Birmingham
vs
QPR
Championship prediction
Our model says: Birmingham 1–0 QPR
The model makes it 45% Birmingham, 28% draw, 27% QPR — fair odds of 2.22, 3.57 and 3.70. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Birmingham 1.49, QPR 1.02.
Both teams to score: 50%. Over 2.5 goals: 46%, under 2.5: 54%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published · updated
Key facts
- Birmingham are 4th on 17 points from 10 games; QPR are 5th on 17 points from 10 games — Championship.
- Birmingham are unbeaten in 4 games, most recently a 4-0 win at home to Preston.
- QPR are unbeaten in their last 5 games (1 won), most recently a 4-1 win at home to Derby.
- Last 6 meetings: Birmingham 3 wins to 2, 1 draw; the most recent, 11 March 2026, ended Birmingham 1–0 QPR.
More Championship predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Birmingham vs QPR
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Birmingham at 45% here. Across 3,740 settled matches (as of 15 October 2026), 1,748 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.7% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Birmingham vs QPR
Birmingham
- W4-0Preston13 October 2026
- W1-0away to West Brom10 October 2026
- D2-2Middlesbrough19 September 2026
- W2-1away to Derby12 September 2026
- L1-2away to Norwich9 September 2026
QPR
- W4-1Derby14 October 2026
- D1-1away to West Ham9 October 2026
- D2-2Preston19 September 2026
- D1-1away to West Brom12 September 2026
- D0-0away to Charlton9 September 2026
What these results say
- Birmingham scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Birmingham had three goals or more.
- QPR went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- QPR failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- QPR scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Who is missing for Birmingham vs QPR
Birmingham
- M. Leonardachilles tendon injury
- Paik Seung-Hohealth problems
QPR
- D. Cirkinsuspended (red card)
- I. Chairmuscle injury
- K. Dembeleknee injury
- K. Saitoinactive
- T. Lampteyinactive
- R. BurrellinactiveDoubtful
From our data provider's injury and suspension report, refreshed twice a day. Doubtful means the player may still be named in the squad. The model's probabilities do not yet account for absences.
Championship table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Birmingham | 10 | 4 | 5 | 1 | 17 | 11 | +6 | 17 |
| 5 | QPR | 10 | 4 | 5 | 1 | 15 | 9 | +6 | 17 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Birmingham
Chance to finish in the top four · 27% today
QPR
Chance to finish in the top four · 15% today
From our Championship season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. Each figure is that side's chance once this match ends in a win, a draw or a defeat for it, with every other match still left to the model. Positions in the table, not competition rules: what a place is worth differs from league to league.
Head-to-head: Birmingham vs QPR
- 11 March 2026Birmingham 1–0 QPRChampionship
- 9 December 2025QPR 2–1 BirminghamChampionship
- 29 March 2024QPR 2–1 BirminghamChampionship
- 22 September 2023Birmingham 0–0 QPRChampionship
- 18 March 2023QPR 0–1 BirminghamChampionship
- 28 October 2022Birmingham 2–0 QPRChampionship
Leading scorers: Birmingham and QPR
Birmingham
GoalsAssists
- A. Priske41
QPR
No player in Championship's leading scorers — 15 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Birmingham carry a model rating of 6.65 against 6.58 for QPR. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.49 goals for Birmingham and 1.02 for QPR. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Birmingham rate 0.77 in attack and 1.16 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; QPR rate 0.74 and 1.28.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Birmingham a 4.1% chance of the title and QPR 1.4%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,819 correct results out of 3,801 settled predictions (48%), with 383 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Birmingham the highest probability at 45%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.49 expected goals for Birmingham against 1.02 for QPR. Birmingham's attack/defence rating is 0.77/1.16 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.74/1.28 for QPR.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Birmingham at home · QPR away
League matches only, Championship, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Position by match
BirminghamQPR
Birmingham are 3rd after 10 Championship matches (between 3rd and 15th so far); QPR are 4th after 10 (between 1st and 5th). Rebuilt from the season's results after each side's matches (x-axis: that side's match number); ties split on goal difference, then goals scored. Points deductions (Southampton −4) count from the first match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Championship matches this season: Birmingham 10, QPR 10.
Birmingham score most often in the 46–60 minute window (4 goals); QPR have let in 1 there.
QPR score most often in the 31–45 minute window (5 goals); Birmingham have let in 8 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
Birmingham
- at Cardiff24 Oct · Championshipwin 35%
- at Lincoln31 Oct · Championshipwin 42%
- vs Millwall3 Nov · Championshipwin 42%
- vs Swansea7 Nov · Championshipwin 39%
- at Stoke City21 Nov · Championshipwin 36%
QPR
- vs Swansea24 Oct · Championshipwin 36%
- at Southampton31 Oct · Championshipwin 21%
- vs Burnley3 Nov · Championshipwin 36%
- vs Lincoln7 Nov · Championshipwin 51%
- at Millwall21 Nov · Championshipwin 28%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.