Monza
vs
Cagliari
Serie A prediction
Our model says: Monza 0–1 Cagliari
The model makes it 30% Monza, 27% draw, 43% Cagliari — fair odds of 3.33, 3.70 and 2.33. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1.
Expected goals: Monza 1.18, Cagliari 1.53.
Both teams to score: 55%. Over 2.5 goals: 51%, under 2.5: 49%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Edge to Cagliari: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.
Published · updated
Key facts
- Monza are 16th on 4 points from 6 games; Cagliari are 4th on 13 points from 6 games — Serie A.
- Monza have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-3 defeat away to Lazio.
- Cagliari are unbeaten in 4 games, most recently a 1-1 draw at home to Juventus.
- Last 4 meetings: Cagliari 2 wins to 1, 1 draw; the most recent, 30 March 2025, ended Cagliari 3–0 Monza.
More Serie A predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Monza vs Cagliari
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Cagliari at 43% here. Across 3,801 settled matches (as of 16 October 2026), 1,771 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Monza vs Cagliari
Monza
- L1-3away to Lazio11 October 2026
- W2-1Sassuolo18 September 2026
- L2-3away to Lecce13 September 2026
- D1-1away to Parma6 September 2026
- L2-3Udinese29 August 2026
Cagliari
- D1-1Juventus11 October 2026
- W1-0away to Udinese19 September 2026
- W2-1away to Atalanta12 September 2026
- W1-0Lecce7 September 2026
- L0-1Inter30 August 2026
What these results say
- Monza scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Monza conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Both sides scored in every one of these 5 matches for Monza.
- Cagliari scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Cagliari had two goals or fewer.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Who is missing for Monza vs Cagliari
Monza
No absences reported.
Cagliari
- Riyad Idrissijumpers knee
From our data provider's injury and suspension report, refreshed twice a day. Doubtful means the player may still be named in the squad. The model's probabilities do not yet account for absences.
Serie A table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | Monza | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 9 | 15 | -6 | 4 |
| 4 | Cagliari | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 3 | +3 | 13 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Monza
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 47% today
Cagliari
Chance to finish in the top four · 6% today
From our Serie A season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. Each figure is that side's chance once this match ends in a win, a draw or a defeat for it, with every other match still left to the model. Positions in the table, not competition rules: what a place is worth differs from league to league.
Head-to-head: Monza vs Cagliari
- 30 March 2025Cagliari 3–0 MonzaSerie A
- 5 January 2025Monza 1–2 CagliariSerie A
- 16 March 2024Monza 1–0 CagliariSerie A
- 26 November 2023Cagliari 1–1 MonzaSerie A
Leading scorers: Monza and Cagliari
Monza
GoalsAssists
- Gustavo Varela40
Cagliari
GoalsAssists
- D. Maldini40
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Monza carry a model rating of 6.72 against 6.9 for Cagliari. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.18 goals for Monza and 1.53 for Cagliari. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Monza rate 1.05 in attack and 1.40 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Cagliari rate 0.87 and 0.81.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Monza a 0% chance of the title and Cagliari 0.2%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,819 correct results out of 3,801 settled predictions (48%), with 383 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Cagliari the highest probability at 43%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.18 expected goals for Monza against 1.53 for Cagliari. Monza's attack/defence rating is 1.05/1.4 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.87/0.81 for Cagliari.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Monza at home · Cagliari away
League matches only, Serie A, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Position by match
MonzaCagliari
Monza are 15th after 6 Serie A matches (between 14th and 20th so far); Cagliari are 4th after 6 (between 3rd and 13th). Rebuilt from the season's results after each side's matches (x-axis: that side's match number); ties split on goal difference, then goals scored.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Serie A matches this season: Monza 6, Cagliari 6.
Cagliari score most often in the 16–30 minute window (3 goals); Monza have let in 2 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
Monza
- at Torino23 Oct · Serie Awin 29%
- vs Napoli28 Oct · Serie Awin 17%
- at Bologna31 Oct · Serie Awin 27%
- vs Atalanta8 Nov · Serie Awin 22%
- vs Fiorentina23 Nov · Serie Awin 32%
Cagliari
- vs Bologna24 Oct · Serie Awin 38%
- at AS Roma27 Oct · Serie Awin 15%
- at Lazio1 Nov · Serie Awin 28%
- vs Frosinone7 Nov · Serie Awin 36%
- at Como21 Nov · Serie Awin 22%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.