Millwall
vs
Lincoln
Championship prediction
Our model says: Millwall 1–0 Lincoln
The model makes it 54% Millwall, 26% draw, 20% Lincoln — fair odds of 1.85, 3.85 and 5.00. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0 (13%).
Expected goals: Millwall 1.71, Lincoln 0.82.
Both teams to score: 46%. Over 2.5 goals: 46%, under 2.5: 54%.
Model confidence: High.
Edge to Millwall: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.
Published · updated
Key facts
- Millwall are 11th on 14 points from 10 games; Lincoln are 18th on 11 points from 10 games — Championship.
- Millwall have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 0-1 defeat at home to Swansea.
- Lincoln are without a win in 3 games, most recently a 0-6 defeat at home to West Ham.
More Championship predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Millwall vs Lincoln
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Millwall at 54% here. Across 3,740 settled matches (as of 15 October 2026), 896 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 55.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.5%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Millwall vs Lincoln
Millwall
- L0-1Swansea13 October 2026
- W1-0away to Preston10 October 2026
- D2-2West Ham19 September 2026
- D2-2away to Middlesbrough15 September 2026
- L1-3away to Blackburn12 September 2026
Lincoln
- L0-6West Ham14 October 2026
- L0-3away to Sheffield Utd10 October 2026
- L1-2Swansea19 September 2026
- W1-0away to Bristol City15 September 2026
- W1-0away to Preston12 September 2026
What these results say
- Millwall failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Millwall scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Millwall conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Who is missing for Millwall vs Lincoln
Millwall
- C. De Norremuscle injury
- J. Coburnmuscle injury
- L. Jensenmuscle injury
- M. Ivanovichamstring injury
- M. Luongoknee injury
- M. Servaisinactive
- R. Esseankle injury
Lincoln
- C. McGrandlessuspended (red card)
- M. Meliathigh injury
- T. Darikwaknee injury
- T. Hamersuspended (red card)
- R. Hackett-FairchildinactiveDoubtful
From our data provider's injury and suspension report, refreshed twice a day. Doubtful means the player may still be named in the squad. The model's probabilities do not yet account for absences.
Championship table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Millwall | 10 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 16 | 16 | 0 | 14 |
| 18 | Lincoln | 10 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 7 | 17 | -10 | 11 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Millwall
Chance to finish in the top four · 19% today
Lincoln
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 29% today
From our Championship season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. Each figure is that side's chance once this match ends in a win, a draw or a defeat for it, with every other match still left to the model. Positions in the table, not competition rules: what a place is worth differs from league to league.
Leading scorers: Millwall and Lincoln
Millwall
GoalsAssists
- L. Dykes41
- C. Neghli32
Lincoln
No player in Championship's leading scorers — 7 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Millwall carry a model rating of 6.62 against 6.38 for Lincoln. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.71 goals for Millwall and 0.82 for Lincoln. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Millwall rate 0.77 in attack and 1.21 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Lincoln rate 0.57 and 1.47.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Millwall a 2.2% chance of the title and Lincoln 0%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,819 correct results out of 3,801 settled predictions (48%), with 383 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Millwall the highest probability at 54%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.71 expected goals for Millwall against 0.82 for Lincoln. Millwall's attack/defence rating is 0.77/1.21 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.57/1.47 for Lincoln.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Millwall at home · Lincoln away
League matches only, Championship, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Position by match
MillwallLincoln
Millwall are 10th after 10 Championship matches (between 1st and 11th so far); Lincoln are 18th after 10 (between 8th and 23rd). Rebuilt from the season's results after each side's matches (x-axis: that side's match number); ties split on goal difference, then goals scored. Points deductions (Southampton −4) count from the first match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Championship matches this season: Millwall 10, Lincoln 10.
Millwall score most often in the 76–90 minute window (5 goals); Lincoln have let in 4 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
Millwall
- at Portsmouth24 Oct · Championshipwin 36%
- vs Derby31 Oct · Championshipwin 51%
- at Birmingham3 Nov · Championshipwin 29%
- at West Brom7 Nov · Championshipwin 33%
- vs QPR21 Nov · Championshipwin 44%
Lincoln
- vs Burnley24 Oct · Championshipwin 26%
- vs Birmingham31 Oct · Championshipwin 28%
- at Watford3 Nov · Championshipwin 34%
- at QPR7 Nov · Championshipwin 22%
- vs Wrexham21 Nov · Championshipwin 35%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.