FC Saarbrücken
vs
MSV Duisburg
3. Liga prediction & result
Final score: FC Saarbrücken 2-4 MSV Duisburg.
Before kick-off the model made it 34% FC Saarbrücken, 27% draw, 39% MSV Duisburg — fair odds of 2.94, 3.70 and 2.56. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
Expected goals: FC Saarbrücken 1.45, MSV Duisburg 1.58.
Both teams to score: 61%. Over 2.5 goals: 58%, under 2.5: 42%.
Model confidence: Low.
Published · updated
More 3. Liga predictions
Model insights: FC Saarbrücken vs MSV Duisburg
Has the model earned this number?
It puts MSV Duisburg at 39% here. Across 3,801 settled matches (as of 16 October 2026), 2,969 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.5% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.6%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 6 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — FC Saarbrücken vs MSV Duisburg
Line-ups
- 1M. BignettiG
- 42P. FahrnerD
- 21M. CvjetinovićD
- 4S. VoetD
- 28N. BretschneiderD
- 5Daniel GleiberM
- 14Z. ShuaibM
- 31K. MeiselM
- 20F. PickM
- 22K. CaliskanerF
- 29A. StaffF
- 8Gökdeniz GürpüzF
- 15A. KamaraM
- 10C. KühlwetterF
- 16Lee Seung-JoonM
- 7C. RizzutoD
- 19S. VasiliadisM
- 3Anton BäuerleD
- 9K. BrünkerF
- 33K. BrollG
- 1M. BrauneG
- 29J. BitterD
- 5T. FlecksteinD
- 40B. SchlickeD
- 20N. JessenM
- 8A. CasarM
- 6R. BulićM
- 3F. ChristensenM
- 14C. NoßM
- 11D. KotherM
- 9L. LobingerF
- 37P. SussekM
- 17M. BesuschkowM
- 27C. CoşkunD
- 43R. HaddouD
- 26F. KrügerF
- 39P. RemmertF
- 19Ramien SafiF
- 33T. StahlG
Form going into FC Saarbrücken vs MSV Duisburg
FC Saarbrücken
- D0-0away to Fortuna Köln10 October 2026
- W2-1SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach19 September 2026
- D3-3away to Preußen Münster16 September 2026
- L0-1FC Ingolstadt 0412 September 2026
MSV Duisburg
- W3-2Hoffenheim II10 October 2026
- W4-1away to SV Wehen20 September 2026
- W2-1Havelse15 September 2026
- L1-2away to Fortuna Düsseldorf12 September 2026
What these results say
- FC Saarbrücken failed to win 3 of these 4 matches.
- FC Saarbrücken conceded in 3 of these 4 matches.
- MSV Duisburg scored in every one of these 4 matches.
- MSV Duisburg conceded in every one of these 4 matches.
- Every one of these 4 matches for MSV Duisburg had three goals or more.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
3. Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | FC Saarbrücken | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 21 | 16 | +5 | 14 |
| 1 | MSV Duisburg | 9 | 8 | 0 | 1 | 26 | 11 | +15 | 24 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: FC Saarbrücken vs MSV Duisburg
- 13 October 2026FC Saarbrücken 2–4 MSV Duisburg3. Liga
- 8 March 2026MSV Duisburg 4–2 FC Saarbrücken3. Liga
- 30 September 2025FC Saarbrücken 0–0 MSV Duisburg3. Liga
- 16 March 2024MSV Duisburg 2–0 FC Saarbrücken3. Liga
- 29 November 2023FC Saarbrücken 0–0 MSV Duisburg3. Liga
- 21 May 2023MSV Duisburg 2–2 FC Saarbrücken3. Liga
Leading scorers: FC Saarbrücken and MSV Duisburg
FC Saarbrücken
No player in 3. Liga's leading scorers — 21 league goals as a side.
MSV Duisburg
GoalsAssists
- P. Remmert30
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Expected against actual
Pre-match the model expected 1.45 goals for FC Saarbrücken and 1.58 for MSV Duisburg; the game produced 2 and 4.
A gap that size between expected and actual goals is normal in a single match — it is the reason we publish probabilities rather than predictions, and why the record below is measured over hundreds of games rather than one.
Goals
Scorers, in order: Lex-Tyger Lobinger 29' (MSV Duisburg), Tobias Fleckstein 34' (MSV Duisburg), Rasim Bulic 42' (MSV Duisburg), Kai Brünker 50' (FC Saarbrücken), Florian Krüger 81' (MSV Duisburg), Gokdeniz Gurpuz 90' (FC Saarbrücken).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,819 correct results out of 3,801 settled predictions (48%), with 383 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives MSV Duisburg the highest probability at 39%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.45 expected goals for FC Saarbrücken against 1.58 for MSV Duisburg. FC Saarbrücken's attack/defence rating is 0.57/1.87 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.7/1.56 for MSV Duisburg.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.