 correct results out of 3,801 settled predictions (48%), with 383 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives 1. FC Nürnberg the highest probability at 43%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.95 expected goals for Energie Cottbus against 2.22 for 1. FC Nürnberg. Energie Cottbus's attack/defence rating is 0.85/1.77 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.88/1.33 for 1. FC Nürnberg.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Energie Cottbus at home · 1. FC Nürnberg away
League matches only, 2. Bundesliga, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Position by match
Energie Cottbus1. FC Nürnberg
Energie Cottbus are 7th after 7 2. Bundesliga matches (between 2nd and 10th so far); 1. FC Nürnberg are 2nd after 7 (between 1st and 2nd). Rebuilt from the season's results after each side's matches (x-axis: that side's match number); ties split on goal difference, then goals scored.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All 2. Bundesliga matches this season: Energie Cottbus 7, 1. FC Nürnberg 7.
Energie Cottbus score most often in the 61–75 minute window (4 goals); 1. FC Nürnberg have let in 0 there.
1. FC Nürnberg score most often in the 61–75 minute window (5 goals); Energie Cottbus have let in 1 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
Energie Cottbus
- at 1. FC Heidenheim24 Oct · 2. Bundesligawin 22%
- vs VfL Bochum30 Oct · 2. Bundesligawin 44%
- at Eintracht Braunschweig6 Nov · 2. Bundesligawin 36%
- vs Hertha BSC22 Nov · 2. Bundesligawin 35%
- at 1. FC Magdeburg29 Nov · 2. Bundesligawin 27%
1. FC Nürnberg
- vs 1. FC Kaiserslautern24 Oct · 2. Bundesligawin 45%
- at Bayer Leverkusen27 Oct · DFB Pokalwin 10%
- at FC St. Pauli1 Nov · 2. Bundesligawin 32%
- vs SV Darmstadt 987 Nov · 2. Bundesligawin 57%
- vs Eintracht Braunschweig21 Nov · 2. Bundesligawin 57%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.