QPR
vs
Derby
Championship prediction & result
Final score: QPR 4-1 Derby.
Before kick-off the model made it 48% QPR, 27% draw, 25% Derby — fair odds of 2.08, 3.70 and 4.00. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: QPR 1.64, Derby 1.02.
Both teams to score: 52%. Over 2.5 goals: 50%, under 2.5: 50%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Published · updated
More Championship predictions
Model insights: QPR vs Derby
Has the model earned this number?
It puts QPR at 48% here. Across 3,740 settled matches (as of 15 October 2026), 1,748 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.7% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 5 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — QPR vs Derby
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1P. CharlesG
- 2K. AdamsonD
- 3J. DunneD
- 5R. EdwardsD
- 12B. KemperD
- 24N. MadsenM
- 18G. KamaraM
- 11P. SmythM
- 20H. ValeM
- 15A. LloydM
- 26Rayan Jawad KolliF
- 23I. AlemayehuM
- 6J. Clarke-SalterD
- 22R. KoneF
- 27A. MbengueD
- 4L. MorrisonD
- 17K. PokuM
- 40J. VaraneM
- 13C. WardG
- 33Leon ScarlettF
- 31J. VickersG
- 23J. WardD
- 6S. LangåsD
- 28D. SandersonD
- 26R. HedgesD
- 4D. OzohM
- 20A. MowattM
- 16M. FuseiniM
- 8B. ClarkM
- 11S. SzmodicsM
- 9C. MorrisF
- 10R. BrewsterF
- 29O. FrauloM
- 19H. MeisterF
- 24R. NyambeD
- 12R. O'DonnellG
- 15L. SalvesenF
- 27L. TravisM
- 33C. Blackett-TaylorF
- 13F. BilbijaM
Form going into QPR vs Derby
QPR
- D1-1away to West Ham9 October 2026
- D2-2Preston19 September 2026
- D1-1away to West Brom12 September 2026
- D0-0away to Charlton9 September 2026
Derby
- D1-1Wrexham10 October 2026
- D1-1away to Burnley19 September 2026
- L1-2Birmingham12 September 2026
- L0-1West Brom9 September 2026
What these results say
- QPR went unbeaten through these 4 matches.
- QPR did not win any of these 4 matches.
- QPR scored in 3 of these 4 matches.
- Derby did not win any of these 4 matches.
- Derby conceded in every one of these 4 matches.
- Derby scored in 3 of these 4 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Championship table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | QPR | 10 | 4 | 5 | 1 | 15 | 9 | +6 | 17 |
| 23 | Derby | 10 | 1 | 3 | 6 | 9 | 19 | -10 | 6 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: QPR vs Derby
- 14 October 2026QPR 4–1 DerbyChampionship
- 25 April 2026QPR 2–3 DerbyChampionship
- 25 October 2025Derby 1–0 QPRChampionship
- 14 February 2025QPR 4–0 DerbyChampionship
- 5 October 2024Derby 2–0 QPRChampionship
- 18 April 2022QPR 1–0 DerbyChampionship
Expected against actual
Pre-match the model expected 1.64 goals for QPR and 1.02 for Derby; the game produced 4 and 1.
A gap that size between expected and actual goals is normal in a single match — it is the reason we publish probabilities rather than predictions, and why the record below is measured over hundreds of games rather than one.
Goals
Scorers, in order: Alfie Lloyd 18' (QPR), Nicolas Madsen 22' (QPR), Harvey Vale 45' (QPR), Paul Smyth 68' (QPR), Lars-Jørgen Salvesen 90' (Derby).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,819 correct results out of 3,801 settled predictions (48%), with 383 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives QPR the highest probability at 48%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.64 expected goals for QPR against 1.02 for Derby. QPR's attack/defence rating is 0.74/1.28 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.67/1.47 for Derby.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.