Deportivo Cali
vs
Junior
Primera A prediction
Our model says: Deportivo Cali 1–0 Junior
The model makes it 50% Deportivo Cali, 28% draw, 22% Junior — fair odds of 2.00, 3.57 and 4.55. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0 (14%).
Expected goals: Deportivo Cali 1.54, Junior 0.84.
Both teams to score: 45%. Over 2.5 goals: 43%, under 2.5: 57%.
Model confidence: High.
Edge to Deportivo Cali: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.
Published · updated
Key facts
- Deportivo Cali are 2nd on 25 points from 13 games; Junior are 16th on 11 points from 13 games — Primera A.
- Deportivo Cali are unbeaten in their last 5 games (4 won), most recently a 0-0 draw away to Deportivo Pereira.
- Junior are without a win in 4 games, most recently a 1-1 draw at home to Deportivo Pereira.
- Last 6 meetings: Junior 3 wins to 1, 2 draws; the most recent, 4 April 2026, ended Junior 1–2 Deportivo Cali.
More Colombian Primera A predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Deportivo Cali vs Junior
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Deportivo Cali at 50% here. Across 3,801 settled matches (as of 16 October 2026), 907 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 55.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.5%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Deportivo Cali vs Junior
Deportivo Cali
- D0-0away to Deportivo Pereira10 October 2026
- W3-1Alianza Valledupar3 October 2026
- W2-0Águilas Doradas28 September 2026
- W1-0away to Santa Fe23 September 2026
- W3-0Cucuta19 September 2026
Junior
- D1-1Deportivo Pereira14 October 2026
- D2-2Internacional de Bogota10 October 2026
- L1-3away to Bucaramanga4 October 2026
- L1-3away to Atletico Nacional1 October 2026
- W2-0Independiente Medellin27 September 2026
What these results say
- Deportivo Cali went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- Deportivo Cali won 4 of these 5 matches.
- Deportivo Cali scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Junior scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Junior failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Junior conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Primera A table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Deportivo Cali | 13 | 7 | 4 | 2 | 20 | 9 | +11 | 25 |
| 16 | Junior | 13 | 2 | 5 | 6 | 19 | 23 | -4 | 11 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Deportivo Cali
Chance to finish in the top four · 62% today
Junior
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 12% today
From our Primera A season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. Each figure is that side's chance once this match ends in a win, a draw or a defeat for it, with every other match still left to the model. Positions in the table, not competition rules: what a place is worth differs from league to league.
Head-to-head: Deportivo Cali vs Junior
- 4 April 2026Junior 1–2 Deportivo CaliPrimera A
- 13 July 2025Deportivo Cali 0–2 JuniorPrimera A
- 26 January 2025Junior 0–0 Deportivo CaliPrimera A
- 15 November 2024Junior 3–0 Deportivo CaliPrimera A
- 28 April 2024Deportivo Cali 0–0 JuniorPrimera A
- 3 December 2023Deportivo Cali 0–2 JuniorPrimera A
Leading scorers: Deportivo Cali and Junior
Deportivo Cali
GoalsAssists
- S. Rodríguez103
Junior
GoalsAssists
- L. Muriel162
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Deportivo Cali carry a model rating of 6.66 against 6.53 for Junior. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.54 goals for Deportivo Cali and 0.84 for Junior. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Deportivo Cali rate 0.69 in attack and 1.03 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Junior rate 0.80 and 1.54.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Deportivo Cali a 5.9% chance of the title and Junior 0%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,819 correct results out of 3,801 settled predictions (48%), with 383 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Deportivo Cali the highest probability at 50%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.54 expected goals for Deportivo Cali against 0.84 for Junior. Deportivo Cali's attack/defence rating is 0.69/1.03 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.8/1.54 for Junior.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Deportivo Cali at home · Junior away
League matches only, Primera A, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Primera A matches this season: Deportivo Cali 31, Junior 36.
Deportivo Cali score most often in the 61–75 minute window (10 goals); Junior have let in 7 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
Deportivo Cali
- at Llaneros21 Oct · Primera Awin 37%
- at Fortaleza FC25 Oct · Primera Awin 39%
- vs Chico2 Nov · Primera Awin 62%
- at America de Cali8 Nov · Primera Awin 25%
- vs Deportes Tolima12 Nov · Primera Awin 46%
Junior
- vs Águilas Doradas24 Oct · Primera Awin 51%
- at Chico28 Oct · Primera Awin 42%
- at Llaneros31 Oct · Primera Awin 33%
- vs Cucuta8 Nov · Primera Awin 56%
- at Deportivo Pasto12 Nov · Primera Awin 36%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.