Chico
vs
Atletico Nacional
Primera A prediction
Our model says: Chico 0–1 Atletico Nacional
The model makes it 20% Chico, 27% draw, 53% Atletico Nacional — fair odds of 5.00, 3.70 and 1.89. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1 (14%).
Expected goals: Chico 0.81, Atletico Nacional 1.64.
Both teams to score: 45%. Over 2.5 goals: 44%, under 2.5: 56%.
Model confidence: High.
One-sided: Atletico Nacional are clearly the stronger team on the model's ratings. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 68%, 20% were drawn and the underdog won 12%.
Published · updated
Key facts
- Chico are 14th on 12 points from 12 games; Atletico Nacional are 4th on 23 points from 11 games — Primera A.
- Chico have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 0-1 defeat at home to Cucuta.
- Atletico Nacional are unbeaten in 3 games, most recently a 0-0 draw at home to Deportes Tolima.
- Last 6 meetings: Atletico Nacional 4 wins to 1, 1 draw; the most recent, 17 January 2026, ended Atletico Nacional 4–0 Chico.
More Colombian Primera A predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Chico vs Atletico Nacional
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Atletico Nacional at 53% here. Across 3,801 settled matches (as of 16 October 2026), 907 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 55.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.5%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Chico vs Atletico Nacional
Chico
- L0-1Cucuta11 October 2026
- D0-0away to Deportes Tolima3 October 2026
- W3-0Deportivo Pasto25 September 2026
- L0-3away to Millonarios19 September 2026
- L1-2Alianza Valledupar16 September 2026
Atletico Nacional
- D0-0Deportes Tolima8 October 2026
- W3-1Junior1 October 2026
- D1-1Millonarios25 September 2026
- L0-2away to Llaneros21 September 2026
- W3-2away to Internacional de Bogota17 September 2026
What these results say
- Chico failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Atletico Nacional conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Primera A table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | Chico | 12 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 10 | 19 | -9 | 12 |
| 4 | Atletico Nacional | 11 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 21 | 10 | +11 | 23 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Chico
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 29% today
Atletico Nacional
Chance to finish top of the Clausura · 49% today
From our Primera A season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. Each figure is that side's chance once this match ends in a win, a draw or a defeat for it, with every other match still left to the model. Positions in the table, not competition rules: what a place is worth differs from league to league.
Head-to-head: Chico vs Atletico Nacional
- 17 January 2026Atletico Nacional 4–0 ChicoPrimera A
- 6 October 2025Chico 1–1 Atletico NacionalPrimera A
- 16 April 2025Atletico Nacional 4–1 ChicoPrimera A
- 29 September 2024Atletico Nacional 6–2 ChicoPrimera A
- 17 March 2024Chico 2–1 Atletico NacionalPrimera A
- 22 October 2023Chico 1–3 Atletico NacionalPrimera A
Leading scorers: Chico and Atletico Nacional
Chico
No player in Primera A's leading scorers — 10 league goals as a side.
Atletico Nacional
GoalsAssists
- A. Morelos146
- A. Sarmiento86
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
A clear gap in the ratings
Chico carry a model rating of 6.22 against 6.75 for Atletico Nacional. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 0.81 goals for Chico and 1.64 for Atletico Nacional. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Chico rate 0.48 in attack and 1.72 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Atletico Nacional rate 0.94 and 1.16.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Chico a 0% chance of the title and Atletico Nacional 48.8%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,819 correct results out of 3,801 settled predictions (48%), with 383 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Atletico Nacional the highest probability at 53%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 0.81 expected goals for Chico against 1.64 for Atletico Nacional. Chico's attack/defence rating is 0.48/1.72 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.94/1.16 for Atletico Nacional.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Chico at home · Atletico Nacional away
League matches only, Primera A, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Primera A matches this season: Chico 30, Atletico Nacional 36.
Chico score most often in the 46–60 minute window (7 goals); Atletico Nacional have let in 7 there.
Atletico Nacional score most often in the 76–90 minute window (17 goals); Chico have let in 12 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
Chico
- at Deportivo Pereira20 Oct · Primera Awin 27%
- vs Bucaramanga23 Oct · Primera Awin 24%
- vs Junior28 Oct · Primera Awin 29%
- at Deportivo Cali2 Nov · Primera Awin 12%
- vs Internacional de Bogota8 Nov · Primera Awin 36%
Atletico Nacional
- at Cucuta20 Oct · Primera Awin 47%
- vs Deportivo Pasto23 Oct · Primera Awin 67%
- vs Independiente Medellin25 Oct · Primera Awin 57%
- vs Santa Fe30 Oct · Primera Awin 50%
- at Bucaramanga3 Nov · Primera Awin 32%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.