Fenerbahçe
vs
Alanyaspor
Süper Lig prediction
Our model says: Fenerbahçe 2–0 Alanyaspor
The model makes it 64% Fenerbahçe, 21% draw, 15% Alanyaspor — fair odds of 1.56, 4.76 and 6.67. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-0 (11%).
Expected goals: Fenerbahçe 2.35, Alanyaspor 0.89.
Both teams to score: 54%. Over 2.5 goals: 63%, under 2.5: 37%.
Model confidence: High.
One-sided: Fenerbahçe are clearly the stronger team on the model's ratings. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 68%, 20% were drawn and the underdog won 12%.
Published · updated
Key facts
- Fenerbahçe are 4th on 13 points from 7 games; Alanyaspor are 6th on 12 points from 7 games — Süper Lig.
- Fenerbahçe are unbeaten in 3 games, most recently a 3-0 win away to Rizespor.
- Alanyaspor are unbeaten in 4 games, most recently a 0-0 draw at home to Erzurumspor FK.
- Last 6 meetings: Fenerbahçe 4 wins to 0, 2 draws; the most recent, 18 January 2026, ended Alanyaspor 2–3 Fenerbahçe.
More Süper Lig predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Fenerbahçe vs Alanyaspor
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Fenerbahçe at 64% here. Across 3,801 settled matches (as of 16 October 2026), 907 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 55.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.5%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Fenerbahçe vs Alanyaspor
Fenerbahçe
- W3-0away to Rizespor10 October 2026
- W8-0Eyüpspor20 September 2026
- D0-0away to Gaziantep FK14 September 2026
- L1-2Beşiktaş5 September 2026
- W2-0away to Samsunspor30 August 2026
Alanyaspor
- D0-0Erzurumspor FK10 October 2026
- W2-1away to Çorum FK19 September 2026
- D2-2Göztepe12 September 2026
- W1-0away to Rizespor7 September 2026
- L1-2away to Eyüpspor30 August 2026
What these results say
- Fenerbahçe scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Fenerbahçe kept a clean sheet in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Alanyaspor scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Who is missing for Fenerbahçe vs Alanyaspor
Fenerbahçe
- J. Oosterwoldeachilles tendon injury
- M. Muldurknee injury
Alanyaspor
- Maestrothigh injuryDoubtful
From our data provider's injury and suspension report, refreshed twice a day. Doubtful means the player may still be named in the squad. The model's probabilities do not yet account for absences.
Süper Lig table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Fenerbahçe | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 19 | 6 | +13 | 13 |
| 6 | Alanyaspor | 7 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 8 | 6 | +2 | 12 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Fenerbahçe
Chance to win the league · 32% today
From our Süper Lig season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. Each figure is that side's chance once this match ends in a win, a draw or a defeat for it, with every other match still left to the model. Positions in the table, not competition rules: what a place is worth differs from league to league.
Head-to-head: Fenerbahçe vs Alanyaspor
- 18 January 2026Alanyaspor 2–3 FenerbahçeSüper Lig
- 17 September 2025Fenerbahçe 2–2 AlanyasporSüper Lig
- 9 February 2025Alanyaspor 0–2 FenerbahçeSüper Lig
- 30 August 2024Fenerbahçe 3–0 AlanyasporSüper Lig
- 11 February 2024Fenerbahçe 2–2 AlanyasporSüper Lig
- 24 September 2023Alanyaspor 0–1 FenerbahçeSüper Lig
Leading scorers: Fenerbahçe and Alanyaspor
Fenerbahçe
GoalsAssists
- V. Muriqi61
- M. Greenwood42
- O. Aydın23
Alanyaspor
No player in Süper Lig's leading scorers — 8 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Fenerbahçe carry a model rating of 7.04 against 6.67 for Alanyaspor. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 2.35 goals for Fenerbahçe and 0.89 for Alanyaspor. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Fenerbahçe rate 1.37 in attack and 0.95 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Alanyaspor rate 0.71 and 1.04.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Fenerbahçe a 31.5% chance of the title and Alanyaspor 0.1%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,819 correct results out of 3,801 settled predictions (48%), with 383 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Fenerbahçe the highest probability at 64%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.35 expected goals for Fenerbahçe against 0.89 for Alanyaspor. Fenerbahçe's attack/defence rating is 1.37/0.95 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.71/1.04 for Alanyaspor.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Fenerbahçe at home · Alanyaspor away
League matches only, Süper Lig, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Position by match
FenerbahçeAlanyaspor
Fenerbahçe are 3rd after 7 Süper Lig matches (between 3rd and 17th so far); Alanyaspor are 5th after 7 (between 3rd and 8th). Rebuilt from the season's results after each side's matches (x-axis: that side's match number); ties split on goal difference, then goals scored.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Süper Lig matches this season: Fenerbahçe 7, Alanyaspor 7.
Fenerbahçe score most often in the 0–15 minute window (6 goals); Alanyaspor have let in 0 there.
Alanyaspor score most often in the 61–75 minute window (4 goals); Fenerbahçe have let in 1 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
Fenerbahçe
- vs Slavia Praha20 Oct · UEFA Champions Leaguewin 40%
- at Galatasaray26 Oct · Süper Ligwin 37%
- vs Göztepe31 Oct · Süper Ligwin 70%
- vs Liverpool4 Nov · UEFA Champions Leaguewin 48%
- at Çorum FK8 Nov · Süper Ligwin 49%
Alanyaspor
- vs Kocaelispor23 Oct · Süper Ligwin 39%
- at Gençlerbirliği S.K.2 Nov · Süper Ligwin 37%
- vs Trabzonspor8 Nov · Süper Ligwin 29%
- at Kasımpaşa22 Nov · Süper Ligwin 31%
- vs Konyaspor27 Nov · Süper Ligwin 44%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.