Regular Season - 9 · 13 October 2026, 18:45 UTC

Queen's Park vs Inverness CT Championship prediction & result

The City Stadium, Glasgow
Referee: D. Nicolson
Full time2 – 1

Final score: Queen's Park 2-1 Inverness CT.

Before kick-off the model made it 31% Queen's Park, 27% draw, 42% Inverness CT — fair odds of 3.23, 3.70 and 2.38. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 1-2.

Expected goals: Queen's Park 1.24, Inverness CT 1.56.

Both teams to score: 57%. Over 2.5 goals: 53%, under 2.5: 47%.

Model confidence: Medium.

Published · updated

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Model insights: Queen's Park vs Inverness CT

57%
Both teams to score
53%
Over 2.5 goals
47%
Under 2.5 goals
Most likely scorelines1-1 12%1-2 9%0-1 9%

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Inverness CT at 42% here. Across 3,740 settled matches (as of 15 October 2026), 1,748 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.7% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Queen's Park95%Draw5%Inverness CT0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

7'
⚽G. Shinnie
⚽A. Connollyassist: L. Stewart
18'
⚽A. Connollyassist: M. Ruth
41'
🔁B. Brannanout: C. Smith
46'
M. Ruth
49'
57'
🔁R. Duncanout: L. Sole
57'
🔁R. MacGregorout: A. Stewart
57'
🔁L. Longstaffout: A. Bavidge
58'
L. Stewart
🔁M. Ruthout: N. Todorov
68'
🔁L. Stewartout: R. McLean
68'
🔁L. Longridgeout: S. Martin
68'
74'
🔁L. Stewartout: D. E. Osong
83'
🔁A. Mackinnonout: D. Wotherspoon

Line-ups

Queen's Park 4-2-3-1
  • 1D. MitchellG
  • 2Zach MauchinD
  • 12C. PignatielloD
  • 5R. LamieD
  • 22M. ShielsD
  • 7L. LongridgeM
  • 26Ben BrannanM
  • 11A. ConnollyM
  • 24A. McCallionM
  • 14L. StewartM
  • 9M. RuthF
Substitutes
  • 27C. SmithF
  • 8S. MartinM
  • 25Z. LawsonF
  • 17T. McDonnellM
  • 21R. McLeanM
  • 77N. TodorovF
  • 20K. RodgerD
  • 31M. SliwinskiG
Coach: S. Crighton
Inverness CT 4-2-3-1
  • 1R. MunroG
  • 2C. MacleodD
  • 15K. SmithD
  • 5Remmi Eugene SavageD
  • 4G. ShinnieD
  • 26R. MacGregorM
  • 7P. AllanM
  • 16R. DuncanM
  • 8A. MackinnonM
  • 11L. LongstaffM
  • 9L. StewartF
Substitutes
  • 12D. MackayM
  • 20D. OsongF
  • 21L. RossG
  • 17L. SoleM
  • 35A. StewartM
  • 10D. WotherspoonM
  • 6D. DevineD
  • 3Noa BoutinD
  • 36A. BavidgeF
Coach: S. Kellacher

Form going into Queen's Park vs Inverness CT

Queen's Park

  • L0-2away to Raith Rovers10 October 2026
  • L1-2away to Arbroath25 September 2026
  • L0-2Ayr Utd18 September 2026
  • L0-2away to Dunfermline12 September 2026

Inverness CT

  • W2-0Stenhousemuir10 October 2026
  • W2-0Morton25 September 2026
  • D2-2away to Livingston19 September 2026
  • W3-1away to Ayr Utd12 September 2026

What these results say

  • Queen's Park did not win any of these 4 matches.
  • Queen's Park conceded in every one of these 4 matches.
  • Queen's Park failed to score in 3 of these 4 matches.
  • Inverness CT went unbeaten through these 4 matches.
  • Inverness CT scored in every one of these 4 matches.
  • Inverness CT won 3 of these 4 matches.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.

Championship table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
9Queen's Park10217616-107
6Inverness CT103431211+113

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Queen's Park vs Inverness CT

  • 13 October 2026Queen's Park 2–1 Inverness CTChampionship
  • 13 April 2024Queen's Park 0–1 Inverness CTChampionship
  • 3 February 2024Inverness CT 0–1 Queen's ParkChampionship
  • 9 December 2023Queen's Park 1–4 Inverness CTChampionship
  • 5 August 2023Inverness CT 1–2 Queen's ParkChampionship
  • 18 March 2023Queen's Park 2–1 Inverness CTChampionship

Expected against actual

Pre-match the model expected 1.24 goals for Queen's Park and 1.56 for Inverness CT; the game produced 2 and 1.

Goals

Scorers, in order: G. Shinnie 7' (Inverness CT), A. Connolly 18' (Queen's Park), A. Connolly 41' (Queen's Park).

How this was produced

Publicly tracked record so far: 1,819 correct results out of 3,801 settled predictions (48%), with 383 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.

Full method: how the model works.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.

Team comparison

Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.

Why the model favours this side

The model gives Inverness CT the highest probability at 42%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.24 expected goals for Queen's Park against 1.56 for Inverness CT. Queen's Park's attack/defence rating is 0.34/2.64 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.49/2.24 for Inverness CT.