Llaneros
vs
Santa Fe
Primera A prediction
Our model says: Llaneros 0–1 Santa Fe
The model makes it 31% Llaneros, 31% draw, 38% Santa Fe — fair odds of 3.23, 3.23 and 2.63. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1.
Expected goals: Llaneros 1.00, Santa Fe 1.16.
Both teams to score: 44%. Over 2.5 goals: 37%, under 2.5: 63%.
Model confidence: Low.
Edge to Santa Fe: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.
Published · updated
Key facts
- Llaneros are 12th on 14 points from 13 games; Santa Fe are 6th on 22 points from 12 games — Primera A.
- Llaneros are without a win in 3 games, most recently a 0-1 defeat away to Once Caldas.
- Santa Fe have won 4 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-0 win away to Independiente Medellin.
- Last 3 meetings: Llaneros 2 wins to 1, 0 draws; the most recent, 1 April 2026, ended Santa Fe 0–1 Llaneros.
More Colombian Primera A predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Llaneros vs Santa Fe
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Santa Fe at 38% here. Across 3,801 settled matches (as of 16 October 2026), 2,969 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.5% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.6%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Llaneros vs Santa Fe
Llaneros
- L0-1away to Once Caldas10 October 2026
- L1-2America de Cali5 October 2026
- L1-2away to Cucuta26 September 2026
- W2-0Atletico Nacional21 September 2026
- L2-3away to Internacional de Bogota12 September 2026
Santa Fe
- W1-0away to Independiente Medellin6 October 2026
- W2-1away to Deportivo Pereira29 September 2026
- L0-1Deportivo Cali23 September 2026
- W4-1away to Alianza Valledupar19 September 2026
- W1-0Deportes Tolima12 September 2026
What these results say
- Llaneros failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Llaneros scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Llaneros conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Santa Fe won 4 of these 5 matches.
- Santa Fe scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Primera A table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Llaneros | 13 | 4 | 2 | 7 | 15 | 17 | -2 | 14 |
| 6 | Santa Fe | 12 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 19 | 12 | +7 | 22 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Llaneros
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 3% today
Santa Fe
Chance to finish in the top four · 43% today
From our Primera A season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. Each figure is that side's chance once this match ends in a win, a draw or a defeat for it, with every other match still left to the model. Positions in the table, not competition rules: what a place is worth differs from league to league.
Head-to-head: Llaneros vs Santa Fe
- 1 April 2026Santa Fe 0–1 LlanerosPrimera A
- 12 October 2025Santa Fe 1–3 LlanerosPrimera A
- 1 May 2025Llaneros 0–1 Santa FePrimera A
Leading scorers: Llaneros and Santa Fe
Llaneros
No player in Primera A's leading scorers — 15 league goals as a side.
Santa Fe
GoalsAssists
- H. Rodallega142
- N. Bustos115
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Llaneros carry a model rating of 6.4 against 6.65 for Santa Fe. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.00 goals for Llaneros and 1.16 for Santa Fe. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Llaneros rate 0.58 in attack and 1.45 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Santa Fe rate 0.79 and 1.19.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Llaneros a 0% chance of the title and Santa Fe 4%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,819 correct results out of 3,801 settled predictions (48%), with 383 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Santa Fe the highest probability at 38%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.00 expected goals for Llaneros against 1.16 for Santa Fe. Llaneros's attack/defence rating is 0.58/1.45 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.79/1.19 for Santa Fe.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Llaneros at home · Santa Fe away
League matches only, Primera A, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Primera A matches this season: Llaneros 32, Santa Fe 35.
Llaneros score most often in the 31–45 minute window (9 goals); Santa Fe have let in 2 there.
Santa Fe score most often in the 76–90 minute window (12 goals); Llaneros have let in 7 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
Llaneros
- vs Deportivo Cali21 Oct · Primera Awin 30%
- at Jaguares26 Oct · Primera Awin 32%
- vs Junior31 Oct · Primera Awin 38%
- at Alianza Valledupar9 Nov · Primera Awin 32%
- vs Chico12 Nov · Primera Awin 51%
Santa Fe
- vs Bucaramanga27 Oct · Primera Awin 44%
- at Atletico Nacional30 Oct · Primera Awin 23%
- at Cucuta2 Nov · Primera Awin 41%
- vs Deportivo Pasto10 Nov · Primera Awin 60%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.