Antalyaspor
vs
Kayserispor
1. Lig prediction & result
Final score: Antalyaspor 0-4 Kayserispor.
Before kick-off the model made it 46% Antalyaspor, 28% draw, 26% Kayserispor — fair odds of 2.17, 3.57 and 3.85. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Antalyaspor 1.57, Kayserispor 1.06.
Both teams to score: 52%. Over 2.5 goals: 49%, under 2.5: 51%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Published · updated
More TFF 1. Lig predictions
Model insights: Antalyaspor vs Kayserispor
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Antalyaspor at 46% here. Across 3,801 settled matches (as of 16 October 2026), 1,771 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Antalyaspor vs Kayserispor
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 77F. PseftisG
- 7B. BalcıD
- 4Bugra Tivsiz EnsarD
- 19S. KarakoçD
- 11G. VuralD
- 6S. DikmenM
- 14PedrinhoM
- 17E. YeşilyurtM
- 22S. van de StreekM
- 70D. SinikM
- 9Nuno da CostaF
- 97M. ŞimşekM
- 15F. NzabaD
- 44Ismail ChehaimaM
- 35J. CeesayM
- 5Ö. BeyazM
- 89V. SarıD
- 23A. SağatF
- 18S. YalçınM
- 21A. YiğiterG
- 35G. DeğirmenciG
- 7M. UçarD
- 5K. CihanD
- 3J. TabidzeD
- 17M. GöçkanD
- 8S. KurtM
- 61G. SağlamM
- 10B. KeserM
- 28Mamadi CamaráM
- 97T. SeferiM
- 27D. MorenoF
- 20J. BrenetD
- 88M. DulcaM
- 16Deniz Eren DonmezerG
- 9F. HasaniF
- 19M. HayvaliD
- 38Ataol KarapinarM
- 11E. KemaloğluM
- 99T. SarıarslanF
- 71O. ÇağlayanF
Form going into Antalyaspor vs Kayserispor
Antalyaspor
- W1-0away to Boluspor10 October 2026
- W3-0Vanspor FK20 September 2026
- W2-1away to Ümraniyespor12 September 2026
- L1-2Sivasspor6 September 2026
Kayserispor
- W3-2Manisa F.K.10 October 2026
- W1-0away to Mardin 196920 September 2026
- W4-0İstanbulspor14 September 2026
- W3-0away to Esenler Erokspor7 September 2026
What these results say
- Antalyaspor scored in every one of these 4 matches.
- Antalyaspor won 3 of these 4 matches.
- 3 of these 4 matches for Antalyaspor had three goals or more.
- Kayserispor won every one of these 4 matches.
- Kayserispor scored in every one of these 4 matches.
- Kayserispor kept a clean sheet in 3 of these 4 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
1. Lig table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Antalyaspor | 10 | 5 | 0 | 5 | 15 | 17 | -2 | 15 |
| 1 | Kayserispor | 10 | 8 | 1 | 1 | 22 | 5 | +17 | 25 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Antalyaspor vs Kayserispor
- 22 February 2026Kayserispor 1–0 AntalyasporSüper Lig
- 20 September 2025Antalyaspor 1–1 KayserisporSüper Lig
- 12 May 2025Kayserispor 3–1 AntalyasporSüper Lig
- 15 December 2024Antalyaspor 2–0 KayserisporSüper Lig
- 29 January 2024Kayserispor 1–1 AntalyasporSüper Lig
- 2 September 2023Antalyaspor 1–1 KayserisporSüper Lig
Leading scorers: Antalyaspor and Kayserispor
Antalyaspor
GoalsAssists
- S. van de Streek32
Kayserispor
GoalsAssists
- T. Seferi91
- D. Moreno70
- B. Keser32
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Expected against actual
Pre-match the model expected 1.57 goals for Antalyaspor and 1.06 for Kayserispor; the game produced 0 and 4.
Goals
Scorers, in order: Daniel Moreno 2' (Kayserispor), Taulant Seferi 24' (Kayserispor), Manadi Camara 37' (Kayserispor), Taulant Seferi 53' (Kayserispor).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,819 correct results out of 3,801 settled predictions (48%), with 383 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Antalyaspor the highest probability at 46%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.57 expected goals for Antalyaspor against 1.06 for Kayserispor. Antalyaspor's attack/defence rating is 0.67/1.38 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.64/1.44 for Kayserispor.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.