Pendikspor
vs
Vanspor FK
1. Lig prediction & result
Final score: Pendikspor 1-2 Vanspor FK.
Before kick-off the model made it 47% Pendikspor, 27% draw, 26% Vanspor FK — fair odds of 2.13, 3.70 and 3.85. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Pendikspor 1.67, Vanspor FK 1.09.
Both teams to score: 54%. Over 2.5 goals: 52%, under 2.5: 48%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Published · updated
More TFF 1. Lig predictions
Model insights: Pendikspor vs Vanspor FK
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Pendikspor at 47% here. Across 3,801 settled matches (as of 16 October 2026), 1,771 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Pendikspor vs Vanspor FK
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 97U. YuvakuranG
- 23E. GökçeD
- 5B. SülüngözD
- 2T. İnceD
- 66F. DoğanD
- 41M. ÖzdemirM
- 60B. KaradenizM
- 14H. YeşilM
- 28E. PekdemirM
- 7E. BaşsanM
- 9J. Clarke-HarrisF
- 34ThuramF
- 19B. DemiroğluF
- 93Burak GültekinM
- 88D. HreljaF
- 99M. KipritF
- 30E. KoyuncuG
- 50Mirko ŠušakF
- 20Y. SönmezM
- 61O. ÃakıroÄluF
- 1A. UysalG
- 77C. HanalpD
- 5S. OsmanoğluD
- 13N. OularéD
- 61F. GençD
- 11M. ManişM
- 41M. ÖzcanM
- 58Ö. YiğiterM
- 27J. BardhiF
- 9Álvaro de OliveiraF
- 15T. YenneF
- 7I. AlhaftF
- 30R. ŽivkovićF
- 35B. İşçilerD
- 25F. ÖzhanF
- 17İlkan SeverF
- 2K. SevenD
- 10O. KökçüF
- 8M. KhanM
- 22A. DamluG
Form going into Pendikspor vs Vanspor FK
Pendikspor
- L1-4away to Sivasspor9 October 2026
- D1-1Bodrum FK20 September 2026
- D1-1away to Boluspor12 September 2026
- W1-0Ümraniyespor5 September 2026
Vanspor FK
- L0-2Bandırmaspor9 October 2026
- L0-3away to Antalyaspor20 September 2026
- D1-1Keçiörengücü12 September 2026
- D2-2away to Muğlaspor6 September 2026
What these results say
- Pendikspor scored in every one of these 4 matches.
- Pendikspor failed to win 3 of these 4 matches.
- Pendikspor conceded in 3 of these 4 matches.
- Vanspor FK did not win any of these 4 matches.
- Vanspor FK conceded in every one of these 4 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
1. Lig table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | Pendikspor | 10 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 12 | 19 | -7 | 10 |
| 18 | Vanspor FK | 10 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 10 | 20 | -10 | 7 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Pendikspor vs Vanspor FK
- 13 October 2026Pendikspor 1–2 Vanspor FK1. Lig
- 6 March 2026Pendikspor 1–1 Vanspor FK1. Lig
- 18 October 2025Vanspor FK 1–1 Pendikspor1. Lig
- 18 March 2021Vanspor FK 2–0 Pendikspor2. Lig
- 14 November 2020Pendikspor 3–5 Vanspor FK2. Lig
Leading scorers: Pendikspor and Vanspor FK
Pendikspor
GoalsAssists
- Thuram31
Vanspor FK
GoalsAssists
- J. Bardhi40
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Expected against actual
Pre-match the model expected 1.67 goals for Pendikspor and 1.09 for Vanspor FK; the game produced 1 and 2.
Goals
Scorers, in order: Emrah Başsan 49' (Pendikspor), Jurgen Bardhi 60' (Vanspor FK), Muhammed Furkan Özhan 88' (Vanspor FK).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,819 correct results out of 3,801 settled predictions (48%), with 383 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Pendikspor the highest probability at 47%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.67 expected goals for Pendikspor against 1.09 for Vanspor FK. Pendikspor's attack/defence rating is 0.53/1.77 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.51/1.94 for Vanspor FK.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.