Auckland FC
vs
Melbourne City
A-League prediction
Our model says: Auckland FC 2–1 Melbourne City
The model makes it 45% Auckland FC, 26% draw, 29% Melbourne City — fair odds of 2.22, 3.85 and 3.45. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Auckland FC 1.67, Melbourne City 1.23.
Both teams to score: 58%. Over 2.5 goals: 56%, under 2.5: 44%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Edge to Auckland FC: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.
Published · updated
Key facts
- Last 5 meetings: Auckland FC 2 wins to 1, 2 draws; the most recent, 2 May 2026, ended Auckland FC 1–1 Melbourne City.
More A-League predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Auckland FC vs Melbourne City
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Auckland FC at 45% here. Across 3,801 settled matches (as of 16 October 2026), 1,771 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Who is missing for Auckland FC vs Melbourne City
Auckland FC
- M. Francoisinactive
- O. Sailknee injury
Melbourne City
- A. Lopanemuscle injury
- M. Leckiehamstring injury
- A. NabboutinjuryDoubtful
From our data provider's injury and suspension report, refreshed twice a day. Doubtful means the player may still be named in the squad. The model's probabilities do not yet account for absences.
Head-to-head: Auckland FC vs Melbourne City
- 2 May 2026Auckland FC 1–1 Melbourne CityA-League
- 28 February 2026Auckland FC 3–0 Melbourne CityA-League
- 16 January 2026Melbourne City 2–1 Auckland FCA-League
- 18 January 2025Auckland FC 3–0 Melbourne CityA-League
- 15 December 2024Melbourne City 2–2 Auckland FCA-League
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Auckland FC carry a model rating of 6.43 against 6.3 for Melbourne City. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.67 goals for Auckland FC and 1.23 for Melbourne City. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Auckland FC rate 0.62 in attack and 1.44 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Melbourne City rate 0.55 and 1.65.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,819 correct results out of 3,801 settled predictions (48%), with 383 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Auckland FC the highest probability at 45%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.67 expected goals for Auckland FC against 1.23 for Melbourne City. Auckland FC's attack/defence rating is 0.62/1.44 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.55/1.65 for Melbourne City.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
Auckland FC
- at Western Sydney Wanderers24 Oct · A-Leaguewin 51%
- at Brisbane Roar30 Oct · A-Leaguewin 48%
- vs Wellington Phoenix7 Nov · A-Leaguewin 52%
- vs Melbourne Victory21 Nov · A-Leaguewin 41%
- at Central Coast Mariners28 Nov · A-Leaguewin 46%
Melbourne City
- at Melbourne Victory24 Oct · A-Leaguewin 31%
- vs Sydney FC31 Oct · A-Leaguewin 34%
- vs Western Sydney Wanderers7 Nov · A-Leaguewin 46%
- at Macarthur FC27 Nov · A-Leaguewin 39%
- at Perth Glory11 Dec · A-Leaguewin 38%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.