Águilas Doradas
vs
Deportes Tolima
Primera A prediction
Our model says: Águilas Doradas 1–0 Deportes Tolima
The model makes it 37% Águilas Doradas, 31% draw, 32% Deportes Tolima — fair odds of 2.70, 3.23 and 3.13. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Águilas Doradas 1.18, Deportes Tolima 1.04.
Both teams to score: 45%. Over 2.5 goals: 38%, under 2.5: 62%.
Model confidence: Low.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published · updated
Key facts
- Águilas Doradas are 11th on 16 points from 13 games; Deportes Tolima are 8th on 20 points from 14 games — Primera A.
- Águilas Doradas are unbeaten in 3 games, most recently a 1-1 draw away to Bucaramanga.
- Deportes Tolima have not won in their last 5 games, most recently a 2-3 defeat away to Jaguares.
- Last 6 meetings: Deportes Tolima 4 wins to 2, 0 draws; the most recent, 1 April 2026, ended Deportes Tolima 4–1 Águilas Doradas.
More Colombian Primera A predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Águilas Doradas vs Deportes Tolima
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Águilas Doradas at 37% here. Across 3,801 settled matches (as of 16 October 2026), 2,969 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.5% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.6%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Águilas Doradas vs Deportes Tolima
Águilas Doradas
- D1-1away to Bucaramanga13 October 2026
- D2-2away to Alianza Valledupar9 October 2026
- W2-0Jaguares3 October 2026
- L0-2away to Deportivo Cali28 September 2026
- L0-1away to America de Cali24 September 2026
Deportes Tolima
- L2-3away to Jaguares11 October 2026
- D0-0away to Atletico Nacional8 October 2026
- D0-0Chico3 October 2026
- D2-2away to Fortaleza FC27 September 2026
- D1-1America de Cali20 September 2026
What these results say
- Águilas Doradas failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Águilas Doradas conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Águilas Doradas had two goals or fewer.
- Deportes Tolima did not win any of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Primera A table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Águilas Doradas | 13 | 3 | 7 | 3 | 17 | 18 | -1 | 16 |
| 8 | Deportes Tolima | 14 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 17 | 16 | +1 | 20 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Deportes Tolima
Chance to finish in the top four · 1% today
From our Primera A season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. Each figure is that side's chance once this match ends in a win, a draw or a defeat for it, with every other match still left to the model. Positions in the table, not competition rules: what a place is worth differs from league to league.
Head-to-head: Águilas Doradas vs Deportes Tolima
- 1 April 2026Deportes Tolima 4–1 Águilas DoradasPrimera A
- 14 November 2025Águilas Doradas 1–2 Deportes TolimaPrimera A
- 25 May 2025Deportes Tolima 1–2 Águilas DoradasPrimera A
- 2 November 2024Águilas Doradas 0–1 Deportes TolimaPrimera A
- 12 April 2024Deportes Tolima 2–1 Águilas DoradasPrimera A
- 2 December 2023Deportes Tolima 0–1 Águilas DoradasPrimera A
Leading scorers: Águilas Doradas and Deportes Tolima
Águilas Doradas
GoalsAssists
- Jorge Luis Rivaldo Pinto110
Deportes Tolima
GoalsAssists
- A. Parra84
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Águilas Doradas carry a model rating of 6.43 against 6.55 for Deportes Tolima. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.18 goals for Águilas Doradas and 1.04 for Deportes Tolima. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Águilas Doradas rate 0.67 in attack and 1.55 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Deportes Tolima rate 0.66 and 1.21.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Deportes Tolima, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,819 correct results out of 3,801 settled predictions (48%), with 383 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Águilas Doradas the highest probability at 37%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.18 expected goals for Águilas Doradas against 1.04 for Deportes Tolima. Águilas Doradas's attack/defence rating is 0.67/1.55 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.66/1.21 for Deportes Tolima.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Águilas Doradas at home · Deportes Tolima away
League matches only, Primera A, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Primera A matches this season: Águilas Doradas 31, Deportes Tolima 36.
Águilas Doradas score most often in the 76–90 minute window (11 goals); Deportes Tolima have let in 5 there.
Deportes Tolima score most often in the 46–60 minute window (10 goals); Águilas Doradas have let in 10 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
Águilas Doradas
- at Junior24 Oct · Primera Awin 23%
- at Cucuta27 Oct · Primera Awin 31%
- vs Fortaleza FC2 Nov · Primera Awin 48%
- at Once Caldas7 Nov · Primera Awin 25%
- vs Independiente Medellin12 Nov · Primera Awin 39%
Deportes Tolima
- vs Deportivo Pasto26 Oct · Primera Awin 53%
- at Deportivo Pereira3 Nov · Primera Awin 42%
- vs Millonarios7 Nov · Primera Awin 39%
- at Deportivo Cali12 Nov · Primera Awin 22%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.