A-League predictions

11 matches ahead, from 16 October to 25 October, each with the model's win / draw / win split and most likely score. The clearest favourite: Newcastle Jets, 51% against Macarthur FC. 2 are marked Tight game — the two sides within 3 points, where the draw is a real outcome. How the model works.

Friday 16 October — 1 match

09:00 UTC Sydney FC vs Western Sydney Wanderers — model 48% / 27% / 25%, most likely 1-0, fair odds 2.08 · 3.70 · 4.00. Edge: Sydney FC

Saturday 17 October — 3 matches

04:00 UTC Auckland FC vs Melbourne City — model 45% / 26% / 29%, most likely 2-1, fair odds 2.22 · 3.85 · 3.45. Edge: Auckland FC
06:00 UTC Macarthur FC vs Perth Glory — model 39% / 25% / 36%, most likely 2-1, fair odds 2.56 · 4.00 · 2.78. Tight game · draw in reach
08:40 UTC Central Coast Mariners vs Newcastle Jets — model 29% / 24% / 47%, most likely 1-2, fair odds 3.45 · 4.17 · 2.13. Edge: Newcastle Jets

Sunday 18 October — 1 match

02:00 UTC Wellington Phoenix vs Melbourne Victory — model 29% / 24% / 47%, most likely 1-2, fair odds 3.45 · 4.17 · 2.13. Edge: Melbourne Victory

Friday 23 October — 1 match

09:00 UTC Brisbane Roar vs Perth Glory — model 34% / 27% / 39%, most likely 1-2, fair odds 2.94 · 3.70 · 2.56. Evenly matched

Saturday 24 October — 3 matches

04:00 UTC Newcastle Jets vs Macarthur FC — model 51% / 22% / 27%, most likely 2-1, fair odds 1.96 · 4.55 · 3.70. Edge: Newcastle Jets
06:00 UTC Western Sydney Wanderers vs Auckland FC — model 24% / 25% / 51%, most likely 1-2, fair odds 4.17 · 4.00 · 1.96. Edge: Auckland FC
08:40 UTC Melbourne Victory vs Melbourne City — model 43% / 26% / 31%, most likely 2-1, fair odds 2.33 · 3.85 · 3.23. Evenly matched

Sunday 25 October — 2 matches

02:00 UTC Wellington Phoenix vs Central Coast Mariners — model 36% / 25% / 39%, most likely 1-2, fair odds 2.78 · 4.00 · 2.56. Tight game · draw in reach
04:00 UTC Sydney FC vs Adelaide United — model 38% / 28% / 34%, most likely 1-0, fair odds 2.63 · 3.57 · 2.94. Evenly matched