Başakşehir
vs
Gaziantep FK
Süper Lig prediction
Our model says: Başakşehir 2–0 Gaziantep FK
The model makes it 61% Başakşehir, 22% draw, 17% Gaziantep FK — fair odds of 1.64, 4.55 and 5.88. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-0 (11%).
Expected goals: Başakşehir 2.21, Gaziantep FK 0.92.
Both teams to score: 54%. Over 2.5 goals: 61%, under 2.5: 39%.
Model confidence: High.
One-sided: Başakşehir are clearly the stronger team on the model's ratings. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 68%, 20% were drawn and the underdog won 12%.
Published · updated
Key facts
- Başakşehir are 11th on 8 points from 7 games; Gaziantep FK are 12th on 8 points from 7 games — Süper Lig.
- Başakşehir have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 0-0 draw away to Konyaspor.
- Gaziantep FK are without a win in 3 games, most recently a 0-3 defeat at home to Çorum FK.
- Last 6 meetings: Başakşehir 5 wins to 1, 0 draws; the most recent, 16 May 2026, ended Gaziantep FK 1–2 Başakşehir.
More Süper Lig predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Başakşehir vs Gaziantep FK
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Başakşehir at 61% here. Across 3,801 settled matches (as of 16 October 2026), 907 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 55.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.5%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Başakşehir vs Gaziantep FK
Başakşehir
- D0-0away to Konyaspor11 October 2026
- W4-0Gençlerbirliği S.K.19 September 2026
- L0-5away to Amed13 September 2026
- L2-3Galatasaray4 September 2026
- D1-1Kasımpaşa30 August 2026
Gaziantep FK
- L0-3Çorum FK11 October 2026
- L0-2away to Kocaelispor19 September 2026
- D0-0Fenerbahçe14 September 2026
- W4-2away to Göztepe7 September 2026
- L1-2Rizespor29 August 2026
What these results say
- Başakşehir failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Gaziantep FK failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Gaziantep FK conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Süper Lig table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Başakşehir | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 10 | 11 | -1 | 8 |
| 12 | Gaziantep FK | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 7 | 10 | -3 | 8 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Başakşehir
Chance to finish in the top four · 21% today
Gaziantep FK
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 29% today
From our Süper Lig season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. Each figure is that side's chance once this match ends in a win, a draw or a defeat for it, with every other match still left to the model. Positions in the table, not competition rules: what a place is worth differs from league to league.
Head-to-head: Başakşehir vs Gaziantep FK
- 16 May 2026Gaziantep FK 1–2 BaşakşehirSüper Lig
- 22 December 2025Başakşehir 5–1 Gaziantep FKSüper Lig
- 20 April 2025Başakşehir 2–1 Gaziantep FKSüper Lig
- 23 November 2024Gaziantep FK 3–0 BaşakşehirSüper Lig
- 24 February 2024Gaziantep FK 0–2 BaşakşehirSüper Lig
- 7 October 2023Başakşehir 2–0 Gaziantep FKSüper Lig
Leading scorers: Başakşehir and Gaziantep FK
Başakşehir
GoalsAssists
- E. Shomurodov60
Gaziantep FK
No player in Süper Lig's leading scorers — 7 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Başakşehir carry a model rating of 6.82 against 6.5 for Gaziantep FK. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 2.21 goals for Başakşehir and 0.92 for Gaziantep FK. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Başakşehir rate 0.99 in attack and 1.05 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Gaziantep FK rate 0.67 and 1.35.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Başakşehir a 1.7% chance of the title and Gaziantep FK 0%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,819 correct results out of 3,801 settled predictions (48%), with 383 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Başakşehir the highest probability at 61%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.21 expected goals for Başakşehir against 0.92 for Gaziantep FK. Başakşehir's attack/defence rating is 0.99/1.05 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.67/1.35 for Gaziantep FK.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Başakşehir at home · Gaziantep FK away
League matches only, Süper Lig, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Position by match
BaşakşehirGaziantep FK
Başakşehir are 11th after 7 Süper Lig matches (between 1st and 13th so far); Gaziantep FK are 12th after 7 (between 3rd and 12th). Rebuilt from the season's results after each side's matches (x-axis: that side's match number); ties split on goal difference, then goals scored.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Süper Lig matches this season: Başakşehir 7, Gaziantep FK 7.
Başakşehir score most often in the 61–75 minute window (3 goals); Gaziantep FK have let in 0 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
Başakşehir
- at Beşiktaş26 Oct · Süper Ligwin 27%
- vs Samsunspor1 Nov · Süper Ligwin 62%
- at Göztepe7 Nov · Süper Ligwin 41%
- vs Çorum FK23 Nov · Süper Ligwin 49%
- at Eyüpspor29 Nov · Süper Ligwin 58%
Gaziantep FK
- vs Erzurumspor FK24 Oct · Süper Ligwin 44%
- at Trabzonspor1 Nov · Süper Ligwin 13%
- vs Kasımpaşa6 Nov · Süper Ligwin 35%
- at Gençlerbirliği S.K.21 Nov · Süper Ligwin 30%
- vs Amed28 Nov · Süper Ligwin 25%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.