Wrexham
vs
West Brom
Championship prediction & result
Final score: Wrexham 1-2 West Brom.
Before kick-off the model made it 39% Wrexham, 30% draw, 31% West Brom — fair odds of 2.56, 3.33 and 3.23. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Wrexham 1.22, West Brom 1.03.
Both teams to score: 46%. Over 2.5 goals: 39%, under 2.5: 61%.
Model confidence: Low.
Published · updated
More Championship predictions
Model insights: Wrexham vs West Brom
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Wrexham at 39% here. Across 3,740 settled matches (as of 15 October 2026), 2,920 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.5% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.6%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Wrexham vs West Brom
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 22A. PattersonG
- 12I. KaboréD
- 26Z. VynerD
- 5D. HyamD
- 2C. DoyleD
- 3J. EkomiéD
- 15G. DobsonM
- 8B. WhitemanM
- 20O. RathboneM
- 19K. MooreF
- 17C. O'HareF
- 21D. WardG
- 6J. WorrallD
- 30Daniel Edward Peter ImrayD
- 34A. JamesD
- 27L. O'BrienM
- 47R. LongmanM
- 28S. SmithF
- 11B. CadamarteriF
- 50Samuel ChesworthF
- 1M. O’LearyG
- 18B. PereiraD
- 2C. MephamD
- 6G. CampbellD
- 4C. StylesD
- 29Harry WhitwellM
- 15Tobias Christopher CollyerM
- 8J. MolumbyM
- 21I. PriceM
- 9B. StewartF
- 20R. NzingoulaF
- 3N. PhillipsD
- 7F. MyhreM
- 17O. DiakitéM
- 11J. MorganF
- 23T. BanyF
- 19A. HeggebøF
- 22C. TownsendD
- 13M. IngramG
- 35M. CrowtherM
Form going into Wrexham vs West Brom
Wrexham
- D1-1away to Derby10 October 2026
- W2-1Southampton19 September 2026
- L0-6away to West Ham11 September 2026
- D1-1Burnley8 September 2026
West Brom
- L0-1Birmingham10 October 2026
- L0-1away to Wolves20 September 2026
- D1-1QPR12 September 2026
- W1-0away to Derby9 September 2026
What these results say
- Wrexham conceded in every one of these 4 matches.
- Wrexham failed to win 3 of these 4 matches.
- Wrexham scored in 3 of these 4 matches.
- Every one of these 4 matches for West Brom had two goals or fewer.
- West Brom failed to win 3 of these 4 matches.
- West Brom conceded in 3 of these 4 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Championship table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | Wrexham | 10 | 2 | 5 | 3 | 11 | 15 | -4 | 11 |
| 6 | West Brom | 10 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 12 | 10 | +2 | 17 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Wrexham vs West Brom
- 13 October 2026Wrexham 1–2 West BromChampionship
- 3 April 2026West Brom 2–2 WrexhamChampionship
- 16 August 2025Wrexham 2–3 West BromChampionship
Leading scorers: Wrexham and West Brom
Wrexham
GoalsAssists
- K. Moore41
West Brom
GoalsAssists
- J. Morgan33
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Expected against actual
Pre-match the model expected 1.22 goals for Wrexham and 1.03 for West Brom; the game produced 1 and 2.
Goals
Scorers, in order: Kieffer Moore 64' (Wrexham), Isaac Price 79' (West Brom), Aune Heggebo 84' (West Brom).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,819 correct results out of 3,801 settled predictions (48%), with 383 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Wrexham the highest probability at 39%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.22 expected goals for Wrexham against 1.03 for West Brom. Wrexham's attack/defence rating is 0.72/1.41 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.61/1.12 for West Brom.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.