Rot-Weiß Essen
vs
Fortuna Köln
3. Liga prediction & result
Final score: Rot-Weiß Essen 2-0 Fortuna Köln.
Before kick-off the model made it 52% Rot-Weiß Essen, 29% draw, 19% Fortuna Köln — fair odds of 1.92, 3.45 and 5.26. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0 (17%).
Expected goals: Rot-Weiß Essen 1.47, Fortuna Köln 0.66.
Both teams to score: 38%. Over 2.5 goals: 36%, under 2.5: 64%.
Model confidence: High.
Published · updated
More 3. Liga predictions
Model insights: Rot-Weiß Essen vs Fortuna Köln
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Rot-Weiß Essen at 52% here. Across 3,740 settled matches (as of 15 October 2026), 896 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 55.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.5%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Rot-Weiß Essen vs Fortuna Köln
Line-ups
- 1J. GolzG
- 2M. KostkaD
- 15Ben Vincent HüningD
- 23J. Ríos AlonsoD
- 19F. BouebariD
- 22J. SietanM
- 11Noah PeschM
- 10M. ObuzM
- 17S. TelalovićM
- 18D. AbiamaM
- 20M. JanssenF
- 9J. PotoÄnikF
- 7Aiman DardariF
- 14L. BrummeF
- 32L. BazzoliD
- 36J. GnagnonD
- 16R. ReisigM
- 33Eric VerstappenG
- 35F. WienandG
- 26E. ÇelebiD
- 1L. WinklerG
- 31Neo TelleD
- 15David Haider Kamm Al-AzzaweD
- 5Seymour FungerD
- 3M. FischerD
- 6T. GeerkensM
- 11G. StrauchM
- 20A. StanilewiczM
- 38Bennit BrögerM
- 37J. MauseF
- 30Romeo AigbekaenF
- 19T. BornemannF
- 27Sebastian Brechmann KevinD
- 14C. HarenbrockM
- 2Kevin KrummeD
- 23D. SavicM
- 7N. ThierM
- 9E. WirtzF
- 18H. Al GhaddiouiF
- 25B. ZichG
Form going into Rot-Weiß Essen vs Fortuna Köln
Rot-Weiß Essen
- D3-3away to Preußen Münster9 October 2026
- D1-1Hansa Rostock20 September 2026
- W2-1away to Waldhof Mannheim16 September 2026
- W6-2Würzburger Kickers12 September 2026
Fortuna Köln
- D0-0FC Saarbrücken10 October 2026
- W3-1away to Havelse25 September 2026
- L0-2SV Wehen16 September 2026
- D2-2away to Hoffenheim II13 September 2026
What these results say
- Rot-Weiß Essen went unbeaten through these 4 matches.
- Rot-Weiß Essen scored in every one of these 4 matches.
- Rot-Weiß Essen conceded in every one of these 4 matches.
- Fortuna Köln failed to win 3 of these 4 matches.
- Fortuna Köln conceded in 3 of these 4 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
3. Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Rot-Weiß Essen | 9 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 18 | 12 | +6 | 18 |
| 15 | Fortuna Köln | 9 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 8 | 10 | -2 | 10 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Rot-Weiß Essen vs Fortuna Köln
- 13 October 2026Rot-Weiß Essen 2–0 Fortuna Köln3. Liga
- 12 July 2025Rot-Weiß Essen 5–0 Fortuna KölnFriendlies Clubs
- 16 March 2022Fortuna Köln 3–3 Rot-Weiß EssenRegionalliga - West
- 29 August 2021Rot-Weiß Essen 2–1 Fortuna KölnRegionalliga - West
- 7 March 2021Rot-Weiß Essen 2–0 Fortuna KölnRegionalliga - West
- 10 October 2020Fortuna Köln 1–1 Rot-Weiß EssenRegionalliga - West
Leading scorers: Rot-Weiß Essen and Fortuna Köln
Rot-Weiß Essen
GoalsAssists
- M. Janssen10
Fortuna Köln
No player in 3. Liga's leading scorers — 8 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Expected against actual
Pre-match the model expected 1.47 goals for Rot-Weiß Essen and 0.66 for Fortuna Köln; the game produced 2 and 0.
Goals
Scorers, in order: Marek Janssen 20' (Rot-Weiß Essen), Jaka Cuber Potocnik 82' (Rot-Weiß Essen).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,819 correct results out of 3,801 settled predictions (48%), with 383 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Rot-Weiß Essen the highest probability at 52%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.47 expected goals for Rot-Weiß Essen against 0.66 for Fortuna Köln. Rot-Weiß Essen's attack/defence rating is 0.61/1.48 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.37/1.48 for Fortuna Köln.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.