Junior
vs
Deportivo Pereira
Primera A prediction & result
Final score: Junior 1-1 Deportivo Pereira.
Before kick-off the model made it 61% Junior, 24% draw, 15% Deportivo Pereira — fair odds of 1.64, 4.17 and 6.67. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-0 (13%).
Expected goals: Junior 1.97, Deportivo Pereira 0.70.
Both teams to score: 44%. Over 2.5 goals: 50%, under 2.5: 50%.
Model confidence: High.
Published · updated
More Colombian Primera A predictions
Model insights: Junior vs Deportivo Pereira
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Junior at 61% here. Across 3,801 settled matches (as of 16 October 2026), 907 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 55.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.5%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Junior vs Deportivo Pereira
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 30J. MartínezG
- 34Daniel SocarrasD
- 98J. PeñaD
- 5D. RiveraD
- 3E. HerreraD
- 88B. CastrillónM
- 22Jesús RivasM
- 80F. ÁngelM
- 18K. PérezM
- 10L. MurielF
- 9G. PaivaF
- 38Andrés ShmalbachM
- 28G. CelisM
- 77C. BarriosF
- 12J. AcostaG
- 8Y. CharáM
- 19F. FydriszewskiF
- 29T. GutiérrezF
- 16Carlos PérezD
- 14J. RíosM
- 1Yimy GómezG
- 20J. MonroyD
- 15S. AguilarD
- 3N. RengifoD
- 25F. DelgadoD
- 11J. LargachaM
- 21W. PachecoM
- 37L. MorenoM
- 24M. PalaciosM
- 10S. AcostaF
- 29M. DiazF
- 12J. BetancourthG
- 23T. BovoneD
- 26J. MontoyaM
- 27J. MoralesF
- 16Eber MorenoD
- 14Ederson MorenoM
- 7Á. PlataF
- 19M. AguirreM
- 2S. UrreaD
Form going into Junior vs Deportivo Pereira
Junior
- D2-2Internacional de Bogota10 October 2026
- L1-3away to Bucaramanga4 October 2026
- L1-3away to Atletico Nacional1 October 2026
- W2-0Independiente Medellin27 September 2026
Deportivo Pereira
- D0-0Deportivo Cali10 October 2026
- L0-4away to Cucuta4 October 2026
- L1-2Santa Fe29 September 2026
- D0-0Internacional de Bogota26 September 2026
What these results say
- Junior scored in every one of these 4 matches.
- Junior failed to win 3 of these 4 matches.
- Junior conceded in 3 of these 4 matches.
- Deportivo Pereira did not win any of these 4 matches.
- Deportivo Pereira failed to score in 3 of these 4 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Primera A table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | Junior | 13 | 2 | 5 | 6 | 19 | 23 | -4 | 11 |
| 19 | Deportivo Pereira | 13 | 1 | 7 | 5 | 8 | 18 | -10 | 10 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Junior vs Deportivo Pereira
- 3 February 2026Deportivo Pereira 2–3 JuniorPrimera A
- 18 October 2025Junior 3–2 Deportivo PereiraPrimera A
- 27 April 2025Deportivo Pereira 1–0 JuniorPrimera A
- 20 October 2024Junior 3–1 Deportivo PereiraPrimera A
- 23 May 2024Deportivo Pereira 0–0 JuniorPrimera A
- 19 May 2024Junior 2–3 Deportivo PereiraPrimera A
Leading scorers: Junior and Deportivo Pereira
Junior
GoalsAssists
- L. Muriel162
Deportivo Pereira
No player in Primera A's leading scorers — 8 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Expected against actual
Pre-match the model expected 1.97 goals for Junior and 0.70 for Deportivo Pereira; the game produced 1 and 1.
Goals
Scorers, in order: Jermein Pena 5' (Junior), Anderson Plata 58' (Deportivo Pereira).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,819 correct results out of 3,801 settled predictions (48%), with 383 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Junior the highest probability at 61%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.97 expected goals for Junior against 0.70 for Deportivo Pereira. Junior's attack/defence rating is 0.8/1.54 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.45/1.7 for Deportivo Pereira.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.