Regular Season - 1 · 17 October 2026, 08:40 UTC

Central Coast Mariners vs Newcastle Jets A-League prediction

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Our model says: Central Coast Mariners 1–2 Newcastle Jets

The model makes it 29% Central Coast Mariners, 24% draw, 47% Newcastle Jets — fair odds of 3.45, 4.17 and 2.13. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 1-2 (9%).

Expected goals: Central Coast Mariners 1.56, Newcastle Jets 2.12.

Both teams to score: 70%. Over 2.5 goals: 71%, under 2.5: 29%.

Model confidence: Medium.

Edge to Newcastle Jets: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.

Published · updated

Key facts

  • Last 6 meetings: level at 2 wins each, 2 draws; the most recent, 25 April 2026, ended Newcastle Jets 4–0 Central Coast Mariners.

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Live win probability

From kick-off

From kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.

Model insights: Central Coast Mariners vs Newcastle Jets

70%
Both teams to score
71%
Over 2.5 goals
29%
Under 2.5 goals

Most likely scorelines

Central Coast Mariners win Draw Newcastle Jets win
  1. 1–29%
  2. 1–19%
  3. 2–27%
  4. 2–17%
  5. 1–36%
  6. 0–26%
  7. 0–15%

Scores read Central Coast Mariners first. Each bar is the model's probability of that exact result, drawn against the likeliest one; the other scorelines it considered share the remaining 52%.

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Newcastle Jets at 47% here. Across 3,801 settled matches (as of 16 October 2026), 1,771 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

Form going into Central Coast Mariners vs Newcastle Jets

Central Coast Mariners

No earlier matches on record this season.

Newcastle Jets

  • L1-3Gamba Osaka13 October 2026
  • L1-7away to Kashima15 September 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.

Who is missing for Central Coast Mariners vs Newcastle Jets

Central Coast Mariners

  • K. Popovicinactive

Newcastle Jets

  • A. Badolatoknee injury
  • O. Fryerknee injury

From our data provider's injury and suspension report, refreshed twice a day. Doubtful means the player may still be named in the squad. The model's probabilities do not yet account for absences.

Central Coast Mariners and Newcastle Jets in their domestic leagues

#TeamLeaguePWDLGFGAGDPts
16Newcastle JetsAFC Champions League Elite2002210-80

Each side's position in its own domestic league — they meet here from different competitions. Central Coast Mariners has not started the league season yet. Full tables: A-League · AFC Champions League Elite

Head-to-head: Central Coast Mariners vs Newcastle Jets

  • 25 April 2026Newcastle Jets 4–0 Central Coast MarinersA-League
  • 28 February 2026Central Coast Mariners 0–0 Newcastle JetsA-League
  • 19 October 2025Central Coast Mariners 3–2 Newcastle JetsA-League
  • 12 April 2025Newcastle Jets 6–0 Central Coast MarinersA-League
  • 1 February 2025Central Coast Mariners 2–2 Newcastle JetsA-League
  • 22 November 2024Newcastle Jets 1–2 Central Coast MarinersA-League

The two sides

Central Coast Mariners carry a model rating of 6.24 against 6.43 for Newcastle Jets. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.

The model expects goals

Under the hood the model expects 1.56 goals for Central Coast Mariners and 2.12 for Newcastle Jets. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.

Central Coast Mariners rate 0.56 in attack and 1.89 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Newcastle Jets rate 0.72 and 1.70.

How this was produced

Publicly tracked record so far: 1,819 correct results out of 3,801 settled predictions (48%), with 383 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.

Full method: how the model works.

From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.

Team comparison

Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.

Why the model favours this side

The model gives Newcastle Jets the highest probability at 47%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.56 expected goals for Central Coast Mariners against 2.12 for Newcastle Jets. Central Coast Mariners's attack/defence rating is 0.56/1.89 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.72/1.7 for Newcastle Jets.

The next 5 matches, by difficulty

Central Coast Mariners

Newcastle Jets

Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.