Championship predictions

Friday 16 October — 1 match

• 19:00 UTC Burnley vs Wolves — model 42% / 29% / 29%, most likely 1-0, fair odds 2.38 · 3.45 · 3.45. Head-to-head record. Evenly matched

Saturday 17 October — 11 matches

• 11:30 UTC Watford vs Charlton — model 33% / 32% / 35%, most likely 0-1, fair odds 3.03 · 3.13 · 2.86. Head-to-head record. Tight game · draw in reach
• 11:30 UTC Millwall vs Lincoln — model 54% / 26% / 20%, most likely 1-0, fair odds 1.85 · 3.85 · 5.00. Edge: Millwall
• 11:30 UTC Middlesbrough vs Cardiff — model 52% / 25% / 23%, most likely 2-1, fair odds 1.92 · 4.00 · 4.35. Head-to-head record. Edge: Middlesbrough
• 14:00 UTC Southampton vs Bolton — model 60% / 22% / 18%, most likely 2-1, fair odds 1.67 · 4.55 · 5.56. Edge: Southampton
• 14:00 UTC Birmingham vs QPR — model 45% / 28% / 27%, most likely 1-0, fair odds 2.22 · 3.57 · 3.70. Head-to-head record. Evenly matched
• 14:00 UTC Bristol City vs Sheffield Utd — model 38% / 28% / 34%, most likely 1-0, fair odds 2.63 · 3.57 · 2.94. Head-to-head record. Evenly matched
• 14:00 UTC West Brom vs Blackburn — model 40% / 32% / 28%, most likely 1-0, fair odds 2.50 · 3.13 · 3.57. Head-to-head record. Evenly matched
• 14:00 UTC Derby vs Stoke City — model 39% / 28% / 33%, most likely 1-0, fair odds 2.56 · 3.57 · 3.03. Head-to-head record. Evenly matched
• 14:00 UTC Norwich vs Portsmouth — model 48% / 26% / 26%, most likely 2-1, fair odds 2.08 · 3.85 · 3.85. Head-to-head record. Evenly matched
• 14:00 UTC Swansea vs West Ham — model 36% / 30% / 34%, most likely 1-0, fair odds 2.78 · 3.33 · 2.94. Head-to-head record. Tight game · draw in reach
• 14:00 UTC Wrexham vs Preston — model 53% / 26% / 21%, most likely 1-0, fair odds 1.89 · 3.85 · 4.76. Edge: Wrexham

Tuesday 20 October — 1 match

• 18:45 UTC Wolves vs Portsmouth — model 51% / 27% / 22%, most likely 1-0, fair odds 1.96 · 3.70 · 4.55. Edge: Wolves

Friday 23 October — 1 match

• 19:00 UTC Bolton vs Middlesbrough — model 32% / 27% / 41%, most likely 1-2, fair odds 3.13 · 3.70 · 2.44. Edge: Middlesbrough

Saturday 24 October — 11 matches

• 11:30 UTC Sheffield Utd vs Derby — model 48% / 26% / 26%, most likely 2-1, fair odds 2.08 · 3.85 · 3.85. Evenly matched
• 11:30 UTC Charlton vs Norwich — model 34% / 29% / 37%, most likely 0-1, fair odds 2.94 · 3.45 · 2.70. Tight game · draw in reach
• 11:30 UTC Portsmouth vs Millwall — model 35% / 29% / 36%, most likely 0-1, fair odds 2.86 · 3.45 · 2.78. Tight game · draw in reach
• 14:00 UTC Wolves vs Watford — model 61% / 24% / 15%, most likely 2-0, fair odds 1.64 · 4.17 · 6.67. One-sided: Wolves
• 14:00 UTC Cardiff vs Birmingham — model 37% / 28% / 35%, most likely 2-1, fair odds 2.70 · 3.57 · 2.86. Tight game · draw in reach
• 14:00 UTC West Ham vs Southampton — model 41% / 28% / 31%, most likely 2-1, fair odds 2.44 · 3.57 · 3.23. Evenly matched
• 14:00 UTC Preston vs West Brom — model 29% / 31% / 40%, most likely 0-1, fair odds 3.45 · 3.23 · 2.50. Edge: West Brom
• 14:00 UTC Blackburn vs Wrexham — model 42% / 29% / 29%, most likely 1-0, fair odds 2.38 · 3.45 · 3.45. Evenly matched
• 14:00 UTC QPR vs Swansea — model 36% / 30% / 34%, most likely 1-0, fair odds 2.78 · 3.33 · 2.94. Tight game · draw in reach
• 14:00 UTC Stoke City vs Bristol City — model 43% / 28% / 29%, most likely 1-0, fair odds 2.33 · 3.57 · 3.45. Evenly matched
• 14:00 UTC Lincoln vs Burnley — model 26% / 29% / 45%, most likely 0-1, fair odds 3.85 · 3.45 · 2.22. One-sided: Burnley

Last round: the model's hits and misses

11–14 October: the model called the result of 8 of 13 matches.

• Southampton 1–0 Portsmouth — the model said 61% / 22% / 17%, most likely 2-0: result correct.
• Bristol City 0–1 Blackburn — the model said 41% / 29% / 30%, most likely 1-0: result missed.
• Burnley 2–2 Charlton — the model said 55% / 27% / 18%, most likely 1-0: result missed.
• Cardiff 5–1 Watford — the model said 47% / 28% / 25%, most likely 1-0: result correct.
• Millwall 0–1 Swansea — the model said 40% / 29% / 31%, most likely 1-0: result missed.
• Wolves 1–3 Bolton — the model said 56% / 24% / 20%, most likely 2-0: result missed.
• Wrexham 1–2 West Brom — the model said 41% / 30% / 29%, most likely 1-0: result missed.
• Birmingham 4–0 Preston — the model said 54% / 26% / 20%, most likely 1-0: result correct.
• Stoke City 2–3 Middlesbrough — the model said 33% / 28% / 39%, most likely 0-1: result correct.
• Norwich 0–1 Southampton — the model said 33% / 25% / 42%, most likely 1-2: result correct.
• Portsmouth 3–2 Sheffield Utd — the model said 36% / 29% / 35%, most likely 1-0: result correct.
• QPR 4–1 Derby — the model said 43% / 29% / 28%, most likely 1-0: result correct.
• Lincoln 0–6 West Ham — the model said 29% / 30% / 41%, most likely 0-1: result correct.