Bucaramanga
vs
Águilas Doradas
Primera A prediction & result
Final score: Bucaramanga 1-1 Águilas Doradas.
Before kick-off the model made it 55% Bucaramanga, 26% draw, 19% Águilas Doradas — fair odds of 1.82, 3.85 and 5.26. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0 (13%).
Expected goals: Bucaramanga 1.78, Águilas Doradas 0.83.
Both teams to score: 47%. Over 2.5 goals: 48%, under 2.5: 52%.
Model confidence: High.
Published · updated
More Colombian Primera A predictions
Model insights: Bucaramanga vs Águilas Doradas
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Bucaramanga at 55% here. Across 3,740 settled matches (as of 15 October 2026), 896 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 55.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.5%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Bucaramanga vs Águilas Doradas
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 25C. FiermarínG
- 19A. GutiérrezD
- 6N. CastrillónD
- 23C. RomañaD
- 24J. OrtizD
- 80O. AlbornozD
- 10F. SambuezaM
- 21F. CharrupíM
- 22F. CastroM
- 17E. BatallaM
- 27L. PonsF
- 29S. VelasquezM
- 28L. FloresM
- 30V. CantilloM
- 9B. CaicedoF
- 7K. LondoñoM
- 5A. MurriloF
- 12D. NovoaG
- 3M. ReaD
- 11F. SalazarF
- 1J. SotoG
- 26D. LozanoD
- 4A. MosqueraD
- 3J. OntanedaD
- 32J. MenaD
- 19F. LozanoM
- 6I. RojasM
- 24J. ÁvaloM
- 8A. RicaurteM
- 16M. RamírezM
- 9A. VásquezF
- 12Juan HurtadoG
- 30N. LaraD
- 10Junior Alexander Noguera MachucaM
- 29T. BlandonF
- 25J. RoaM
- 28S. RodríguezD
- 7Eduar ArízalasF
- 21R. MárquezF
- 2J. GarcíaD
Form going into Bucaramanga vs Águilas Doradas
Bucaramanga
- W3-1Junior4 October 2026
- W3-1away to Once Caldas26 September 2026
- W2-0Internacional de Bogota20 September 2026
- D2-2Independiente Medellin18 September 2026
Águilas Doradas
- D2-2away to Alianza Valledupar9 October 2026
- W2-0Jaguares3 October 2026
- L0-2away to Deportivo Cali28 September 2026
- L0-1away to America de Cali24 September 2026
What these results say
- Bucaramanga went unbeaten through these 4 matches.
- Bucaramanga scored in every one of these 4 matches.
- Bucaramanga won 3 of these 4 matches.
- Águilas Doradas failed to win 3 of these 4 matches.
- Águilas Doradas conceded in 3 of these 4 matches.
- 3 of these 4 matches for Águilas Doradas had two goals or fewer.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Primera A table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Bucaramanga | 12 | 6 | 6 | 0 | 21 | 11 | +10 | 24 |
| 11 | Águilas Doradas | 13 | 3 | 7 | 3 | 17 | 18 | -1 | 16 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Bucaramanga vs Águilas Doradas
- 7 April 2026Águilas Doradas 2–1 BucaramangaPrimera A
- 25 August 2025Bucaramanga 4–0 Águilas DoradasPrimera A
- 8 March 2025Águilas Doradas 0–1 BucaramangaPrimera A
- 21 October 2024Águilas Doradas 1–3 BucaramangaPrimera A
- 27 March 2024Bucaramanga 1–0 Águilas DoradasPrimera A
- 21 August 2023Bucaramanga 1–1 Águilas DoradasPrimera A
Leading scorers: Bucaramanga and Águilas Doradas
Bucaramanga
GoalsAssists
- L. Pons115
- E. Batalla115
Águilas Doradas
GoalsAssists
- Jorge Luis Rivaldo Pinto110
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Expected against actual
Pre-match the model expected 1.78 goals for Bucaramanga and 0.83 for Águilas Doradas; the game produced 1 and 1.
Goals
Scorers, in order: Edwin Castro 35' (Bucaramanga), Jorge Soto 90' (Águilas Doradas).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,819 correct results out of 3,801 settled predictions (48%), with 383 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Bucaramanga the highest probability at 55%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.78 expected goals for Bucaramanga against 0.83 for Águilas Doradas. Bucaramanga's attack/defence rating is 0.79/1.22 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.67/1.55 for Águilas Doradas.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.