Clausura - 7 · 16 October 2026, 01:05 UTC

Santa Fe vs Jaguares Primera A postponed match

Estadio El Campin, Bogota
PostponedNot played

This fixture has been postponed and is not being played on this date. A replayed tie is listed by our data provider as a new fixture, with its own page, so the call below has no result to be judged against.

Before the match was called off the model made it 65% Santa Fe, 21% draw, 14% Jaguares — fair odds of 1.54, 4.76 and 7.14. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 2-0 (12%).

Expected goals: Santa Fe 2.25, Jaguares 0.77.

Both teams to score: 49%. Over 2.5 goals: 58%, under 2.5: 42%.

Model confidence: High.

One-sided: Santa Fe are clearly the stronger team on the model's ratings. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 68%, 20% were drawn and the underdog won 12%.

Published · updated

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Model insights: Santa Fe vs Jaguares

49%
Both teams to score
58%
Over 2.5 goals
42%
Under 2.5 goals

Most likely scorelines

Santa Fe win Draw Jaguares win
  1. 2–012%
  2. 1–011%
  3. 2–110%
  4. 3–09%
  5. 1–19%
  6. 3–17%
  7. 0–05%

Scores read Santa Fe first. Each bar is the model's probability of that exact result, drawn against the likeliest one; the other scorelines it considered share the remaining 36%.

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Santa Fe at 65% here. Across 3,740 settled matches (as of 15 October 2026), 310 forecasts have landed in the 65–100% band; those outcomes actually happened 62.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 74.1%. In this range the model is over-confident, so read the figure above as optimistic rather than literal.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

Form going into Santa Fe vs Jaguares

Santa Fe

  • W1-0away to Independiente Medellin6 October 2026
  • W2-1away to Deportivo Pereira29 September 2026
  • L0-1Deportivo Cali23 September 2026
  • W4-1away to Alianza Valledupar19 September 2026
  • W1-0Deportes Tolima12 September 2026

Jaguares

  • W3-2Deportes Tolima11 October 2026
  • L0-2away to Águilas Doradas3 October 2026
  • L1-2Alianza Valledupar27 September 2026
  • L1-2away to Independiente Medellin22 September 2026
  • D2-2Fortaleza FC11 September 2026

What these results say

  • Santa Fe won 4 of these 5 matches.
  • Santa Fe scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
  • Jaguares conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
  • Jaguares failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
  • Jaguares scored in 4 of these 5 matches.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.

Primera A table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
6Santa Fe126421912+722
18Jaguares122461422-810

Where the two sides stand. Full table

Head-to-head: Santa Fe vs Jaguares

  • 17 February 2026Jaguares 3–1 Santa FePrimera A
  • 15 November 2024Santa Fe 3–0 JaguaresPrimera A
  • 28 April 2024Jaguares 1–0 Santa FePrimera A
  • 20 July 2023Santa Fe 1–0 JaguaresPrimera A
  • 27 January 2023Jaguares 2–2 Santa FePrimera A
  • 17 October 2022Jaguares 2–1 Santa FePrimera A

Leading scorers: Santa Fe and Jaguares

Santa Fe

GoalsAssists

  • H. Rodallega142
  • N. Bustos115

Jaguares

GoalsAssists

  • A. Rentería103

Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.

The two sides

Santa Fe carry a model rating of 6.65 against 6.3 for Jaguares. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.

What the model expects

Under the hood the model expects 2.25 goals for Santa Fe and 0.77 for Jaguares. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.

Santa Fe rate 0.79 in attack and 1.19 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Jaguares rate 0.64 and 1.96.

The rest of the season

Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Santa Fe a 4% chance of the title and Jaguares 0%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.

How this was produced

Publicly tracked record so far: 1,819 correct results out of 3,801 settled predictions (48%), with 383 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.

Full method: how the model works.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.

Team comparison

Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.

Why the model favours this side

The model gives Santa Fe the highest probability at 65%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.25 expected goals for Santa Fe against 0.77 for Jaguares. Santa Fe's attack/defence rating is 0.79/1.19 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.64/1.96 for Jaguares.