İstanbulspor
vs
Antalyaspor
1. Lig prediction
Our model says: İstanbulspor 1–2 Antalyaspor
The model makes it 29% İstanbulspor, 26% draw, 45% Antalyaspor — fair odds of 3.45, 3.85 and 2.22. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
Expected goals: İstanbulspor 1.26, Antalyaspor 1.70.
Both teams to score: 59%. Over 2.5 goals: 57%, under 2.5: 43%.
Model confidence: Medium.
One-sided: Antalyaspor are clearly the stronger team on the model's ratings. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 68%, 20% were drawn and the underdog won 12%.
Published · updated
Key facts
- İstanbulspor are 19th on 5 points from 10 games; Antalyaspor are 8th on 15 points from 10 games — 1. Lig.
- İstanbulspor have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 2-4 defeat away to Batman Petrolspor.
- Antalyaspor have won 3 of their last 5 games, most recently a 0-4 defeat at home to Kayserispor.
- Last 5 meetings: Antalyaspor 2 wins to 0, 3 draws; the most recent, 17 February 2024, ended Antalyaspor 2–2 İstanbulspor.
More TFF 1. Lig predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: İstanbulspor vs Antalyaspor
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Antalyaspor at 45% here. Across 3,801 settled matches (as of 16 October 2026), 1,771 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into İstanbulspor vs Antalyaspor
İstanbulspor
- L2-4away to Batman Petrolspor14 October 2026
- L0-1Esenler Erokspor10 October 2026
- W1-0away to Manisa F.K.20 September 2026
- L0-4away to Kayserispor14 September 2026
- L1-2Iğdır FK7 September 2026
Antalyaspor
- L0-4Kayserispor14 October 2026
- W1-0away to Boluspor10 October 2026
- W3-0Vanspor FK20 September 2026
- W2-1away to Ümraniyespor12 September 2026
- L1-2Sivasspor6 September 2026
What these results say
- İstanbulspor failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- İstanbulspor conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Antalyaspor scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Antalyaspor had three goals or more.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
1. Lig table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 | İstanbulspor | 10 | 1 | 2 | 7 | 9 | 24 | -15 | 5 |
| 8 | Antalyaspor | 10 | 5 | 0 | 5 | 15 | 17 | -2 | 15 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
İstanbulspor
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 53% today
Antalyaspor
Chance to finish in the top four · 25% today
From our 1. Lig season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. Each figure is that side's chance once this match ends in a win, a draw or a defeat for it, with every other match still left to the model. Positions in the table, not competition rules: what a place is worth differs from league to league.
Head-to-head: İstanbulspor vs Antalyaspor
- 17 February 2024Antalyaspor 2–2 İstanbulsporSüper Lig
- 30 September 2023İstanbulspor 1–2 AntalyasporSüper Lig
- 3 August 2023İstanbulspor 1–1 AntalyasporFriendlies Clubs
- 19 April 2023İstanbulspor 3–3 AntalyasporSüper Lig
- 21 October 2022Antalyaspor 2–1 İstanbulsporSüper Lig
Leading scorers: İstanbulspor and Antalyaspor
İstanbulspor
GoalsAssists
- Alieu Cham31
Antalyaspor
GoalsAssists
- S. van de Streek32
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
İstanbulspor carry a model rating of 6.19 against 6.49 for Antalyaspor. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.26 goals for İstanbulspor and 1.70 for Antalyaspor. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
İstanbulspor rate 0.56 in attack and 2.11 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Antalyaspor rate 0.67 and 1.38.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives İstanbulspor a 0% chance of the title and Antalyaspor 2.8%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,819 correct results out of 3,801 settled predictions (48%), with 383 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Antalyaspor the highest probability at 45%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.26 expected goals for İstanbulspor against 1.70 for Antalyaspor. İstanbulspor's attack/defence rating is 0.56/2.11 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.67/1.38 for Antalyaspor.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
İstanbulspor at home · Antalyaspor away
League matches only, 1. Lig, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All 1. Lig matches this season: İstanbulspor 10, Antalyaspor 10.
Antalyaspor score most often in the 61–75 minute window (5 goals); İstanbulspor have let in 1 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
İstanbulspor
- at Muğlaspor24 Oct · 1. Ligwin 25%
- vs Mardin 19691 Nov · 1. Ligwin 26%
- at Pendikspor7 Nov · 1. Ligwin 26%
- vs Keçiörengücü21 Nov · 1. Ligwin 27%
- at Sarıyer29 Nov · 1. Ligwin 24%
Antalyaspor
- vs Bodrum FK25 Oct · 1. Ligwin 43%
- at Iğdır FK1 Nov · 1. Ligwin 32%
- vs Bursaspor6 Nov · 1. Ligwin 36%
- at Esenler Erokspor22 Nov · 1. Ligwin 31%
- vs Fatih Karagümrük29 Nov · 1. Ligwin 42%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.