Venezia
vs
Napoli
Serie A prediction
Our model says: Venezia 0–2 Napoli
The model makes it 12% Venezia, 20% draw, 68% Napoli — fair odds of 8.33, 5.00 and 1.47. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 0-2 (12%).
Expected goals: Venezia 0.78, Napoli 2.48.
Both teams to score: 50%. Over 2.5 goals: 63%, under 2.5: 37%.
Model confidence: High.
One-sided: Napoli are clearly the stronger team on the model's ratings. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 68%, 20% were drawn and the underdog won 12%.
Published · updated
Key facts
- Venezia are bottom on 0 points from 6 games; Napoli are 8th on 10 points from 6 games — Serie A.
- Venezia have not won in their last 5 games, most recently a 1-3 defeat away to Atalanta.
- Napoli are unbeaten in 3 games, most recently a 3-0 win at home to Frosinone.
- Last 4 meetings: Napoli 3 wins to 0, 1 draw; the most recent, 16 March 2025, ended Venezia 0–0 Napoli.
More Serie A predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Venezia vs Napoli
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Napoli at 68% here. Across 3,740 settled matches (as of 15 October 2026), 310 forecasts have landed in the 65–100% band; those outcomes actually happened 62.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 74.1%. In this range the model is over-confident, so read the figure above as optimistic rather than literal.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Venezia vs Napoli
Venezia
- L1-3away to Atalanta12 October 2026
- L0-2Lazio19 September 2026
- L2-4Fiorentina11 September 2026
- L2-3away to Frosinone6 September 2026
- L0-2away to AC Milan28 August 2026
Napoli
- W3-0Frosinone10 October 2026
- D1-1away to Fiorentina20 September 2026
- W1-0Bologna13 September 2026
- L2-3away to Inter5 September 2026
- L1-2Como30 August 2026
What these results say
- Venezia did not win any of these 5 matches.
- Venezia conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Napoli scored in every one of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Who is missing for Venezia vs Napoli
Venezia
- A. Adorantehernia
- A. Bella-Kotchapthigh injury
- B. Franjicshoulder injury
- G. Busiothigh injury
- M. Sverkohip injury
- P. Mazzocchiinjury
- T. CorreiainjuryDoubtful
Napoli
- A. Buongiornoknee injury
- A. Vergaracalf injury
- Alisson Santosmuscle injury
- C. Favasulithigh injury
- F. Anguissagroin injury
- M. Oliveragroin injury
From our data provider's injury and suspension report, refreshed twice a day. Doubtful means the player may still be named in the squad. The model's probabilities do not yet account for absences.
Serie A table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 | Venezia | 6 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 5 | 16 | -11 | 0 |
| 8 | Napoli | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 10 | 6 | +4 | 10 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Venezia
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 92% today
Napoli
Chance to finish in the top four · 45% today
From our Serie A season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. Each figure is that side's chance once this match ends in a win, a draw or a defeat for it, with every other match still left to the model. Positions in the table, not competition rules: what a place is worth differs from league to league.
Head-to-head: Venezia vs Napoli
- 16 March 2025Venezia 0–0 NapoliSerie A
- 29 December 2024Napoli 1–0 VeneziaSerie A
- 6 February 2022Venezia 0–2 NapoliSerie A
- 22 August 2021Napoli 2–0 VeneziaSerie A
Leading scorers: Venezia and Napoli
Venezia
No player in Serie A's leading scorers — 5 league goals as a side.
Napoli
GoalsAssists
- K. De Bruyne31
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
A clear gap in the ratings
Venezia carry a model rating of 6.54 against 7.17 for Napoli. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 0.78 goals for Venezia and 2.48 for Napoli. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Venezia rate 0.80 in attack and 1.50 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Napoli rate 1.32 and 0.70.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Venezia a 0% chance of the title and Napoli 4.2%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,819 correct results out of 3,801 settled predictions (48%), with 383 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Napoli the highest probability at 68%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 0.78 expected goals for Venezia against 2.48 for Napoli. Venezia's attack/defence rating is 0.8/1.5 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 1.32/0.7 for Napoli.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Venezia at home · Napoli away
League matches only, Serie A, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Position by match
VeneziaNapoli
Venezia are 20th after 6 Serie A matches (between 18th and 20th so far); Napoli are 6th after 6 (between 2nd and 10th). Rebuilt from the season's results after each side's matches (x-axis: that side's match number); ties split on goal difference, then goals scored.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Serie A matches this season: Venezia 6, Napoli 6.
Napoli score most often in the 16–30 minute window (3 goals); Venezia have let in 4 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
Venezia
- at Genoa25 Oct · Serie Awin 24%
- vs Inter28 Oct · Serie Awin 8%
- at Como1 Nov · Serie Awin 10%
- vs Udinese6 Nov · Serie Awin 24%
- at Juventus23 Nov · Serie Awin 9%
Napoli
- vs Bodo/Glimt20 Oct · UEFA Champions Leaguewin 60%
- vs AS Roma24 Oct · Serie Awin 30%
- at Monza28 Oct · Serie Awin 61%
- at Juventus1 Nov · Serie Awin 33%
- at FC Porto4 Nov · UEFA Champions Leaguewin 22%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.