Regular Season - 9 · 13 October 2026, 17:00 UTC

Havelse vs Würzburger Kickers 3. Liga prediction & result

Eilenriedestadion, Hannover
Referee: Luca Sambill
Full time2 – 2

Final score: Havelse 2-2 Würzburger Kickers.

Before kick-off the model made it 40% Havelse, 26% draw, 34% Würzburger Kickers — fair odds of 2.50, 3.85 and 2.94. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

Expected goals: Havelse 1.71, Würzburger Kickers 1.53.

Both teams to score: 65%. Over 2.5 goals: 63%, under 2.5: 37%.

Model confidence: Medium.

Published · updated

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Model insights: Havelse vs Würzburger Kickers

65%
Both teams to score
63%
Over 2.5 goals
37%
Under 2.5 goals
Most likely scorelines1-1 11%2-1 9%1-2 8%

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Havelse at 40% here. Across 3,801 settled matches (as of 16 October 2026), 1,771 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

⚽Kwasi Okyere Wriedtassist: Robin Velasco
24'
27'
Ebrahim Farahnak
Kwasi Okyere Wriedt
33'
35'
⚽Nathan De Medina (OG)
35'
38'
Louis Breunig
45'
🔁Franck evinaout: L. Omore
62'
🔁David Kinsombiout: Jermain Nischalke
62'
🔁Thomas Kastanarasout: Tim·Kraus
🔁Eryk Artur Grzywaczout: Eric Voufack
63'
66'
Jermain Nischalke
Kevin Schumacher
68'
🔁Yusuf Wardakout: Alexander Guiddir
68'
🔁Kwasi Okyere Wriedtout: Lorenzo Paldino
68'
Yannick mausehund
69'
70'
⚽Tarsis Bonga (pen)
🔁Robin Velascoout: Marc Richter
77'
77'
🔁Luke Hemmerichout: Pedro Eliot Narciso Muteba
Lorenzo Paldino
90+1'
90+2'
⚽Jermain Nischalke (pen)
90+3'
🔁Xaver Kiefersauerout: N. Embaye

Match stats — Havelse vs Würzburger Kickers

53%Possession47%
0On target0

Line-ups

Havelse 5-3-2
  • 1T. OpitzG
  • 22L. SommerD
  • 15D. DuahD
  • 8J. BergerD
  • 24Y. MausehundD
  • 10K. SchumacherD
  • 28R. VelascoM
  • 14Y. WardakM
  • 33J. TugbenyoM
  • 12Eryk Artur GrzywaczF
  • 11K. Okyere WriedtF
Substitutes
  • 23R. MüllerM
  • 21Irichad BehrensD
  • 30T. FriedrichD
  • 20Alexander GuiddirF
  • 3M. LambyD
  • 9L. PaldinoF
  • 7M. RichterM
  • 19E. VoufackD
  • 25Fynn Ole WolterG
Coach: S. Ferchichi
Würzburger Kickers 4-4-2
  • 33M. RajkovačićG
  • 21L. HemmerichD
  • 16L. BreunigD
  • 28E. FarahnakD
  • 4N. De MedinaD
  • 37I. FranjićM
  • 27Xaver KiefersauerM
  • 8D. KinsombiM
  • 18F. EvinaM
  • 30T. BongaF
  • 19T. KastanarasF
Substitutes
  • 17L. OmoreF
  • 13P. OchsM
  • 9Jermain NischalkeF
  • 7E. MutebaF
  • 31T. KrausM
  • 34Burak KarakayaD
  • 1Johann HipperG
  • 6Namrud EmbayeM
  • 5L. EberleD
Coach: M. Schiele

Form going into Havelse vs Würzburger Kickers

Havelse

  • L0-5away to SSV Jahn Regensburg10 October 2026
  • L1-3Fortuna Köln25 September 2026
  • L1-2away to MSV Duisburg15 September 2026
  • D2-2SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach12 September 2026

Würzburger Kickers

  • L0-2Hansa Rostock10 October 2026
  • L1-2away to Verl18 September 2026
  • W1-0Alemannia Aachen15 September 2026
  • L2-6away to Rot-Weiß Essen12 September 2026

What these results say

  • Havelse did not win any of these 4 matches.
  • Havelse conceded in every one of these 4 matches.
  • Every one of these 4 matches for Havelse had three goals or more.
  • Würzburger Kickers failed to win 3 of these 4 matches.
  • Würzburger Kickers scored in 3 of these 4 matches.
  • Würzburger Kickers conceded in 3 of these 4 matches.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.

3. Liga table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
20Havelse91261222-105
19Würzburger Kickers92251319-68

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Havelse vs Würzburger Kickers

  • 13 October 2026Havelse 2–2 Würzburger Kickers3. Liga
  • 20 February 2022Havelse 1–3 FC Wurzburger Kickers3. Liga
  • 11 September 2021FC Wurzburger Kickers 0–0 Havelse3. Liga

Expected against actual

Pre-match the model expected 1.71 goals for Havelse and 1.53 for Würzburger Kickers; the game produced 2 and 2.

Goals

Scorers, in order: Kwasi Okyere Wriedt 24' (Havelse), Nathan De Medina 35' (Havelse), Tarsis Bonga 70' (Würzburger Kickers), Jermain Nischalke 90' (Würzburger Kickers).

How this was produced

Publicly tracked record so far: 1,819 correct results out of 3,801 settled predictions (48%), with 383 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.

Full method: how the model works.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.

Team comparison

Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.

Why the model favours this side

The model gives Havelse the highest probability at 40%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.71 expected goals for Havelse against 1.53 for Würzburger Kickers. Havelse's attack/defence rating is 0.49/2.64 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.48/2.14 for Würzburger Kickers.