Regular Season - 7 · 17 October 2026, 16:30 UTC

Atromitos vs AEK Athens FC Super League 1 postponed match

Peristeri Stadium, Peristeri
PostponedNot played

This fixture has been postponed and is not being played on this date. A replayed tie is listed by our data provider as a new fixture, with its own page, so the call below has no result to be judged against.

Before the match was called off the model made it 16% Atromitos, 24% draw, 60% AEK Athens FC — fair odds of 6.25, 4.17 and 1.67. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 0-2 (12%).

Expected goals: Atromitos 0.80, AEK Athens FC 2.03.

Both teams to score: 48%. Over 2.5 goals: 54%, under 2.5: 46%.

Model confidence: High.

One-sided: AEK Athens FC are clearly the stronger team on the model's ratings. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 68%, 20% were drawn and the underdog won 12%.

Published · updated

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Model insights: Atromitos vs AEK Athens FC

48%
Both teams to score
54%
Over 2.5 goals
46%
Under 2.5 goals

Most likely scorelines

Atromitos win Draw AEK Athens FC win
  1. 0–212%
  2. 0–111%
  3. 1–110%
  4. 1–210%
  5. 0–38%
  6. 1–37%
  7. 0–06%

Scores read Atromitos first. Each bar is the model's probability of that exact result, drawn against the likeliest one; the other scorelines it considered share the remaining 36%.

Has the model earned this number?

It puts AEK Athens FC at 60% here. Across 3,801 settled matches (as of 16 October 2026), 907 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 55.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.5%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

Form going into Atromitos vs AEK Athens FC

Atromitos

  • L1-2away to Asteras Tripolis10 October 2026
  • L1-2Kifisia19 September 2026
  • D1-1away to Iraklis 190812 September 2026
  • D1-1Kalamata6 September 2026
  • L1-2PAOK30 August 2026

AEK Athens FC

  • W3-0OFI10 October 2026
  • W2-1away to Volos NFC20 September 2026
  • D1-1away to Asteras Tripolis13 September 2026
  • W5-0Aris Thessalonikis5 September 2026
  • D1-1away to Kifisia30 August 2026

What these results say

  • Atromitos did not win any of these 5 matches.
  • Atromitos scored in every one of these 5 matches.
  • Atromitos conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
  • AEK Athens FC went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
  • AEK Athens FC scored in every one of these 5 matches.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.

Super League 1 table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
12Atromitos602459-42
2AEK Athens FC6420163+1314

Where the two sides stand. Full table

Head-to-head: Atromitos vs AEK Athens FC

  • 15 March 2026Atromitos 2–2 AEK Athens FCSuper League 1
  • 7 December 2025AEK Athens FC 4–1 AtromitosSuper League 1
  • 15 February 2025AEK Athens FC 2–1 AtromitosSuper League 1
  • 3 November 2024Atromitos 0–1 AEK Athens FCSuper League 1
  • 21 January 2024Atromitos 0–5 AEK Athens FCSuper League 1
  • 28 September 2023AEK Athens FC 2–1 AtromitosSuper League 1

Leading scorers: Atromitos and AEK Athens FC

Atromitos

GoalsAssists

  • S. Moutoussamy20

AEK Athens FC

GoalsAssists

  • B. Varga40
  • L. Jović40
  • Zini20

Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.

A clear gap in the ratings

Atromitos carry a model rating of 6.58 against 7.15 for AEK Athens FC. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.

What the model expects

Under the hood the model expects 0.80 goals for Atromitos and 2.03 for AEK Athens FC. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.

Atromitos rate 0.79 in attack and 1.35 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; AEK Athens FC rate 1.26 and 0.70.

The rest of the season

Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Atromitos a 0% chance of the title and AEK Athens FC 48.5%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.

How this was produced

Publicly tracked record so far: 1,819 correct results out of 3,801 settled predictions (48%), with 383 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.

Full method: how the model works.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.

Team comparison

Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.

Why the model favours this side

The model gives AEK Athens FC the highest probability at 60%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 0.80 expected goals for Atromitos against 2.03 for AEK Athens FC. Atromitos's attack/defence rating is 0.79/1.35 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 1.26/0.7 for AEK Athens FC.