Frosinone
vs
Sassuolo
Serie A prediction
Our model says: Frosinone 1–0 Sassuolo
The model makes it 41% Frosinone, 28% draw, 31% Sassuolo — fair odds of 2.44, 3.57 and 3.23. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Frosinone 1.48, Sassuolo 1.24.
Both teams to score: 55%. Over 2.5 goals: 51%, under 2.5: 49%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published · updated
Key facts
- Frosinone are 9th on 10 points from 6 games; Sassuolo are 11th on 8 points from 6 games — Serie A.
- Frosinone have won 3 of their last 5 games, most recently a 0-3 defeat away to Napoli.
- Sassuolo have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-1 draw at home to AC Milan.
- Last 6 meetings: level at 2 wins each, 2 draws; the most recent, 2 September 2026, ended Sassuolo 1–1 Frosinone.
More Serie A predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Frosinone vs Sassuolo
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Frosinone at 41% here. Across 3,740 settled matches (as of 15 October 2026), 1,748 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.7% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Frosinone vs Sassuolo
Frosinone
- L0-3away to Napoli10 October 2026
- W2-0Como20 September 2026
- D1-1away to Genoa12 September 2026
- W3-2Venezia6 September 2026
- W3-0away to Fiorentina29 August 2026
Sassuolo
- D1-1AC Milan11 October 2026
- L1-2away to Monza18 September 2026
- W3-2Juventus13 September 2026
- D2-2away to Bologna6 September 2026
- W2-1Torino29 August 2026
What these results say
- Frosinone scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Sassuolo scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Sassuolo conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Both sides scored in every one of these 5 matches for Sassuolo.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Who is missing for Frosinone vs Sassuolo
Frosinone
- D. Birligeamuscle injury
- F. Grillitschthigh injury
Sassuolo
- D. Bolocamuscle injury
- F. Leysenknee injury
- I. Konebroken leg
- J. Idzesmuscle injury
- Y. Pazknee injury
- E. Pieragnoloknee injuryDoubtful
From our data provider's injury and suspension report, refreshed twice a day. Doubtful means the player may still be named in the squad. The model's probabilities do not yet account for absences.
Serie A table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Frosinone | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 9 | 7 | +2 | 10 |
| 11 | Sassuolo | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 10 | 10 | 0 | 8 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Frosinone
Chance to finish in the top four · 5% today
From our Serie A season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. Each figure is that side's chance once this match ends in a win, a draw or a defeat for it, with every other match still left to the model. Positions in the table, not competition rules: what a place is worth differs from league to league.
Head-to-head: Frosinone vs Sassuolo
- 2 September 2026Sassuolo 1–1 FrosinoneCoppa Italia
- 13 May 2025Sassuolo 0–1 FrosinoneSerie B
- 14 December 2024Frosinone 1–2 SassuoloSerie B
- 9 March 2024Sassuolo 1–0 FrosinoneSerie A
- 17 September 2023Frosinone 4–2 SassuoloSerie A
- 5 May 2019Sassuolo 2–2 FrosinoneSerie A
Leading scorers: Frosinone and Sassuolo
Frosinone
GoalsAssists
- A. Raimondo40
- G. Kvernadze31
Sassuolo
GoalsAssists
- Vasilije Adžić31
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Frosinone carry a model rating of 6.9 against 6.87 for Sassuolo. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.48 goals for Frosinone and 1.24 for Sassuolo. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Frosinone rate 1.03 in attack and 0.93 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Sassuolo rate 1.06 and 1.03.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Frosinone a 0.5% chance of the title and Sassuolo 0%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,819 correct results out of 3,801 settled predictions (48%), with 383 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Frosinone the highest probability at 41%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.48 expected goals for Frosinone against 1.24 for Sassuolo. Frosinone's attack/defence rating is 1.03/0.93 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 1.06/1.03 for Sassuolo.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Frosinone at home · Sassuolo away
League matches only, Serie A, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Position by match
FrosinoneSassuolo
Frosinone are 9th after 6 Serie A matches (between 4th and 17th so far); Sassuolo are 10th after 6 (between 9th and 15th). Rebuilt from the season's results after each side's matches (x-axis: that side's match number); ties split on goal difference, then goals scored.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Serie A matches this season: Frosinone 6, Sassuolo 6.
Frosinone score most often in the 31–45 minute window (3 goals); Sassuolo have let in 1 there.
Sassuolo score most often in the 76–90 minute window (4 goals); Frosinone have let in 0 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
Frosinone
- at Atalanta25 Oct · Serie Awin 26%
- vs Lecce29 Oct · Serie Awin 50%
- vs Torino1 Nov · Serie Awin 44%
- at Cagliari7 Nov · Serie Awin 33%
- at AC Milan22 Nov · Serie Awin 23%
Sassuolo
- at Como24 Oct · Serie Awin 21%
- vs Lazio27 Oct · Serie Awin 33%
- vs Fiorentina2 Nov · Serie Awin 40%
- at AS Roma7 Nov · Serie Awin 14%
- vs Genoa22 Nov · Serie Awin 45%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.