Vanspor FK
vs
Ümraniyespor
1. Lig prediction
Our model says: Vanspor FK 1–0 Ümraniyespor
The model makes it 39% Vanspor FK, 29% draw, 32% Ümraniyespor — fair odds of 2.56, 3.45 and 3.13. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Vanspor FK 1.30, Ümraniyespor 1.12.
Both teams to score: 50%. Over 2.5 goals: 44%, under 2.5: 56%.
Model confidence: Low.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published · updated
Key facts
- Vanspor FK are 18th on 7 points from 10 games; Ümraniyespor are 17th on 7 points from 9 games — 1. Lig.
- Vanspor FK have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 2-1 win away to Pendikspor.
- Ümraniyespor have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-1 draw at home to Sarıyer.
- Last 4 meetings: Ümraniyespor 3 wins to 1, 0 draws; the most recent, 19 April 2026, ended Ümraniyespor 1–2 Vanspor FK.
More TFF 1. Lig predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Vanspor FK vs Ümraniyespor
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Vanspor FK at 39% here. Across 3,801 settled matches (as of 16 October 2026), 2,969 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.5% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.6%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Vanspor FK vs Ümraniyespor
Vanspor FK
- W2-1away to Pendikspor13 October 2026
- L0-2Bandırmaspor9 October 2026
- L0-3away to Antalyaspor20 September 2026
- D1-1Keçiörengücü12 September 2026
- D2-2away to Muğlaspor6 September 2026
Ümraniyespor
- D1-1Sarıyer9 October 2026
- W1-0away to Bandırmaspor18 September 2026
- L1-2Antalyaspor12 September 2026
- L0-1away to Pendikspor5 September 2026
- L0-1Muğlaspor1 September 2026
What these results say
- Vanspor FK conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Vanspor FK failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Ümraniyespor failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Ümraniyespor conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Ümraniyespor had two goals or fewer.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
1. Lig table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 | Vanspor FK | 10 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 10 | 20 | -10 | 7 |
| 17 | Ümraniyespor | 9 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 7 | 10 | -3 | 7 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Vanspor FK
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 51% today
Ümraniyespor
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 26% today
From our 1. Lig season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. Each figure is that side's chance once this match ends in a win, a draw or a defeat for it, with every other match still left to the model. Positions in the table, not competition rules: what a place is worth differs from league to league.
Head-to-head: Vanspor FK vs Ümraniyespor
- 19 April 2026Ümraniyespor 1–2 Vanspor FK1. Lig
- 14 December 2025Vanspor FK 0–1 Ümraniyespor1. Lig
- 25 March 2012Ümraniyespor 2–1 Vanspor FK3. Lig - Group 1
- 22 December 2011Vanspor FK 0–1 Ümraniyespor3. Lig - Group 1
Leading scorers: Vanspor FK and Ümraniyespor
Vanspor FK
GoalsAssists
- J. Bardhi40
Ümraniyespor
No player in 1. Lig's leading scorers — 7 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Vanspor FK carry a model rating of 6.18 against 6.27 for Ümraniyespor. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.30 goals for Vanspor FK and 1.12 for Ümraniyespor. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Vanspor FK rate 0.51 in attack and 1.94 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Ümraniyespor rate 0.48 and 1.57.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Ümraniyespor, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,819 correct results out of 3,801 settled predictions (48%), with 383 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Vanspor FK the highest probability at 39%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.30 expected goals for Vanspor FK against 1.12 for Ümraniyespor. Vanspor FK's attack/defence rating is 0.51/1.94 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.48/1.57 for Ümraniyespor.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Vanspor FK at home · Ümraniyespor away
League matches only, 1. Lig, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All 1. Lig matches this season: Vanspor FK 10, Ümraniyespor 9.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
Vanspor FK
- at Boluspor23 Oct · 1. Ligwin 36%
- vs Sarıyer31 Oct · 1. Ligwin 38%
- vs Sivasspor7 Nov · 1. Ligwin 34%
- at Bodrum FK23 Nov · 1. Ligwin 17%
- vs Bursaspor29 Nov · 1. Ligwin 22%
Ümraniyespor
- vs Sivasspor24 Oct · 1. Ligwin 37%
- at Bodrum FK1 Nov · 1. Ligwin 19%
- vs Kayserispor8 Nov · 1. Ligwin 33%
- at Iğdır FK20 Nov · 1. Ligwin 22%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.