Kifisia vs Aris Thessalonikis Super League 1 prediction

Two sides the ratings cannot separate

Kifisia carry a model rating of 6.51 against 6.57 for Aris Thessalonikis. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.

A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.

What the model expects

Under the hood the model expects 1.17 goals for Kifisia and 1.10 for Aris Thessalonikis. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.

Kifisia rate 0.62 in attack and 1.25 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Aris Thessalonikis rate 0.74 and 1.30.

Where the model differs from the table

The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Aris Thessalonikis, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.

Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Kifisia a 0% chance of the title and Aris Thessalonikis 0.1%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.

How this was produced

Publicly tracked record so far: 1,819 correct results out of 3,801 settled predictions (48%), with 383 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.

Full method: how the model works.

From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.