Apertura - 12 · 18 October 2026, 01:00 UTC

Leon vs Club America Liga MX prediction

Estadio León, Leon

Our model says: Leon 1–2 Club America

The model makes it 33% Leon, 27% draw, 40% Club America — fair odds of 3.03, 3.70 and 2.50. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 1-2.

Expected goals: Leon 1.38, Club America 1.57.

Both teams to score: 60%. Over 2.5 goals: 56%, under 2.5: 44%.

Model confidence: Medium.

Edge to Club America: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.

Published · updated

Key facts

  • Club America are unbeaten in 3 games, most recently a 1-1 draw at home to Monterrey.
  • Last 6 meetings: Club America 3 wins to 1, 2 draws; the most recent, 6 September 2026, ended Leon 1–0 Club America.

More Liga MX predictions

All Liga MX predictions →

Live win probability

From kick-off

From kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.

Model insights: Leon vs Club America

60%
Both teams to score
56%
Over 2.5 goals
44%
Under 2.5 goals

Most likely scorelines

Leon win Draw Club America win
  1. 1–112%
  2. 1–29%
  3. 2–18%
  4. 0–18%
  5. 1–07%
  6. 0–26%
  7. 2–26%

Scores read Leon first. Each bar is the model's probability of that exact result, drawn against the likeliest one; the other scorelines it considered share the remaining 44%.

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Club America at 40% here. Across 3,801 settled matches (as of 16 October 2026), 1,771 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

Form going into Leon vs Club America

Leon

  • D1-1away to Puebla10 October 2026
  • W2-1FC Juarez28 September 2026
  • D1-1away to Club Queretaro21 September 2026
  • W2-0Atletico San Luis15 September 2026
  • L1-3away to Pumas UNAM11 September 2026

Club America

  • D1-1Monterrey11 October 2026
  • W4-2away to Necaxa28 September 2026
  • D2-2Guadalajara Chivas20 September 2026
  • L3-4away to Cruz Azul13 September 2026
  • W2-0Puebla30 August 2026

What these results say

  • Leon scored in every one of these 5 matches.
  • Leon conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
  • Both sides scored in 4 of these 5 matches for Leon.
  • Club America scored in every one of these 5 matches.
  • Club America conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
  • Both sides scored in 4 of these 5 matches for Club America.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.

What's at stake

Club America

Chance to finish top of the Apertura · 35% today

Win 46%
Draw 30%
Defeat 22%

From our Liga MX season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. Each figure is that side's chance once this match ends in a win, a draw or a defeat for it, with every other match still left to the model. Positions in the table, not competition rules: what a place is worth differs from league to league.

Head-to-head: Leon vs Club America

  • 6 September 2026Leon 1–0 Club AmericaLeagues Cup
  • 22 April 2026Leon 2–3 Club AmericaLiga MX
  • 2 November 2025Club America 2–0 LeonLiga MX
  • 20 February 2025Club America 1–1 LeonLiga MX
  • 6 October 2024Leon 1–1 Club AmericaLiga MX
  • 11 February 2024Leon 0–1 Club AmericaLiga MX

The full Leon vs Club America record →

Leading scorers: Leon and Club America

Leon

GoalsAssists

  • D. Arcila40

Club America

GoalsAssists

  • H. Martín62
  • M. Borja40

Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.

The two sides

Leon carry a model rating of 6.52 against 6.73 for Club America. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.

What the model expects

Under the hood the model expects 1.38 goals for Leon and 1.57 for Club America. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.

Leon rate 0.68 in attack and 1.33 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Club America rate 0.92 and 1.17.

How this was produced

Publicly tracked record so far: 1,819 correct results out of 3,801 settled predictions (48%), with 383 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.

Full method: how the model works.

From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.

Team comparison

Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.

Why the model favours this side

The model gives Club America the highest probability at 40%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.38 expected goals for Leon against 1.57 for Club America. Leon's attack/defence rating is 0.68/1.33 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.92/1.17 for Club America.

Season stats

LeonClub America
11Matches10
5W 3D 3LRecord6W 3D 1L
15 1.4 per gameGoals scored22 2.2 per game
12 1.1 per gameGoals conceded11 1.1 per game
3 of 11Clean sheets4 of 10
1 of 11Failed to score0 of 10
3 of 3Penalties scored3 of 4
19 1.7 per gameYellow cards16 1.6 per game
4Red cards2
4-1-4-1 9×Usual shape4-2-3-1 8×

Leon at home · Club America away

5Played5
4W 0D 1LRecord3W 1D 1L
9–4Goals for – against11–8
3 of 5Clean sheets1 of 5

League matches only, Liga MX, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.

Goals scored and conceded, by minute

All Liga MX matches this season: Leon 11, Club America 10.

Leon scored 032324
Club America conceded 027020

Leon score most often in the 76–90 minute window (4 goals); Club America have let in 0 there.

Club America scored 134455
Leon conceded 101335

Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.

The next 5 matches, by difficulty

Leon

Club America

Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.