Lusail City
vs
Al Shamal
Stars League prediction
Our model says: Lusail City 2–1 Al Shamal
The model makes it 43% Lusail City, 26% draw, 31% Al Shamal — fair odds of 2.33, 3.85 and 3.23. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Lusail City 1.69, Al Shamal 1.34.
Both teams to score: 61%. Over 2.5 goals: 58%, under 2.5: 42%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published · updated
Key facts
- Lusail City are 8th on 5 points from 5 games; Al Shamal are 5th on 8 points from 5 games — Stars League.
- Lusail City have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 0-1 defeat away to Al Shahaniya.
- Al Shamal have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 0-4 defeat at home to Al-Duhail SC.
- Last 5 meetings: Al Shamal 4 wins to 1, 0 draws; the most recent, 20 February 2021, ended Lusail City 0–1 Al Shamal.
More Qatar Stars League predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Lusail City vs Al Shamal
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Lusail City at 43% here. Across 3,801 settled matches (as of 16 October 2026), 1,771 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Lusail City vs Al Shamal
Lusail City
- L0-1away to Al Shahaniya10 October 2026
- D0-0away to Al-Gharafa11 September 2026
- W4-0Al Wakrah4 September 2026
- D3-3away to Al Ahli Doha28 August 2026
- L0-1away to Al-Rayyan SC20 August 2026
Al Shamal
- L0-4Al-Duhail SC8 October 2026
- D1-1Al Wakrah10 September 2026
- W4-2Al Shahaniya4 September 2026
- W3-1away to Al-Gharafa27 August 2026
- D2-2away to Al-Arabi SC21 August 2026
What these results say
- Lusail City failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Al Shamal conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Al Shamal scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Al Shamal had three goals or more.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Stars League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Lusail City | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 7 | 5 | +2 | 5 |
| 5 | Al Shamal | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 10 | 10 | 0 | 8 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Lusail City vs Al Shamal
- 20 February 2021Lusail City 0–1 Al ShamalSecond Division
- 1 January 2021Al Shamal 0–1 Lusail CitySecond Division
- 29 October 2020Lusail City 1–5 Al ShamalSecond Division
- 22 January 2020Lusail City 1–2 Al ShamalSecond Division
- 24 October 2019Al Shamal 3–1 Lusail CitySecond Division
Leading scorers: Lusail City and Al Shamal
Lusail City
GoalsAssists
- F. Zavoshi30
- Rodrigo30
Al Shamal
GoalsAssists
- B. Bounedjah30
- Moufak Awad20
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Lusail City carry a model rating of 6.46 against 6.35 for Al Shamal. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.69 goals for Lusail City and 1.34 for Al Shamal. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Lusail City rate 0.56 in attack and 1.25 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Al Shamal rate 0.62 and 1.69.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Al Shamal, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,819 correct results out of 3,801 settled predictions (48%), with 383 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Lusail City the highest probability at 43%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.69 expected goals for Lusail City against 1.34 for Al Shamal. Lusail City's attack/defence rating is 0.56/1.25 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.62/1.69 for Al Shamal.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Lusail City at home · Al Shamal away
League matches only, Stars League, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Stars League matches this season: Lusail City 5, Al Shamal 5.
Al Shamal score most often in the 76–90 minute window (4 goals); Lusail City have let in 0 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
Lusail City
- at Al-Duhail SC22 Oct · Stars Leaguewin 29%
- at Al-Sailiya6 Nov · Stars Leaguewin 56%
- vs Qatar SC20 Nov · Stars Leaguewin 48%
- at Al Sadd27 Nov · Stars Leaguewin 29%
- vs Al-Arabi SC3 Dec · Stars Leaguewin 38%
Al Shamal
- vs Qatar SC22 Oct · Stars Leaguewin 45%
- vs Al-Hilal27 Oct · AFC Champions League Elitewin 14%
- at Esteghlal FC3 Nov · AFC Champions League Elitewin 14%
- at Al Sadd6 Nov · Stars Leaguewin 24%
- vs Al-Sailiya20 Nov · Stars Leaguewin 56%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.