Trabzonspor
vs
Beşiktaş
Süper Lig prediction
Our model says: Trabzonspor 2–1 Beşiktaş
The model makes it 45% Trabzonspor, 25% draw, 30% Beşiktaş — fair odds of 2.22, 4.00 and 3.33. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Trabzonspor 1.80, Beşiktaş 1.37.
Both teams to score: 63%. Over 2.5 goals: 61%, under 2.5: 39%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published · updated
Key facts
- Trabzonspor are 5th on 13 points from 7 games; Beşiktaş are 2nd on 15 points from 7 games — Süper Lig.
- Trabzonspor have won 3 of their last 5 games, most recently a 3-0 win away to Samsunspor.
- Beşiktaş have won 4 of their last 5 games, most recently a 2-1 win at home to Kocaelispor.
- Last 6 meetings: Beşiktaş 3 wins to 1, 2 draws; the most recent, 9 May 2026, ended Beşiktaş 1–2 Trabzonspor.
More Süper Lig predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Trabzonspor vs Beşiktaş
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Trabzonspor at 45% here. Across 3,801 settled matches (as of 16 October 2026), 1,771 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Trabzonspor vs Beşiktaş
Trabzonspor
- W3-0away to Samsunspor10 October 2026
- W4-0Galatasaray19 September 2026
- L0-1away to Konyaspor12 September 2026
- W5-0Gençlerbirliği S.K.6 September 2026
- L1-2away to Amed31 August 2026
Beşiktaş
- W2-1Kocaelispor11 October 2026
- L2-3away to Amed20 September 2026
- W3-0Erzurumspor FK11 September 2026
- W2-1away to Fenerbahçe5 September 2026
- W6-2Çorum FK31 August 2026
What these results say
- Trabzonspor scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Trabzonspor had three goals or more.
- Beşiktaş scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Every one of these 5 matches for Beşiktaş had three goals or more.
- Beşiktaş won 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Süper Lig table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Trabzonspor | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 16 | 5 | +11 | 13 |
| 2 | Beşiktaş | 7 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 16 | 8 | +8 | 15 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Trabzonspor
Chance to finish in the top four · 63% today
Beşiktaş
Chance to finish in the top four · 66% today
From our Süper Lig season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. Each figure is that side's chance once this match ends in a win, a draw or a defeat for it, with every other match still left to the model. Positions in the table, not competition rules: what a place is worth differs from league to league.
Head-to-head: Trabzonspor vs Beşiktaş
- 9 May 2026Beşiktaş 1–2 TrabzonsporSüper Lig
- 14 December 2025Trabzonspor 3–3 BeşiktaşSüper Lig
- 15 February 2025Beşiktaş 2–1 TrabzonsporSüper Lig
- 15 September 2024Trabzonspor 1–1 BeşiktaşSüper Lig
- 23 May 2024Beşiktaş 3–2 TrabzonsporTürkiye Kupası
- 4 February 2024Beşiktaş 2–0 TrabzonsporSüper Lig
Leading scorers: Trabzonspor and Beşiktaş
Trabzonspor
GoalsAssists
- Mohamed Salah73
- E. Muçi22
Beşiktaş
GoalsAssists
- D. Vlahović60
- V. Černý21
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Trabzonspor carry a model rating of 6.92 against 6.9 for Beşiktaş. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.80 goals for Trabzonspor and 1.37 for Beşiktaş. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Trabzonspor rate 1.08 in attack and 0.93 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Beşiktaş rate 1.12 and 1.01.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Beşiktaş, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Trabzonspor a 11.3% chance of the title and Beşiktaş 15.2%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,819 correct results out of 3,801 settled predictions (48%), with 383 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Trabzonspor the highest probability at 45%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.80 expected goals for Trabzonspor against 1.37 for Beşiktaş. Trabzonspor's attack/defence rating is 1.08/0.93 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 1.12/1.01 for Beşiktaş.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Trabzonspor at home · Beşiktaş away
League matches only, Süper Lig, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Position by match
TrabzonsporBeşiktaş
Trabzonspor are 3rd after 7 Süper Lig matches (between 3rd and 10th so far); Beşiktaş are 2nd after 7 (between 1st and 11th). Rebuilt from the season's results after each side's matches (x-axis: that side's match number); ties split on goal difference, then goals scored.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Süper Lig matches this season: Trabzonspor 7, Beşiktaş 7.
Beşiktaş score most often in the 16–30 minute window (4 goals); Trabzonspor have let in 1 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
Trabzonspor
- vs Heart of Midlothian22 Oct · UEFA Europa Conference Leaguewin 63%
- at Rizespor26 Oct · Süper Ligwin 50%
- vs Gaziantep FK1 Nov · Süper Ligwin 67%
- vs SC Freiburg5 Nov · UEFA Europa Conference Leaguewin 41%
- at Alanyaspor8 Nov · Süper Ligwin 43%
Beşiktaş
- vs Crystal Palace22 Oct · UEFA Europa Leaguewin 52%
- vs Başakşehir26 Oct · Süper Ligwin 48%
- at Kasımpaşa1 Nov · Süper Ligwin 45%
- at Celtic5 Nov · UEFA Europa Leaguewin 35%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.