Middlesbrough
vs
Cardiff
Championship prediction
Our model says: Middlesbrough 2–1 Cardiff
The model makes it 52% Middlesbrough, 25% draw, 23% Cardiff — fair odds of 1.92, 4.00 and 4.35. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Middlesbrough 1.99, Cardiff 1.15.
Both teams to score: 59%. Over 2.5 goals: 61%, under 2.5: 39%.
Model confidence: High.
Edge to Middlesbrough: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.
Published · updated
Key facts
- Middlesbrough are 2nd on 21 points from 10 games; Cardiff are 19th on 10 points from 10 games — Championship.
- Middlesbrough are unbeaten in their last 5 games (3 won), most recently a 3-2 win away to Stoke City.
- Cardiff have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 5-1 win at home to Watford.
- Last 6 meetings: Middlesbrough 4 wins to 1, 1 draw; the most recent, 4 January 2025, ended Middlesbrough 1–1 Cardiff.
More Championship predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Middlesbrough vs Cardiff
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Middlesbrough at 52% here. Across 3,740 settled matches (as of 15 October 2026), 896 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 55.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.5%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Middlesbrough vs Cardiff
Middlesbrough
- W3-2away to Stoke City13 October 2026
- W1-0Wolves10 October 2026
- D2-2away to Birmingham19 September 2026
- D2-2Millwall15 September 2026
- W4-3Norwich12 September 2026
Cardiff
- W5-1Watford13 October 2026
- L1-2away to Blackburn10 October 2026
- W3-1Charlton19 September 2026
- L0-1away to Bolton12 September 2026
- D1-1Stoke City8 September 2026
What these results say
- Middlesbrough went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- Middlesbrough scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Middlesbrough conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Cardiff conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Cardiff scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Both sides scored in 4 of these 5 matches for Cardiff.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Who is missing for Middlesbrough vs Cardiff
Middlesbrough
- A. Jonescalf injury
- D. Strelecinactive
- R. Pukstasinactive
Cardiff
- C. Chambersknee injury
- K. Bieliksuspended
- R. Colwillhealth problemsDoubtful
- Y. SalechinactiveDoubtful
From our data provider's injury and suspension report, refreshed twice a day. Doubtful means the player may still be named in the squad. The model's probabilities do not yet account for absences.
Championship table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Middlesbrough | 10 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 20 | 14 | +6 | 21 |
| 19 | Cardiff | 10 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 16 | 15 | +1 | 10 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Middlesbrough
Chance to finish in the top four · 57% today
Cardiff
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 9% today
From our Championship season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. Each figure is that side's chance once this match ends in a win, a draw or a defeat for it, with every other match still left to the model. Positions in the table, not competition rules: what a place is worth differs from league to league.
Head-to-head: Middlesbrough vs Cardiff
- 4 January 2025Middlesbrough 1–1 CardiffChampionship
- 31 August 2024Cardiff 0–2 MiddlesbroughChampionship
- 27 April 2024Cardiff 1–4 MiddlesbroughChampionship
- 3 October 2023Middlesbrough 2–0 CardiffChampionship
- 11 February 2023Cardiff 1–3 MiddlesbroughChampionship
- 13 September 2022Middlesbrough 2–3 CardiffChampionship
Leading scorers: Middlesbrough and Cardiff
Middlesbrough
GoalsAssists
- W. Lankshear80
Cardiff
GoalsAssists
- J. Moylan52
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Middlesbrough carry a model rating of 6.71 against 6.55 for Cardiff. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.99 goals for Middlesbrough and 1.15 for Cardiff. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Middlesbrough rate 0.89 in attack and 1.19 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Cardiff rate 0.81 and 1.48.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Middlesbrough a 18.5% chance of the title and Cardiff 0.3%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,819 correct results out of 3,801 settled predictions (48%), with 383 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Middlesbrough the highest probability at 52%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.99 expected goals for Middlesbrough against 1.15 for Cardiff. Middlesbrough's attack/defence rating is 0.89/1.19 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.81/1.48 for Cardiff.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Middlesbrough at home · Cardiff away
League matches only, Championship, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Position by match
MiddlesbroughCardiff
Middlesbrough are 2nd after 10 Championship matches (between 2nd and 10th so far); Cardiff are 18th after 10 (between 11th and 22nd). Rebuilt from the season's results after each side's matches (x-axis: that side's match number); ties split on goal difference, then goals scored. Points deductions (Southampton −4) count from the first match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Championship matches this season: Middlesbrough 10, Cardiff 10.
Middlesbrough score most often in the 46–60 minute window (6 goals); Cardiff have let in 3 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
Middlesbrough
- at Bolton23 Oct · Championshipwin 41%
- vs Charlton31 Oct · Championshipwin 55%
- at Wrexham4 Nov · Championshipwin 40%
- at Watford7 Nov · Championshipwin 52%
- vs Bristol City21 Nov · Championshipwin 54%
Cardiff
- vs Birmingham24 Oct · Championshipwin 37%
- at Wolves31 Oct · Championshipwin 25%
- vs West Ham4 Nov · Championshipwin 31%
- vs Burnley7 Nov · Championshipwin 35%
- at Norwich21 Nov · Championshipwin 30%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.