Bucaramanga
vs
America de Cali
Primera A prediction
Our model says: Bucaramanga 1–0 America de Cali
The model makes it 41% Bucaramanga, 30% draw, 29% America de Cali — fair odds of 2.44, 3.33 and 3.45. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Bucaramanga 1.26, America de Cali 0.98.
Both teams to score: 45%. Over 2.5 goals: 39%, under 2.5: 61%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published · updated
Key facts
- Bucaramanga are 3rd on 24 points from 12 games; America de Cali are top on 27 points from 13 games — Primera A.
- Bucaramanga are unbeaten in their last 5 games (3 won), most recently a 1-1 draw at home to Águilas Doradas.
- America de Cali have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-2 defeat at home to Independiente Medellin.
- Last 6 meetings: America de Cali 4 wins to 1, 1 draw; the most recent, 2 April 2026, ended America de Cali 2–0 Bucaramanga.
More Colombian Primera A predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Bucaramanga vs America de Cali
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Bucaramanga at 41% here. Across 3,801 settled matches (as of 16 October 2026), 1,771 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Bucaramanga vs America de Cali
Bucaramanga
- D1-1Águilas Doradas13 October 2026
- W3-1Junior4 October 2026
- W3-1away to Once Caldas26 September 2026
- W2-0Internacional de Bogota20 September 2026
- D2-2Independiente Medellin18 September 2026
America de Cali
- L1-2Independiente Medellin12 October 2026
- W2-1away to Llaneros5 October 2026
- W1-0Águilas Doradas24 September 2026
- D1-1away to Deportes Tolima20 September 2026
- L0-1Deportivo Pasto15 September 2026
What these results say
- Bucaramanga went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- Bucaramanga scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Bucaramanga conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- America de Cali scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- America de Cali conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Primera A table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Bucaramanga | 12 | 6 | 6 | 0 | 21 | 11 | +10 | 24 |
| 1 | America de Cali | 13 | 8 | 3 | 2 | 25 | 9 | +16 | 27 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Bucaramanga
Chance to finish in the top four · 72% today
America de Cali
Chance to finish top of the Clausura · 25% today
From our Primera A season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. Each figure is that side's chance once this match ends in a win, a draw or a defeat for it, with every other match still left to the model. Positions in the table, not competition rules: what a place is worth differs from league to league.
Head-to-head: Bucaramanga vs America de Cali
- 2 April 2026America de Cali 2–0 BucaramangaPrimera A
- 6 March 2026America de Cali 2–1 BucaramangaCONMEBOL Sudamericana
- 16 September 2025America de Cali 0–0 BucaramangaPrimera A
- 3 September 2025America de Cali 2–0 BucaramangaCopa Colombia
- 27 August 2025Bucaramanga 1–0 America de CaliCopa Colombia
- 3 February 2025Bucaramanga 0–4 America de CaliPrimera A
Leading scorers: Bucaramanga and America de Cali
Bucaramanga
GoalsAssists
- L. Pons115
- E. Batalla115
America de Cali
GoalsAssists
- Y. Guzmán186
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Bucaramanga carry a model rating of 6.63 against 6.69 for America de Cali. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.26 goals for Bucaramanga and 0.98 for America de Cali. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Bucaramanga rate 0.79 in attack and 1.22 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; America de Cali rate 0.79 and 1.10.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour America de Cali, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Bucaramanga a 15.4% chance of the title and America de Cali 24.7%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,819 correct results out of 3,801 settled predictions (48%), with 383 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Bucaramanga the highest probability at 41%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.26 expected goals for Bucaramanga against 0.98 for America de Cali. Bucaramanga's attack/defence rating is 0.79/1.22 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.79/1.1 for America de Cali.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Bucaramanga at home · America de Cali away
League matches only, Primera A, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Primera A matches this season: Bucaramanga 30, America de Cali 33.
Bucaramanga score most often in the 31–45 minute window (13 goals); America de Cali have let in 5 there.
America de Cali score most often in the 16–30 minute window (13 goals); Bucaramanga have let in 6 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
Bucaramanga
- at Chico23 Oct · Primera Awin 46%
- at Santa Fe27 Oct · Primera Awin 27%
- vs Deportivo Pasto31 Oct · Primera Awin 59%
- vs Atletico Nacional3 Nov · Primera Awin 39%
- at Jaguares8 Nov · Primera Awin 45%
America de Cali
- vs Cucuta24 Oct · Primera Awin 62%
- vs Fortaleza FC29 Oct · Primera Awin 60%
- at Millonarios4 Nov · Primera Awin 29%
- vs Deportivo Cali8 Nov · Primera Awin 43%
- at Deportivo Pereira12 Nov · Primera Awin 49%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.