Deportivo Pereira
vs
Chico
Primera A prediction
Our model says: Deportivo Pereira 1–0 Chico
The model makes it 40% Deportivo Pereira, 33% draw, 27% Chico — fair odds of 2.50, 3.03 and 3.70. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0 (15%).
Expected goals: Deportivo Pereira 1.12, Chico 0.83.
Both teams to score: 39%. Over 2.5 goals: 31%, under 2.5: 69%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published · updated
Key facts
- Deportivo Pereira are 19th on 10 points from 13 games; Chico are 14th on 12 points from 12 games — Primera A.
- Deportivo Pereira have not won in their last 5 games, most recently a 1-1 draw away to Junior.
- Chico have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 0-1 defeat at home to Cucuta.
- Last 6 meetings: Deportivo Pereira 2 wins to 1, 3 draws; the most recent, 2 April 2026, ended Chico 1–0 Deportivo Pereira.
More Colombian Primera A predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Deportivo Pereira vs Chico
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Deportivo Pereira at 40% here. Across 3,801 settled matches (as of 16 October 2026), 1,771 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Deportivo Pereira vs Chico
Deportivo Pereira
- D1-1away to Junior14 October 2026
- D0-0Deportivo Cali10 October 2026
- L0-4away to Cucuta4 October 2026
- L1-2Santa Fe29 September 2026
- D0-0Internacional de Bogota26 September 2026
Chico
- L0-1Cucuta11 October 2026
- D0-0away to Deportes Tolima3 October 2026
- W3-0Deportivo Pasto25 September 2026
- L0-3away to Millonarios19 September 2026
- L1-2Alianza Valledupar16 September 2026
What these results say
- Deportivo Pereira did not win any of these 5 matches.
- Chico failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Primera A table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 | Deportivo Pereira | 13 | 1 | 7 | 5 | 8 | 18 | -10 | 10 |
| 14 | Chico | 12 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 10 | 19 | -9 | 12 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Deportivo Pereira
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 59% today
Chico
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 29% today
From our Primera A season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. Each figure is that side's chance once this match ends in a win, a draw or a defeat for it, with every other match still left to the model. Positions in the table, not competition rules: what a place is worth differs from league to league.
Head-to-head: Deportivo Pereira vs Chico
- 2 April 2026Chico 1–0 Deportivo PereiraPrimera A
- 22 September 2025Chico 1–1 Deportivo PereiraPrimera A
- 6 April 2025Deportivo Pereira 1–1 ChicoPrimera A
- 7 August 2024Deportivo Pereira 1–0 ChicoPrimera A
- 5 February 2024Chico 1–2 Deportivo PereiraPrimera A
- 5 August 2023Deportivo Pereira 1–1 ChicoPrimera A
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Deportivo Pereira carry a model rating of 6.19 against 6.22 for Chico. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
The model expects a tight, low-scoring game
Under the hood the model expects 1.12 goals for Deportivo Pereira and 0.83 for Chico. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Deportivo Pereira rate 0.45 in attack and 1.70 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Chico rate 0.48 and 1.72.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Chico, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,819 correct results out of 3,801 settled predictions (48%), with 383 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Deportivo Pereira the highest probability at 40%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.12 expected goals for Deportivo Pereira against 0.83 for Chico. Deportivo Pereira's attack/defence rating is 0.45/1.7 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.48/1.72 for Chico.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Deportivo Pereira at home · Chico away
League matches only, Primera A, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Primera A matches this season: Deportivo Pereira 30, Chico 30.
Chico score most often in the 46–60 minute window (7 goals); Deportivo Pereira have let in 11 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
Deportivo Pereira
- at Once Caldas25 Oct · Primera Awin 16%
- vs Jaguares30 Oct · Primera Awin 39%
- vs Deportes Tolima3 Nov · Primera Awin 26%
- at Atletico Nacional7 Nov · Primera Awin 9%
- vs America de Cali12 Nov · Primera Awin 21%
Chico
- vs Bucaramanga23 Oct · Primera Awin 24%
- vs Junior28 Oct · Primera Awin 29%
- at Deportivo Cali2 Nov · Primera Awin 12%
- vs Internacional de Bogota8 Nov · Primera Awin 36%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.