Kocaelispor
vs
Göztepe
Süper Lig prediction
Our model says: Kocaelispor 1–0 Göztepe
The model makes it 40% Kocaelispor, 29% draw, 31% Göztepe — fair odds of 2.50, 3.45 and 3.23. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Kocaelispor 1.33, Göztepe 1.09.
Both teams to score: 49%. Over 2.5 goals: 43%, under 2.5: 57%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published · updated
Key facts
- Kocaelispor are 7th on 12 points from 7 games; Göztepe are 15th on 6 points from 7 games — Süper Lig.
- Kocaelispor have won 3 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-2 defeat away to Beşiktaş.
- Göztepe are unbeaten in 3 games, most recently a 4-0 win away to Eyüpspor.
- Last 4 meetings: Kocaelispor 2 wins to 0, 2 draws; the most recent, 18 April 2026, ended Kocaelispor 1–1 Göztepe.
More Süper Lig predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Kocaelispor vs Göztepe
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Kocaelispor at 40% here. Across 3,801 settled matches (as of 16 October 2026), 1,771 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Kocaelispor vs Göztepe
Kocaelispor
- L1-2away to Beşiktaş11 October 2026
- W2-0Gaziantep FK19 September 2026
- L0-1away to Galatasaray13 September 2026
- W1-0Samsunspor6 September 2026
- W2-1away to Konyaspor29 August 2026
Göztepe
- W4-0away to Eyüpspor12 October 2026
- D2-2Rizespor20 September 2026
- D2-2away to Alanyaspor12 September 2026
- L2-4Gaziantep FK7 September 2026
- L2-3away to Galatasaray29 August 2026
What these results say
- Kocaelispor scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Göztepe scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Every one of these 5 matches for Göztepe had three goals or more.
- Göztepe failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Who is missing for Kocaelispor vs Göztepe
Kocaelispor
- A. Dijksteelmuscle injury
- B. Petkovichamstring injury
- M. Haidaramuscle injury
- T. Zoukroumuscle injury
- A. Jovanovicknee injuryDoubtful
- M. MaglicainjuryDoubtful
Göztepe
- F. Bayirinactive
- I. Sabraankle injury
- L. GugeshashviliinactiveDoubtful
From our data provider's injury and suspension report, refreshed twice a day. Doubtful means the player may still be named in the squad. The model's probabilities do not yet account for absences.
Süper Lig table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Kocaelispor | 7 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 8 | 6 | +2 | 12 |
| 15 | Göztepe | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 15 | 15 | 0 | 6 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Kocaelispor
Chance to finish in the top four · 6% today
Göztepe
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 18% today
From our Süper Lig season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. Each figure is that side's chance once this match ends in a win, a draw or a defeat for it, with every other match still left to the model. Positions in the table, not competition rules: what a place is worth differs from league to league.
Head-to-head: Kocaelispor vs Göztepe
- 18 April 2026Kocaelispor 1–1 GöztepeSüper Lig
- 23 November 2025Göztepe 0–0 KocaelisporSüper Lig
- 3 April 2024Kocaelispor 3–2 Göztepe1. Lig
- 4 November 2023Göztepe 0–1 Kocaelispor1. Lig
Leading scorers: Kocaelispor and Göztepe
Kocaelispor
No player in Süper Lig's leading scorers — 8 league goals as a side.
Göztepe
GoalsAssists
- Juan50
- André Henrique31
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Kocaelispor carry a model rating of 6.68 against 6.65 for Göztepe. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.33 goals for Kocaelispor and 1.09 for Göztepe. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Kocaelispor rate 0.59 in attack and 0.91 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Göztepe rate 0.91 and 1.36.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Kocaelispor a 0.1% chance of the title and Göztepe 0%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,819 correct results out of 3,801 settled predictions (48%), with 383 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Kocaelispor the highest probability at 40%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.33 expected goals for Kocaelispor against 1.09 for Göztepe. Kocaelispor's attack/defence rating is 0.59/0.91 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.91/1.36 for Göztepe.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Kocaelispor at home · Göztepe away
League matches only, Süper Lig, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Position by match
KocaelisporGöztepe
Kocaelispor are 7th after 7 Süper Lig matches (between 2nd and 18th so far); Göztepe are 15th after 7 (between 6th and 17th). Rebuilt from the season's results after each side's matches (x-axis: that side's match number); ties split on goal difference, then goals scored.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Süper Lig matches this season: Kocaelispor 7, Göztepe 7.
Göztepe score most often in the 46–60 minute window (4 goals); Kocaelispor have let in 0 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
Kocaelispor
- at Alanyaspor23 Oct · Süper Ligwin 28%
- vs Rizespor31 Oct · Süper Ligwin 42%
- at Eyüpspor7 Nov · Süper Ligwin 43%
- vs Fenerbahçe21 Nov · Süper Ligwin 23%
- at Çorum FK29 Nov · Süper Ligwin 24%
Göztepe
- vs Çorum FK25 Oct · Süper Ligwin 39%
- at Fenerbahçe31 Oct · Süper Ligwin 13%
- vs Başakşehir7 Nov · Süper Ligwin 34%
- at Erzurumspor FK22 Nov · Süper Ligwin 42%
- vs Trabzonspor30 Nov · Süper Ligwin 28%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.