Swansea
vs
West Ham
Championship prediction
Our model says: Swansea 1–0 West Ham
The model makes it 36% Swansea, 30% draw, 34% West Ham — fair odds of 2.78, 3.33 and 2.94. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Swansea 1.21, West Ham 1.17.
Both teams to score: 49%. Over 2.5 goals: 43%, under 2.5: 57%.
Model confidence: Low.
A tight game: Swansea and West Ham are within 3 points of each other, so the draw is a real outcome here.
Published · updated
Key facts
- Swansea are top on 23 points from 10 games; West Ham are 3rd on 19 points from 10 games — Championship.
- Swansea are unbeaten in 4 games, most recently a 1-0 win away to Millwall.
- West Ham are unbeaten in their last 5 games (3 won), most recently a 6-0 win away to Lincoln.
- Last 6 meetings: West Ham 3 wins to 2, 1 draw; the most recent, 3 March 2018, ended Swansea 4–1 West Ham.
More Championship predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Swansea vs West Ham
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Swansea at 36% here. Across 3,740 settled matches (as of 15 October 2026), 2,920 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.5% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.6%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Swansea vs West Ham
Swansea
- W1-0away to Millwall13 October 2026
- W2-1Norwich10 October 2026
- W2-1away to Lincoln19 September 2026
- W3-1Burnley12 September 2026
- L1-3away to Southampton8 September 2026
West Ham
- W6-0away to Lincoln14 October 2026
- D1-1QPR9 October 2026
- D2-2away to Millwall19 September 2026
- W6-0Wrexham11 September 2026
- W3-2away to Bolton8 September 2026
What these results say
- Swansea scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Swansea won 4 of these 5 matches.
- Swansea conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- West Ham went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- West Ham scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for West Ham had three goals or more.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Who is missing for Swansea vs West Ham
Swansea
- C. Burgessachilles tendon injury
- F. Lissahsuspended (yellow cards)
- J. Keymuscle injury
- S. Eustaquioshoulder injury
West Ham
- K. Lamadridinjury
From our data provider's injury and suspension report, refreshed twice a day. Doubtful means the player may still be named in the squad. The model's probabilities do not yet account for absences.
Championship table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Swansea | 10 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 16 | 7 | +9 | 23 |
| 3 | West Ham | 10 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 29 | 12 | +17 | 19 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Swansea
Chance to finish in the top four · 47% today
West Ham
Chance to finish in the top four · 67% today
From our Championship season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. Each figure is that side's chance once this match ends in a win, a draw or a defeat for it, with every other match still left to the model. Positions in the table, not competition rules: what a place is worth differs from league to league.
Head-to-head: Swansea vs West Ham
- 3 March 2018Swansea 4–1 West HamPremier League
- 30 September 2017West Ham 1–0 SwanseaPremier League
- 8 April 2017West Ham 1–0 SwanseaPremier League
- 26 December 2016Swansea 1–4 West HamPremier League
- 7 May 2016West Ham 1–4 SwanseaPremier League
- 20 December 2015Swansea 0–0 West HamPremier League
Leading scorers: Swansea and West Ham
Swansea
GoalsAssists
- A. Idah41
West Ham
GoalsAssists
- J. Bowen65
- K. Mavropanos50
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Swansea carry a model rating of 6.68 against 6.77 for West Ham. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.21 goals for Swansea and 1.17 for West Ham. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Swansea rate 0.75 in attack and 1.07 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; West Ham rate 0.92 and 1.07.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Swansea a 11.1% chance of the title and West Ham 25.2%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,819 correct results out of 3,801 settled predictions (48%), with 383 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Swansea the highest probability at 36%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.21 expected goals for Swansea against 1.17 for West Ham. Swansea's attack/defence rating is 0.75/1.07 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.92/1.07 for West Ham.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Swansea at home · West Ham away
League matches only, Championship, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Position by match
SwanseaWest Ham
Swansea are 1st after 10 Championship matches (between 1st and 6th so far); West Ham are 3rd after 10 (between 1st and 19th). Rebuilt from the season's results after each side's matches (x-axis: that side's match number); ties split on goal difference, then goals scored. Points deductions (Southampton −4) count from the first match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Championship matches this season: Swansea 10, West Ham 10.
Swansea score most often in the 46–60 minute window (5 goals); West Ham have let in 1 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
Swansea
- at QPR24 Oct · Championshipwin 34%
- vs Blackburn31 Oct · Championshipwin 47%
- at Portsmouth3 Nov · Championshipwin 38%
- at Birmingham7 Nov · Championshipwin 31%
- vs West Brom21 Nov · Championshipwin 45%
West Ham
- vs Southampton24 Oct · Championshipwin 41%
- vs West Brom31 Oct · Championshipwin 52%
- at Cardiff4 Nov · Championshipwin 42%
- at Blackburn7 Nov · Championshipwin 41%
- vs Preston21 Nov · Championshipwin 67%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.