Al Sadd
vs
Al-Duhail SC
Stars League prediction
Our model says: Al Sadd 2–1 Al-Duhail SC
The model makes it 40% Al Sadd, 23% draw, 37% Al-Duhail SC — fair odds of 2.50, 4.35 and 2.70. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Al Sadd 2.03, Al-Duhail SC 1.95.
Both teams to score: 75%. Over 2.5 goals: 76%, under 2.5: 24%.
Model confidence: Medium.
A tight game: Al Sadd and Al-Duhail SC are within 3 points of each other, so the draw is a real outcome here.
Published · updated
Key facts
- Al Sadd are 2nd on 12 points from 5 games; Al-Duhail SC are 3rd on 9 points from 5 games — Stars League.
- Al Sadd have won 4 of their last 5 games, most recently a 2-3 defeat at home to Al-Arabi SC.
- Al-Duhail SC are unbeaten in their last 5 games (2 won), most recently a 4-0 win away to Al Shamal.
- Last 6 meetings: Al Sadd 3 wins to 1, 2 draws; the most recent, 5 May 2026, ended Al-Duhail SC 1–4 Al Sadd.
More Qatar Stars League predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Al Sadd vs Al-Duhail SC
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Al Sadd at 40% here. Across 3,801 settled matches (as of 16 October 2026), 1,771 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Al Sadd vs Al-Duhail SC
Al Sadd
- L2-3Al-Arabi SC9 October 2026
- W6-3away to Al-Sailiya10 September 2026
- W4-1Al-Gharafa5 September 2026
- W6-2away to Qatar SC28 August 2026
- W3-1Al Ahli Doha22 August 2026
Al-Duhail SC
- W4-0away to Al Shamal8 October 2026
- D1-1Al Shahaniya12 September 2026
- D1-1away to Al-Rayyan SC5 September 2026
- D1-1Al-Arabi SC29 August 2026
- W2-0Al-Sailiya22 August 2026
What these results say
- Al Sadd scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Al Sadd conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Every one of these 5 matches for Al Sadd had three goals or more.
- Al-Duhail SC went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- Al-Duhail SC scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Al-Duhail SC had two goals or fewer.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Stars League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Al Sadd | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 21 | 10 | +11 | 12 |
| 3 | Al-Duhail SC | 5 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 9 | 3 | +6 | 9 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Al Sadd vs Al-Duhail SC
- 5 May 2026Al-Duhail SC 1–4 Al SaddEmir Cup
- 26 February 2026Al-Duhail SC 1–3 Al SaddStars League
- 25 September 2025Al Sadd 0–0 Al-Duhail SCStars League
- 10 May 2025Al Sadd 2–2 Al-Duhail SCQatar Cup
- 22 February 2025Al Sadd 2–0 Al-Duhail SCStars League
- 21 September 2024Al-Duhail SC 5–1 Al SaddStars League
Leading scorers: Al Sadd and Al-Duhail SC
Al Sadd
GoalsAssists
- Roberto Firmino42
- Akram Afif32
- Y. Abdurisag12
Al-Duhail SC
No player in Stars League's leading scorers — 9 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Al Sadd carry a model rating of 6.62 against 6.59 for Al-Duhail SC. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 2.03 goals for Al Sadd and 1.95 for Al-Duhail SC. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Al Sadd rate 1.01 in attack and 1.74 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Al-Duhail SC rate 0.65 and 1.12.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,819 correct results out of 3,801 settled predictions (48%), with 383 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Al Sadd the highest probability at 40%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.03 expected goals for Al Sadd against 1.95 for Al-Duhail SC. Al Sadd's attack/defence rating is 1.01/1.74 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.65/1.12 for Al-Duhail SC.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Al Sadd at home · Al-Duhail SC away
League matches only, Stars League, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Stars League matches this season: Al Sadd 5, Al-Duhail SC 5.
Al Sadd score most often in the 0–15 minute window (5 goals); Al-Duhail SC have let in 1 there.
Al-Duhail SC score most often in the 61–75 minute window (5 goals); Al Sadd have let in 1 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
Al Sadd
- at Al Shahaniya22 Oct · Stars Leaguewin 56%
- at Al-Qadisiyah FC26 Oct · AFC Champions League Elitewin 11%
- vs Al-Ahli Jeddah2 Nov · AFC Champions League Elitewin 30%
- vs Al Shamal6 Nov · Stars Leaguewin 57%
- at Al-Rayyan SC20 Nov · Stars Leaguewin 33%
Al-Duhail SC
- vs Lusail City22 Oct · Stars Leaguewin 43%
- vs Al Wakrah6 Nov · Stars Leaguewin 53%
- at Al-Gharafa20 Nov · Stars Leaguewin 54%
- vs Qatar SC27 Nov · Stars Leaguewin 56%
- at Al Ahli Doha3 Dec · Stars Leaguewin 46%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.