Esenler Erokspor
vs
Mardin 1969
1. Lig prediction
Our model says: Esenler Erokspor 1–0 Mardin 1969
The model makes it 34% Esenler Erokspor, 34% draw, 32% Mardin 1969 — fair odds of 2.94, 2.94 and 3.13. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Esenler Erokspor 0.92, Mardin 1969 0.87.
Both teams to score: 36%. Over 2.5 goals: 27%, under 2.5: 73%.
Model confidence: Low.
A tight game: Esenler Erokspor and Mardin 1969 are within 3 points of each other, so the draw is a real outcome here.
Published · updated
Key facts
- Esenler Erokspor are 16th on 8 points from 9 games; Mardin 1969 are 5th on 18 points from 10 games — 1. Lig.
- Esenler Erokspor have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-1 draw away to Manisa F.K..
- Mardin 1969 have won 3 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-0 win at home to Fatih Karagümrük.
- Last 2 meetings: Esenler Erokspor 1 win to 0, 1 draw; the most recent, 26 February 2022, ended Esenler Erokspor 3–0 Mardin 1969.
More TFF 1. Lig predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Esenler Erokspor vs Mardin 1969
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Esenler Erokspor at 34% here. Across 3,801 settled matches (as of 16 October 2026), 2,969 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.5% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.6%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Esenler Erokspor vs Mardin 1969
Esenler Erokspor
- D1-1away to Manisa F.K.15 October 2026
- W1-0away to İstanbulspor10 October 2026
- L0-2Fatih Karagümrük19 September 2026
- D2-2away to Bursaspor13 September 2026
- L0-3Kayserispor7 September 2026
Mardin 1969
- W1-0Fatih Karagümrük15 October 2026
- W2-1away to Bursaspor11 October 2026
- L0-1Kayserispor20 September 2026
- L0-1away to Iğdır FK13 September 2026
- W1-0Bodrum FK7 September 2026
What these results say
- Esenler Erokspor failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Esenler Erokspor conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Mardin 1969 had two goals or fewer.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
1. Lig table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | Esenler Erokspor | 9 | 1 | 5 | 3 | 5 | 10 | -5 | 8 |
| 5 | Mardin 1969 | 10 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 12 | 6 | +6 | 18 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Esenler Erokspor
Chance to finish in the top four · 5% today
Mardin 1969
Chance to finish in the top four · 46% today
From our 1. Lig season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. Each figure is that side's chance once this match ends in a win, a draw or a defeat for it, with every other match still left to the model. Positions in the table, not competition rules: what a place is worth differs from league to league.
Head-to-head: Esenler Erokspor vs Mardin 1969
- 26 February 2022Esenler Erokspor 3–0 Mardin 19693. Lig - Group 3
- 13 October 2021Mardin 1969 1–1 Esenler Erokspor3. Lig - Group 3
Leading scorers: Esenler Erokspor and Mardin 1969
Esenler Erokspor
No player in 1. Lig's leading scorers — 5 league goals as a side.
Mardin 1969
GoalsAssists
- T. Teklić31
- O. Kayode31
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Esenler Erokspor carry a model rating of 6.43 against 6.58 for Mardin 1969. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
The model expects a tight, low-scoring game
Under the hood the model expects 0.92 goals for Esenler Erokspor and 0.87 for Mardin 1969. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Esenler Erokspor rate 0.55 in attack and 1.31 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Mardin 1969 rate 0.55 and 1.03.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Mardin 1969, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Esenler Erokspor a 0.4% chance of the title and Mardin 1969 8.9%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,819 correct results out of 3,801 settled predictions (48%), with 383 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Esenler Erokspor the highest probability at 34%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 0.92 expected goals for Esenler Erokspor against 0.87 for Mardin 1969. Esenler Erokspor's attack/defence rating is 0.55/1.31 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.55/1.03 for Mardin 1969.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Esenler Erokspor at home · Mardin 1969 away
League matches only, 1. Lig, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All 1. Lig matches this season: Esenler Erokspor 9, Mardin 1969 10.
Esenler Erokspor score most often in the 16–30 minute window (2 goals); Mardin 1969 have let in 0 there.
Mardin 1969 score most often in the 46–60 minute window (4 goals); Esenler Erokspor have let in 0 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
Esenler Erokspor
- at Batman Petrolspor25 Oct · 1. Ligwin 31%
- vs Keçiörengücü30 Oct · 1. Ligwin 37%
- at Muğlaspor7 Nov · 1. Ligwin 34%
- vs Antalyaspor22 Nov · 1. Ligwin 39%
- at Boluspor29 Nov · 1. Ligwin 46%
Mardin 1969
- vs Manisa F.K.26 Oct · 1. Ligwin 53%
- at İstanbulspor1 Nov · 1. Ligwin 45%
- vs Batman Petrolspor8 Nov · 1. Ligwin 53%
- vs Bandırmaspor21 Nov · 1. Ligwin 39%
- at Muğlaspor29 Nov · 1. Ligwin 38%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.