Birmingham
vs
Preston
Championship prediction & result
Final score: Birmingham 4-0 Preston.
Before kick-off the model made it 59% Birmingham, 24% draw, 17% Preston — fair odds of 1.69, 4.17 and 5.88. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-0 (12%).
Expected goals: Birmingham 1.95, Preston 0.79.
Both teams to score: 47%. Over 2.5 goals: 52%, under 2.5: 48%.
Model confidence: High.
Published · updated
More Championship predictions
Model insights: Birmingham vs Preston
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Birmingham at 59% here. Across 3,740 settled matches (as of 15 October 2026), 896 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 55.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.5%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Birmingham vs Preston
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1J. BeadleG
- 26B. Osayi-SamuelD
- 5P. NeumannD
- 4C. KlarerD
- 20A. CochraneD
- 24T. IwataM
- 14J. SolisM
- 16P. RobertsM
- 28J. StansfieldM
- 17L. MillarM
- 9A. PriskeF
- 21R. AllsopG
- 18M. BirdM
- 33M. DuckschF
- 23D. FryD
- 19T. Gardner-HickmanM
- 10D. GrayF
- 2E. LairdD
- 7Carlos VicenteF
- 32L. VázquezF
- 1D. IversenG
- 24O. OffiahD
- 14J. StoreyD
- 16A. HughesD
- 17S. MillsM
- 27L. LeroyM
- 15J. ThompsonM
- 11T. SmallM
- 7A. DevineM
- 20L. GibbsM
- 10C. LangF
- 9J. ErabiF
- 19L. GibsonD
- 30G. GrybaF
- 6L. LindsayD
- 23A. MoranM
- 21L. NichollsG
- 2Pol ValentínD
- 3A. VukčevićD
- 37D. BurgzorgF
Form going into Birmingham vs Preston
Birmingham
- W1-0away to West Brom10 October 2026
- D2-2Middlesbrough19 September 2026
- W2-1away to Derby12 September 2026
- L1-2away to Norwich9 September 2026
Preston
- L0-1Millwall10 October 2026
- D2-2away to QPR19 September 2026
- L0-1Lincoln12 September 2026
- L1-2away to Watford8 September 2026
What these results say
- Birmingham scored in every one of these 4 matches.
- Birmingham conceded in 3 of these 4 matches.
- 3 of these 4 matches for Birmingham had three goals or more.
- Preston did not win any of these 4 matches.
- Preston conceded in every one of these 4 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Championship table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Birmingham | 10 | 4 | 5 | 1 | 17 | 11 | +6 | 17 |
| 24 | Preston | 10 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 8 | 20 | -12 | 4 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Birmingham vs Preston
- 13 October 2026Birmingham 4–0 PrestonChampionship
- 22 April 2026Birmingham 2–1 PrestonChampionship
- 21 October 2025Preston 0–1 BirminghamChampionship
- 1 April 2024Birmingham 1–0 PrestonChampionship
- 19 September 2023Preston 2–1 BirminghamChampionship
- 21 January 2023Birmingham 1–2 PrestonChampionship
Leading scorers: Birmingham and Preston
Birmingham
GoalsAssists
- A. Priske41
Preston
No player in Championship's leading scorers — 8 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Expected against actual
Pre-match the model expected 1.95 goals for Birmingham and 0.79 for Preston; the game produced 4 and 0.
Goals
Scorers, in order: Liam Millar 34' (Birmingham), August Priske 45' (Birmingham), August Priske 45' (Birmingham), Demarai Gray 76' (Birmingham).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,819 correct results out of 3,801 settled predictions (48%), with 383 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Birmingham the highest probability at 59%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.95 expected goals for Birmingham against 0.79 for Preston. Birmingham's attack/defence rating is 0.77/1.16 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.57/1.68 for Preston.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.