PAOK
vs
Iraklis 1908
Super League 1 prediction
Our model says: PAOK 1–0 Iraklis 1908
The model makes it 58% PAOK, 25% draw, 17% Iraklis 1908 — fair odds of 1.72, 4.00 and 5.88. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0 (13%).
Expected goals: PAOK 1.87, Iraklis 1908 0.80.
Both teams to score: 47%. Over 2.5 goals: 50%, under 2.5: 50%.
Model confidence: High.
One-sided: PAOK are clearly the stronger team on the model's ratings. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 68%, 20% were drawn and the underdog won 12%.
Published · updated
Key facts
- PAOK are 4th on 12 points from 6 games; Iraklis 1908 are 7th on 9 points from 6 games — Super League 1.
- PAOK have won 3 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-3 defeat at home to Kalamata.
- Iraklis 1908 are unbeaten in their last 5 games (2 won), most recently a 2-0 win at home to Levadiakos.
More Greek Super League predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: PAOK vs Iraklis 1908
Has the model earned this number?
It puts PAOK at 58% here. Across 3,801 settled matches (as of 16 October 2026), 907 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 55.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.5%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into PAOK vs Iraklis 1908
PAOK
- L1-3Kalamata12 October 2026
- W3-1away to Panetolikos20 September 2026
- W2-0Aris Thessalonikis13 September 2026
- L1-3away to Panathinaikos6 September 2026
- W2-1away to Atromitos30 August 2026
Iraklis 1908
- W2-0Levadiakos11 October 2026
- D0-0away to Aris Thessalonikis19 September 2026
- D1-1Atromitos12 September 2026
- W2-0away to Asteras Tripolis7 September 2026
- D1-1away to Volos NFC29 August 2026
What these results say
- PAOK scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- PAOK conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for PAOK had three goals or more.
- Iraklis 1908 went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- Every one of these 5 matches for Iraklis 1908 had two goals or fewer.
- Iraklis 1908 scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Super League 1 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | PAOK | 6 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 13 | 8 | +5 | 12 |
| 7 | Iraklis 1908 | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 6 | 6 | 0 | 9 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
PAOK
Chance to finish in the top four · 85% today
Iraklis 1908
Chance to finish in the top four · 6% today
From our Super League 1 season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. Each figure is that side's chance once this match ends in a win, a draw or a defeat for it, with every other match still left to the model. Positions in the table, not competition rules: what a place is worth differs from league to league.
Leading scorers: PAOK and Iraklis 1908
PAOK
GoalsAssists
- D. Pelkas30
- C. Ndiaye30
Iraklis 1908
No player in Super League 1's leading scorers — 6 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
PAOK carry a model rating of 6.94 against 6.62 for Iraklis 1908. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.87 goals for PAOK and 0.80 for Iraklis 1908. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
PAOK rate 1.19 in attack and 1.01 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Iraklis 1908 rate 0.66 and 1.08.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives PAOK a 10.9% chance of the title and Iraklis 1908 0%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,819 correct results out of 3,801 settled predictions (48%), with 383 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives PAOK the highest probability at 58%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.87 expected goals for PAOK against 0.80 for Iraklis 1908. PAOK's attack/defence rating is 1.19/1.01 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.66/1.08 for Iraklis 1908.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
PAOK at home · Iraklis 1908 away
League matches only, Super League 1, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Position by match
PAOKIraklis 1908
PAOK are 4th after 6 Super League 1 matches (between 1st and 5th so far); Iraklis 1908 are 7th after 6 (between 7th and 13th). Rebuilt from the season's results after each side's matches (x-axis: that side's match number); ties split on goal difference, then goals scored. Points deductions (Volos NFC −2) count from the first match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Super League 1 matches this season: PAOK 6, Iraklis 1908 6.
PAOK score most often in the 31–45 minute window (8 goals); Iraklis 1908 have let in 0 there.
Iraklis 1908 score most often in the 61–75 minute window (4 goals); PAOK have let in 1 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
PAOK
- at OFI25 Oct · Super League 1win 53%
- vs Asteras Tripolis1 Nov · Super League 1win 67%
- at Olympiakos Piraeus8 Nov · Super League 1win 29%
- vs Kifisia22 Nov · Super League 1win 64%
- at AEK Athens FC29 Nov · Super League 1win 22%
Iraklis 1908
- vs Kifisia24 Oct · Super League 1win 43%
- at Kalamata2 Nov · Super League 1win 29%
- vs Panathinaikos8 Nov · Super League 1win 22%
- at Olympiakos Piraeus22 Nov · Super League 1win 17%
- vs Panetolikos28 Nov · Super League 1win 45%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.