Keçiörengücü
vs
Iğdır FK
1. Lig prediction & result
Final score: Keçiörengücü 0-0 Iğdır FK.
Before kick-off the model made it 49% Keçiörengücü, 27% draw, 24% Iğdır FK — fair odds of 2.04, 3.70 and 4.17. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Keçiörengücü 1.62, Iğdır FK 0.95.
Both teams to score: 50%. Over 2.5 goals: 47%, under 2.5: 53%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Published · updated
More TFF 1. Lig predictions
Model insights: Keçiörengücü vs Iğdır FK
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Keçiörengücü at 49% here. Across 3,801 settled matches (as of 16 October 2026), 1,771 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Keçiörengücü vs Iğdır FK
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1M. ErdoğanG
- 12M. KeskinD
- 3Wellington NascimentoD
- 4A. ÇelikD
- 37D. AksuD
- 8I. KaraogulM
- 14İ. AkdağM
- 7O. RoshiM
- 20Alcídio RaiceM
- 21F. EzehM
- 55M. DioufF
- 16Oğuzhan AyaydınM
- 45Herculano NabianF
- 9Ö. DemirelF
- 6E. DeveliM
- 77M. FofanaF
- 33S. LuşD
- 10JeffersonM
- 18E. SatılmışG
- 19Enes YilmazM
- 29J. SzumskiG
- 39H. KarabeyD
- 5A. ÖztürkD
- 18L. KouagbaD
- 28S. GönülD
- 7M. CamaraM
- 21D. ErdoğanM
- 24G. CrociataM
- 17S. GürlerM
- 58G. KayaF
- 9A. ÇolakF
- 19Ö. ÖzcanF
- 4A. ÃztürkD
- 6D. ŞenyurtM
- 11Malik YilmazF
- 44L. CaliskanM
- 1T. TepeG
- 22A. SelviD
- 10L. BacunaM
- 61S. AsanD
Form going into Keçiörengücü vs Iğdır FK
Keçiörengücü
- W2-0away to Bodrum FK9 October 2026
- D1-1Sivasspor19 September 2026
- D1-1away to Vanspor FK12 September 2026
- W3-0Sarıyer5 September 2026
Iğdır FK
- W2-1Batman Petrolspor10 October 2026
- D2-2away to Muğlaspor18 September 2026
- W1-0Mardin 196913 September 2026
- W2-1away to İstanbulspor7 September 2026
What these results say
- Keçiörengücü went unbeaten through these 4 matches.
- Keçiörengücü scored in every one of these 4 matches.
- 3 of these 4 matches for Keçiörengücü had two goals or fewer.
- Iğdır FK went unbeaten through these 4 matches.
- Iğdır FK scored in every one of these 4 matches.
- Iğdır FK won 3 of these 4 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
1. Lig table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Keçiörengücü | 10 | 4 | 5 | 1 | 19 | 10 | +9 | 17 |
| 2 | Iğdır FK | 10 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 14 | 8 | +6 | 20 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Keçiörengücü vs Iğdır FK
- 8 April 2026Iğdır FK 0–1 Keçiörengücü1. Lig
- 29 November 2025Keçiörengücü 1–2 Iğdır FK1. Lig
- 16 February 2025Iğdır FK 3–0 Keçiörengücü1. Lig
- 22 September 2024Keçiörengücü 2–0 Iğdır FK1. Lig
Leading scorers: Keçiörengücü and Iğdır FK
Keçiörengücü
GoalsAssists
- M. Diouf52
- F. Ezeh33
Iğdır FK
No player in 1. Lig's leading scorers — 14 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Written before kick-off and left as it stood — the reading below is the model's pre-match case, not a view formed after the result.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Keçiörengücü carry a model rating of 6.53 against 6.42 for Iğdır FK. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.62 goals for Keçiörengücü and 0.95 for Iğdır FK. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Keçiörengücü rate 0.72 in attack and 1.36 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Iğdır FK rate 0.58 and 1.38.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Iğdır FK, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Keçiörengücü a 9.8% chance of the title and Iğdır FK 5.8%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,819 correct results out of 3,801 settled predictions (48%), with 383 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Keçiörengücü the highest probability at 49%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.62 expected goals for Keçiörengücü against 0.95 for Iğdır FK. Keçiörengücü's attack/defence rating is 0.72/1.36 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.58/1.38 for Iğdır FK.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.