Kalamata
vs
OFI
Super League 1 prediction
Our model says: Kalamata 2–1 OFI
The model makes it 46% Kalamata, 26% draw, 28% OFI — fair odds of 2.17, 3.85 and 3.57. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Kalamata 1.73, OFI 1.24.
Both teams to score: 59%. Over 2.5 goals: 57%, under 2.5: 43%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published · updated
Key facts
- Kalamata are 10th on 7 points from 6 games; OFI are 6th on 10 points from 6 games — Super League 1.
- Kalamata have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 3-1 win away to PAOK.
- OFI have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 0-3 defeat away to AEK Athens FC.
More Greek Super League predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Kalamata vs OFI
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Kalamata at 46% here. Across 3,801 settled matches (as of 16 October 2026), 1,771 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Kalamata vs OFI
Kalamata
- W3-1away to PAOK12 October 2026
- L0-1Panathinaikos20 September 2026
- W3-1Volos NFC13 September 2026
- D1-1away to Atromitos6 September 2026
- L0-2away to Panetolikos29 August 2026
OFI
- L0-3away to AEK Athens FC10 October 2026
- D2-2Asteras Tripolis20 September 2026
- W1-0away to Olympiakos Piraeus12 September 2026
- W2-0Kifisia6 September 2026
- L1-2away to Aris Thessalonikis30 August 2026
What these results say
- Kalamata conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- OFI scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Super League 1 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Kalamata | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 9 | 9 | 0 | 7 |
| 6 | OFI | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 8 | 7 | +1 | 10 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Kalamata
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 7% today
OFI
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 10% today
From our Super League 1 season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. Each figure is that side's chance once this match ends in a win, a draw or a defeat for it, with every other match still left to the model. Positions in the table, not competition rules: what a place is worth differs from league to league.
Leading scorers: Kalamata and OFI
Kalamata
GoalsAssists
- K. Vargas30
- E. Hamza20
OFI
GoalsAssists
- K. Kodro20
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Kalamata carry a model rating of 6.63 against 6.57 for OFI. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.73 goals for Kalamata and 1.24 for OFI. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Kalamata rate 0.84 in attack and 1.30 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; OFI rate 0.80 and 1.42.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour OFI, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Kalamata a 0.2% chance of the title and OFI 0.1%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,819 correct results out of 3,801 settled predictions (48%), with 383 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Kalamata the highest probability at 46%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.73 expected goals for Kalamata against 1.24 for OFI. Kalamata's attack/defence rating is 0.84/1.3 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.8/1.42 for OFI.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Kalamata at home · OFI away
League matches only, Super League 1, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Super League 1 matches this season: Kalamata 6, OFI 6.
Kalamata score most often in the 46–60 minute window (3 goals); OFI have let in 1 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
Kalamata
- at Olympiakos Piraeus25 Oct · Super League 1win 18%
- vs Iraklis 19082 Nov · Super League 1win 41%
- at Asteras Tripolis8 Nov · Super League 1win 39%
- vs AEK Athens FC21 Nov · Super League 1win 18%
- at Kifisia28 Nov · Super League 1win 37%
OFI
- vs Bayer Leverkusen22 Oct · UEFA Europa Leaguewin 17%
- vs PAOK25 Oct · Super League 1win 23%
- at Panetolikos1 Nov · Super League 1win 36%
- at Hapoel Beer Sheva5 Nov · UEFA Europa Leaguewin 25%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.