Kasımpaşa
vs
Samsunspor
Süper Lig prediction
Our model says: Kasımpaşa 1–0 Samsunspor
The model makes it 48% Kasımpaşa, 27% draw, 25% Samsunspor — fair odds of 2.08, 3.70 and 4.00. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Kasımpaşa 1.63, Samsunspor 1.04.
Both teams to score: 53%. Over 2.5 goals: 50%, under 2.5: 50%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published · updated
Key facts
- Kasımpaşa are 9th on 10 points from 7 games; Samsunspor are 17th on 4 points from 7 games — Süper Lig.
- Kasımpaşa have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-3 defeat away to Galatasaray.
- Samsunspor have not won in their last 5 games, most recently a 0-3 defeat at home to Trabzonspor.
- Last 6 meetings: Kasımpaşa 3 wins to 2, 1 draw; the most recent, 8 August 2026, ended Kasımpaşa 3–0 Samsunspor.
More Süper Lig predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Kasımpaşa vs Samsunspor
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Kasımpaşa at 48% here. Across 3,801 settled matches (as of 16 October 2026), 1,771 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Kasımpaşa vs Samsunspor
Kasımpaşa
- L1-3away to Galatasaray9 October 2026
- D0-0Konyaspor18 September 2026
- W2-1away to Gençlerbirliği S.K.13 September 2026
- D2-2Amed6 September 2026
- D1-1away to Başakşehir30 August 2026
Samsunspor
- L0-3Trabzonspor10 October 2026
- L0-1away to Erzurumspor FK20 September 2026
- L1-5Çorum FK12 September 2026
- L0-1away to Kocaelispor6 September 2026
- L0-2Fenerbahçe30 August 2026
What these results say
- Kasımpaşa failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Kasımpaşa scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Kasımpaşa conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Samsunspor did not win any of these 5 matches.
- Samsunspor conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Samsunspor failed to score in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Who is missing for Kasımpaşa vs Samsunspor
Kasımpaşa
- K. Corekciachilles tendon injury
- A. KarapoinjuryDoubtful
- M. Ouanesmuscle injuryDoubtful
Samsunspor
- J. Assoumoumuscle injury
- C. YukselinjuryDoubtful
From our data provider's injury and suspension report, refreshed twice a day. Doubtful means the player may still be named in the squad. The model's probabilities do not yet account for absences.
Süper Lig table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Kasımpaşa | 7 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 8 | 8 | 0 | 10 |
| 17 | Samsunspor | 7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 6 | 15 | -9 | 4 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Kasımpaşa
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 5% today
Samsunspor
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 48% today
From our Süper Lig season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. Each figure is that side's chance once this match ends in a win, a draw or a defeat for it, with every other match still left to the model. Positions in the table, not competition rules: what a place is worth differs from league to league.
Head-to-head: Kasımpaşa vs Samsunspor
- 8 August 2026Kasımpaşa 3–0 SamsunsporFriendlies Clubs
- 30 January 2026Kasımpaşa 0–1 SamsunsporSüper Lig
- 17 September 2025Samsunspor 0–0 KasımpaşaSüper Lig
- 29 March 2025Samsunspor 0–2 KasımpaşaSüper Lig
- 26 October 2024Kasımpaşa 1–4 SamsunsporSüper Lig
- 27 April 2024Kasımpaşa 1–0 SamsunsporSüper Lig
Leading scorers: Kasımpaşa and Samsunspor
Kasımpaşa
GoalsAssists
- A. Benedyczak41
Samsunspor
No player in Süper Lig's leading scorers — 6 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Kasımpaşa carry a model rating of 6.63 against 6.51 for Samsunspor. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.63 goals for Kasımpaşa and 1.04 for Samsunspor. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Kasımpaşa rate 0.69 in attack and 1.10 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Samsunspor rate 0.72 and 1.43.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Kasımpaşa a 0.1% chance of the title and Samsunspor 0%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,819 correct results out of 3,801 settled predictions (48%), with 383 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Kasımpaşa the highest probability at 48%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.63 expected goals for Kasımpaşa against 1.04 for Samsunspor. Kasımpaşa's attack/defence rating is 0.69/1.1 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.72/1.43 for Samsunspor.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Kasımpaşa at home · Samsunspor away
League matches only, Süper Lig, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Position by match
KasımpaşaSamsunspor
Kasımpaşa are 9th after 7 Süper Lig matches (between 2nd and 9th so far); Samsunspor are 16th after 7 (between 2nd and 16th). Rebuilt from the season's results after each side's matches (x-axis: that side's match number); ties split on goal difference, then goals scored.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Süper Lig matches this season: Kasımpaşa 7, Samsunspor 7.
Kasımpaşa score most often in the 76–90 minute window (3 goals); Samsunspor have let in 0 there.
Samsunspor score most often in the 31–45 minute window (2 goals); Kasımpaşa have let in 2 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
Kasımpaşa
- at Eyüpspor24 Oct · Süper Ligwin 44%
- vs Beşiktaş1 Nov · Süper Ligwin 28%
- at Gaziantep FK6 Nov · Süper Ligwin 35%
- vs Alanyaspor22 Nov · Süper Ligwin 38%
- at Rizespor27 Nov · Süper Ligwin 32%
Samsunspor
- vs Amed24 Oct · Süper Ligwin 25%
- at Başakşehir1 Nov · Süper Ligwin 17%
- vs Konyaspor7 Nov · Süper Ligwin 38%
- at Galatasaray21 Nov · Süper Ligwin 12%
- vs Gençlerbirliği S.K.28 Nov · Süper Ligwin 43%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.