Juventus
vs
Lazio
Serie A prediction
Our model says: Juventus 1–0 Lazio
The model makes it 47% Juventus, 29% draw, 24% Lazio — fair odds of 2.13, 3.45 and 4.17. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0 (14%).
Expected goals: Juventus 1.46, Lazio 0.87.
Both teams to score: 45%. Over 2.5 goals: 41%, under 2.5: 59%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Edge to Juventus: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.
Published · updated
Key facts
- Juventus are 6th on 11 points from 6 games; Lazio are 2nd on 16 points from 6 games — Serie A.
- Juventus have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-1 draw away to Cagliari.
- Lazio are unbeaten in their last 5 games (4 won), most recently a 3-1 win at home to Monza.
- Last 6 meetings: level at 2 wins each, 2 draws; the most recent, 8 February 2026, ended Juventus 2–2 Lazio.
More Serie A predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Juventus vs Lazio
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Juventus at 47% here. Across 3,801 settled matches (as of 16 October 2026), 1,771 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Juventus vs Lazio
Juventus
- D1-1away to Cagliari11 October 2026
- W2-0Atalanta20 September 2026
- L2-3away to Sassuolo13 September 2026
- D1-1AC Milan6 September 2026
- W2-0Parma29 August 2026
Lazio
- W3-1Monza11 October 2026
- W2-0away to Venezia19 September 2026
- D2-2AC Milan12 September 2026
- W2-1away to Udinese7 September 2026
- W1-0Genoa30 August 2026
What these results say
- Juventus scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Juventus had two goals or fewer.
- Lazio went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- Lazio scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Lazio won 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Who is missing for Juventus vs Lazio
Juventus
No absences reported.
Lazio
- A. Furlanettojumpers knee
- Patricsprained ankle
From our data provider's injury and suspension report, refreshed twice a day. Doubtful means the player may still be named in the squad. The model's probabilities do not yet account for absences.
Serie A table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Juventus | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 9 | 5 | +4 | 11 |
| 2 | Lazio | 6 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 11 | 4 | +7 | 16 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Juventus
Chance to finish in the top four · 45% today
Lazio
Chance to finish in the top four · 16% today
From our Serie A season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. Each figure is that side's chance once this match ends in a win, a draw or a defeat for it, with every other match still left to the model. Positions in the table, not competition rules: what a place is worth differs from league to league.
Head-to-head: Juventus vs Lazio
- 8 February 2026Juventus 2–2 LazioSerie A
- 26 October 2025Lazio 1–0 JuventusSerie A
- 10 May 2025Lazio 1–1 JuventusSerie A
- 19 October 2024Juventus 1–0 LazioSerie A
- 23 April 2024Lazio 2–1 JuventusCoppa Italia
- 2 April 2024Juventus 2–0 LazioCoppa Italia
Leading scorers: Juventus and Lazio
Juventus
No player in Serie A's leading scorers — 9 league goals as a side.
Lazio
GoalsAssists
- D. Frattesi30
- T. Noslin22
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Juventus carry a model rating of 7.17 against 6.97 for Lazio. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.46 goals for Juventus and 0.87 for Lazio. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Juventus rate 1.31 in attack and 0.69 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Lazio rate 1.01 and 0.80.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Lazio, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Juventus a 4.1% chance of the title and Lazio 1%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,819 correct results out of 3,801 settled predictions (48%), with 383 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Juventus the highest probability at 47%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.46 expected goals for Juventus against 0.87 for Lazio. Juventus's attack/defence rating is 1.31/0.69 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 1.01/0.8 for Lazio.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Juventus at home · Lazio away
League matches only, Serie A, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Position by match
JuventusLazio
Juventus are 6th after 6 Serie A matches (between 2nd and 8th so far); Lazio are 2nd after 6 (between 1st and 8th). Rebuilt from the season's results after each side's matches (x-axis: that side's match number); ties split on goal difference, then goals scored.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Serie A matches this season: Juventus 6, Lazio 6.
Juventus score most often in the 76–90 minute window (6 goals); Lazio have let in 0 there.
Lazio score most often in the 46–60 minute window (3 goals); Juventus have let in 0 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
Juventus
- vs Rennes22 Oct · UEFA Europa Leaguewin 63%
- at Lecce25 Oct · Serie Awin 58%
- at Genoa28 Oct · Serie Awin 55%
- vs Napoli1 Nov · Serie Awin 38%
Lazio
- vs Parma24 Oct · Serie Awin 48%
- at Sassuolo27 Oct · Serie Awin 38%
- vs Cagliari1 Nov · Serie Awin 40%
- at Napoli8 Nov · Serie Awin 24%
- vs Lecce21 Nov · Serie Awin 52%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.