Apertura - 12 · 18 October 2026, 01:00 UTC

Toluca vs Atletico San Luis Liga MX prediction

Estadio Nemesio Diez, Toluca

Our model says: Toluca 2–1 Atletico San Luis

The model makes it 62% Toluca, 21% draw, 17% Atletico San Luis — fair odds of 1.61, 4.76 and 5.88. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1 (9%).

Expected goals: Toluca 2.53, Atletico San Luis 1.12.

Both teams to score: 62%. Over 2.5 goals: 71%, under 2.5: 29%.

Model confidence: High.

Edge to Toluca: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.

Published · updated

Key facts

  • Toluca are 2nd on 20 points from 11 games; Atletico San Luis are 15th on 12 points from 11 games — Liga MX.
  • Toluca are without a win in 3 games, most recently a 2-3 defeat away to Tigres UANL.
  • Atletico San Luis have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-2 defeat at home to Santos Laguna.
  • Last 6 meetings: Toluca 5 wins to 0, 1 draw; the most recent, 13 April 2026, ended Toluca 1–1 Atletico San Luis.

More Liga MX predictions

All Liga MX predictions →

Live win probability

From kick-off

From kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.

Model insights: Toluca vs Atletico San Luis

62%
Both teams to score
71%
Over 2.5 goals
29%
Under 2.5 goals

Most likely scorelines

Toluca win Draw Atletico San Luis win
  1. 2–19%
  2. 2–08%
  3. 3–18%
  4. 1–18%
  5. 3–07%
  6. 1–06%
  7. 2–25%

Scores read Toluca first. Each bar is the model's probability of that exact result, drawn against the likeliest one; the other scorelines it considered share the remaining 49%.

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Toluca at 62% here. Across 3,801 settled matches (as of 16 October 2026), 907 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 55.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.5%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

Form going into Toluca vs Atletico San Luis

Toluca

  • L2-3away to Tigres UANL10 October 2026
  • D3-3away to Cruz Azul26 September 2026
  • L2-3Santos Laguna21 September 2026
  • W1-0away to Puebla16 September 2026
  • W5-2Atlas12 September 2026

Atletico San Luis

  • L1-2Santos Laguna11 October 2026
  • W3-2away to Pumas UNAM27 September 2026
  • W3-1Necaxa19 September 2026
  • L0-2away to Leon15 September 2026
  • L0-3Guadalajara Chivas5 September 2026

What these results say

  • Toluca scored in every one of these 5 matches.
  • Toluca conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
  • 4 of these 5 matches for Toluca had three goals or more.
  • Atletico San Luis conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
  • 4 of these 5 matches for Atletico San Luis had three goals or more.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.

Liga MX table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
2Toluca116232515+1020
15Atletico San Luis113351520-512

Where the two sides stand. Full table

What's at stake

Toluca

Chance to finish in the top four · 74% today

Win 82%
Draw 66%
Defeat 52%

Atletico San Luis

Chance to finish in the bottom three · 21% today

Win 5%
Draw 20%
Defeat 25%

From our Liga MX season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. Each figure is that side's chance once this match ends in a win, a draw or a defeat for it, with every other match still left to the model. Positions in the table, not competition rules: what a place is worth differs from league to league.

Head-to-head: Toluca vs Atletico San Luis

  • 13 April 2026Toluca 1–1 Atletico San LuisLiga MX
  • 30 August 2025Atletico San Luis 1–3 TolucaLiga MX
  • 17 April 2025Atletico San Luis 0–1 TolucaLiga MX
  • 25 August 2024Toluca 2–1 Atletico San LuisLiga MX
  • 20 April 2024Atletico San Luis 1–5 TolucaLiga MX
  • 29 October 2023Toluca 3–1 Atletico San LuisLiga MX

The full Toluca vs Atletico San Luis record →

Leading scorers: Toluca and Atletico San Luis

Toluca

GoalsAssists

  • F. Viñas50
  • A. Vega42

Atletico San Luis

No player in Liga MX's leading scorers — 15 league goals as a side.

Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.

The two sides

Toluca carry a model rating of 6.75 against 6.49 for Atletico San Luis. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.

The model expects goals

Under the hood the model expects 2.53 goals for Toluca and 1.12 for Atletico San Luis. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.

Toluca rate 0.98 in attack and 1.20 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Atletico San Luis rate 0.73 and 1.49.

The rest of the season

Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Toluca a 15.8% chance of the title and Atletico San Luis 0%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.

How this was produced

Publicly tracked record so far: 1,819 correct results out of 3,801 settled predictions (48%), with 383 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.

Full method: how the model works.

From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.

Team comparison

Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.

Why the model favours this side

The model gives Toluca the highest probability at 62%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.53 expected goals for Toluca against 1.12 for Atletico San Luis. Toluca's attack/defence rating is 0.98/1.2 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.73/1.49 for Atletico San Luis.

Season stats

TolucaAtletico San Luis
11Matches11
6W 2D 3LRecord3W 3D 5L
25 2.3 per gameGoals scored15 1.4 per game
15 1.4 per gameGoals conceded20 1.8 per game
4 of 11Clean sheets1 of 11
1 of 11Failed to score4 of 11
4 of 4Penalties scored2 of 2
17 1.5 per gameYellow cards14 1.3 per game
2Red cards1
4-2-3-1 8×Usual shape3-4-2-1 6×

Toluca at home · Atletico San Luis away

5Played5
3W 0D 2LRecord2W 1D 2L
15–8Goals for – against8–10
1 of 5Clean sheets0 of 5

League matches only, Liga MX, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.

Goals scored and conceded, by minute

All Liga MX matches this season: Toluca 11, Atletico San Luis 11.

Toluca scored 254433
Atletico San Luis conceded 311555

Toluca score most often in the 16–30 minute window (5 goals); Atletico San Luis have let in 1 there.

Atletico San Luis scored 232305
Toluca conceded 205525

Atletico San Luis score most often in the 76–90 minute window (5 goals); Toluca have let in 5 there.

Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.

The next 5 matches, by difficulty

Toluca

Atletico San Luis

Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.