Sivasspor
vs
Sarıyer
1. Lig prediction
Our model says: Sivasspor 1–0 Sarıyer
The model makes it 46% Sivasspor, 29% draw, 25% Sarıyer — fair odds of 2.17, 3.45 and 4.00. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Sivasspor 1.49, Sarıyer 0.96.
Both teams to score: 48%. Over 2.5 goals: 44%, under 2.5: 56%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published · updated
Key facts
- Sivasspor are 11th on 12 points from 10 games; Sarıyer are 7th on 15 points from 10 games — 1. Lig.
- Sivasspor are unbeaten in their last 5 games (2 won), most recently a 1-1 draw away to Bandırmaspor.
- Sarıyer have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-4 defeat at home to Bodrum FK.
- Last 2 meetings: level at 1 win each, 0 draws; the most recent, 7 February 2026, ended Sarıyer 1–0 Sivasspor.
More TFF 1. Lig predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Sivasspor vs Sarıyer
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Sivasspor at 46% here. Across 3,801 settled matches (as of 16 October 2026), 1,771 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Sivasspor vs Sarıyer
Sivasspor
- D1-1away to Bandırmaspor13 October 2026
- W4-1Pendikspor9 October 2026
- D1-1away to Keçiörengücü19 September 2026
- D1-1Muğlaspor13 September 2026
- W2-1away to Antalyaspor6 September 2026
Sarıyer
- L1-4Bodrum FK13 October 2026
- D1-1away to Ümraniyespor9 October 2026
- W2-1Boluspor19 September 2026
- D1-1Bandırmaspor11 September 2026
- L0-3away to Keçiörengücü5 September 2026
What these results say
- Sivasspor went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- Sivasspor scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Sivasspor conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Sarıyer conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Sarıyer failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Sarıyer scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
1. Lig table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Sivasspor | 10 | 2 | 6 | 2 | 14 | 13 | +1 | 12 |
| 7 | Sarıyer | 10 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 13 | 14 | -1 | 15 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Sivasspor
Chance to finish in the top four · 6% today
Sarıyer
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 7% today
From our 1. Lig season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. Each figure is that side's chance once this match ends in a win, a draw or a defeat for it, with every other match still left to the model. Positions in the table, not competition rules: what a place is worth differs from league to league.
Head-to-head: Sivasspor vs Sarıyer
- 7 February 2026Sarıyer 1–0 Sivasspor1. Lig
- 13 September 2025Sivasspor 1–0 Sarıyer1. Lig
Leading scorers: Sivasspor and Sarıyer
Sivasspor
GoalsAssists
- R. Manaj82
Sarıyer
GoalsAssists
- B. Kör41
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Sivasspor carry a model rating of 6.36 against 6.29 for Sarıyer. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.49 goals for Sivasspor and 0.96 for Sarıyer. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Sivasspor rate 0.57 in attack and 1.53 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Sarıyer rate 0.52 and 1.61.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Sarıyer, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Sivasspor a 0.4% chance of the title and Sarıyer 0.2%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,819 correct results out of 3,801 settled predictions (48%), with 383 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Sivasspor the highest probability at 46%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.49 expected goals for Sivasspor against 0.96 for Sarıyer. Sivasspor's attack/defence rating is 0.57/1.53 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.52/1.61 for Sarıyer.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Sivasspor at home · Sarıyer away
League matches only, 1. Lig, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All 1. Lig matches this season: Sivasspor 10, Sarıyer 10.
Sivasspor score most often in the 61–75 minute window (7 goals); Sarıyer have let in 4 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
Sivasspor
- at Ümraniyespor24 Oct · 1. Ligwin 32%
- vs Boluspor1 Nov · 1. Ligwin 61%
- at Vanspor FK7 Nov · 1. Ligwin 37%
- at Bursaspor22 Nov · 1. Ligwin 17%
- vs Bodrum FK29 Nov · 1. Ligwin 36%
Sarıyer
- vs Fatih Karagümrük24 Oct · 1. Ligwin 32%
- at Vanspor FK31 Oct · 1. Ligwin 33%
- vs Iğdır FK6 Nov · 1. Ligwin 36%
- at Kayserispor21 Nov · 1. Ligwin 22%
- vs İstanbulspor29 Nov · 1. Ligwin 50%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.